Redeployment nowhere in sight
by: Mousa Qous and Khader Khader
The past few weeks have witnessed a culmination of crisis in both Palestinian and Israeli circles. The internal dilemmas of the two governments have had varying impacts on the common denominator between the two: the peace process and more specifically the issue of redeployment. How the impact of these crisis will ultimately reflect on the peace process is yet to be seen. However, enough signs have indicated that the future does not look very promising.
Last week's Palestinian Legislative Council meeting proved to be the climax of the PA's internal affairs. The session was forced to a halt when the Council proposed and ultimatum to the executive authority: if the council refuses to reshuffle the ministerial cabinet, they would give them a no-confidence vote. As a , Palestinian president Arafat met with the Fateh block to discuss the hearing committee's report which sketched out the various overridings of the executive authority and later delivered a speech via presidential secretary Tayeb Abdel Rahim announcing the new cooperation between the executive authority and the legislative council. Arafat has promised to take steps to improve administrative performance which include the reshuffling in the ministerial cabinet in the coming months and the presentation of the annual budget by the end of January. The president also took the decision to close the General Control Office file.
Although the president's speech did succeed in easing a substantial amount of tension between the council and the executive authority, according to LC member Nabil Amr, the Palestinians still need an effective mechanism in which to regulate and normalize relationships between the two.
If anything, the internal problems in the PA only helped in their position on Israeli redeployment. Their united stance is one of rejection towards the proposed redeployment maps and an insistence that Israel simply commit to agreements previously signed. However, ironically, it is the impact of the crisis within Israel which is now a source of worry for the Palestinians.
The resignation of foreign minister David Levy has caused panic and uncertainty within the Israeli government. Prime Minister Netanyahu is now faced with an unsure future for his coalition government and the possibility of early elections. And the right-wing Mefdal party is threatening to withdraw from the government if Netanyahu redeploys from more than 10 percent of West Bank lands.
It is the issue of redeployment which is the greatest concern for the Palestinians. As they see it, Netanyahu will use the excuse of Levi's resignation to further stall progress on the subject. And since one of Levi's reasons for resigning was because of his disagreement over redeployment, Netanyahu will have to please his remaining coalition members in order to sustain. Therefore, as usual, the Palestinians are the best scapegoat and the peace process is the best victim. Palestinians also expressed concern that Levi's resignation will only further encourage more extremist right-wing parties and pressure Netanyahu into conceding less and less. One indication of this is the results of a poll conducted by the Yediot Ahranot newspaper which questioned members of the coalition parties. The majority of respondents believe that the current Israeli government will not be able to resolve future crisis, primarily that of redeployment, and support the expansion of the coalition to, most likely, include more right-wing groups such as Moledet. If this is to happen, the government will take on a much more stringent attitude towards the peace process.
The role of the United States is no more promising. Their bias towards Israel is obvious in the latest visit by Middle East envoy Dennis Ross who came bearing a four-point agenda, one of them being the security issue. This shows the US support for the latest security document submitted to the Knesset for ratification which demands certain conditions from Palestinians before any redeployment takes place. The most important of these conditions is the extradition of wanted Palestinians to Israel and the disarming of extremists. Palestinians are waiting to see if the US is going to take on the role of an active sponsor or merely a mediator who brings the two parties to the negotiating table which would probobly only push them deeper into the stalemate.
The bottom line is that no matter what direction future events take, redeployment will not be implemented for at least another four months - at best. That is, whether this means early Israeli elections, or if Israel's security demands are somehow met, or if the situation stays the same. In any scenario, the implementation of redeployment which is satisfactory to both sides is nowhere on the horizon.