JMCC Public Opinion Poll No. 12

On Palestinian Elections

January 1996

Methodology

A random sample of 1,199 Palestinians, over the age of 18 years, were interviewed throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 11and 21 January 1996. The interviews were conducted on randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 74 sampling points chosen randomly according to population.

In the West Bank, 776 people were surveyed from the following areas: Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Beit Jala, Beit Sahour, Deiheishe Refugee Camp (RC), Al-'Ibeidieh, and Nahaleen; Hebron: Hebron, Yatta, Dura, Al-Fawwar RC, Al-Dahrieh, Beit Ummar, Al-Aroub (RC), Halhoul, Sa'ir, Shyoukh; Jerusalem: Jerusalem, al-'Izaria, al-Ram, Dahyat al Barid, Abu Dies, Shufat, Beit Hanina, Old City, Al-Tour, Jabal al-Mukaber. Jenin, Jenin, Jenin RC, Ya'bad, Yamoun, 'Aqba, al-Zababdeh, al-Shuhadah. Nablus Area: Nablus, Balta RC, Assira al-Shamalieh, Beita, Askar, Talouza, Beit Fureek, Ein Beit al-ma, Awarta, Kuful Haris, Sabastua, and Qabalan. Ramallah area: Ramallah, Al-Bireh, Jalzon (RC), Jifna, Deir Dibwan, Beit Liqia, Arourah, Deir Ammar. Tulkarem and Qalqilia area: Tulkarem, Qalqilia, Tuklarem (RC), Salfit, Irtah, Bala', Beit Lied. Jericho: Jericho.

In the Gaza Strip, 423 people were surveyed from: Gaza city, Deir al-Balah, Deir al-Balah RC, Nusseirat RC, Rafah, Jabalya, Jabalya a-Nazala, Jabalya RC, Khan Younis, Khan Youns RC, Nusseriat RC, Rafah, Shati RC, Burij RC, Maghazi RC, and 'Abasan.

The major of error is 3%, with a confidence level of 95%.

Sample Distribution
Results

Q.1 In General, what is the extent of your optimism towards the Palestinian future. Would you say you are very optimistic, somewhat optimistic, or pessimistic?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Optimistic
37.5% 
36.3%
39.7%
Somewhat optimistic 
47.0%
47.4%
46.1%
Pessimistic
13.6%
13.7%
13.5%
No opinion
1.9%
2.6%
0.7%

Q.2 In general, do you believe that the presence of a Palestinian Council would bring changes to the better, to the worse, or will it make no difference?
 
Total 
West Bank 
 Gaza Strip 
Changes to the better
68.8%
67.5%
71.2%
Changes to the worse
4.7%
6.1%
2.1%
Will not make any difference 
17.3%
16.1%
19.6%
No opinion
9.2%
10.3%
7.1%

Q.3 Which of the following radios do you listen to most?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Radio Jordan
15.1% 
20.0%
6.1%
Radio Israel
26.7%
25.1%
29.6%
Radio Palestine 
38.7%
36.9%
42.1%
Others
14.0%
13.0%
15.8%
No Opinion
5.5%
5.0%
6.4%

Q. 4 Which of the local newspapers do you trust most to provide you with information about the elections?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Al-Ayyam
2.4%
1.5%
4.0%
Al-Istiqlal
1.8%
0.6%
3.8%
Al-Hayat Al-Jadida 
7.4%
3.9%
13.9%
Al-Watan
1.0%
0.4%
2.1%
Al-Quds
57.9%
64.6%
45.6%
Al-Manar
0.9% 
0.6%
1.5%
Al-Nahar
5.4%
5.9%
4.5%
Al-Aqsa
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Al-Shaab
0.3%
0.4%
0.0%
Al-Karamah
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
Al-Bilad
0.8%
0.6%
0.9%
Others
1.6%
1.9%
0.9%
No Opinion
20.4%
19.1%
22.7%

Q.5 Are you satisfied about the coverage of the local newspapers to the elections?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Very satisfied
24.4% 
19.1%
34.0%
Somewhat satisfied
39.8% 
44.3%
31.7%
Not at all satisfied 
15.3% 
14.0%
17.5%
No answer
20.5%
22.6%
16.8%

Q.6 What is your opinion about the role of the Palestinian radio and television towards the upcoming elections? Do you think they perform their duties in a neutral or biased manner?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
They do their work in a neutral manner 
49.0%
44.2%
57.9%
They do their work in a biased manner 
21.4%
18.3%
27.0%
No opinion
29.6%
37.5%
15.1%

Q. 7 In general are you satisfied about the fairness of the election process?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Yes
51.5%
48.5%
57.0%
Somewhat satisfied 
25.2%
27.3%
21.3%
No
11.3%
11.9%
10.2%
No opinion
12.0%
12.3%
11.5%

Q. 8 In general, to what extent would you say that you are comfortable with the PA's arrangements and organization of the peace process?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
The election arrangements are well organized 
43.6%
41.5%
47.5%
The election arrangements are somewhat organized 
36.3%
36.2%
36.4%
The election arrangements are badly managed
7.8%
8.0%
7.6%
No opinion
12.3%
14.3%
8.5%

Q.9 Have you decided on whom are you going to vote for in your constituencey?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Yes
64.1%
63.1%
66.0%
No
30.6%
30.3%
31.2%
No opinion 
5.3%
6.6%
2.8%

Q.10 Which Palestinian political or religious faction do you trust most?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Fateh
38.9%
36.6%
43.0%
Hamas
12.3%
10.6%
15.6%
PFLP
2.3%
1.4%
3.8%
Islamic Jihad 
1.4%
0.5%
2.8%
PPP
1.8%
2.6%
0.5%
Fida
0.9%
1.2%
0.5%
DFLP
0.6%
0.8%
0.2%
Other Islamic parties 
1.9%
1.3%
3.1%
I do not trust anyone 
17.1%
20.2%
11.3%
Others
1.5%
1.8%
0.5%
No opinion
21.9%
23.8%
18.9%

Q.11 Which is the Palestinian personality that you trust most?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Arafat
41.0%
38.8%
45.2%
Ahmed Yassin
3.2%
2.6%
4.3%
George Habash
0.9%
0.5%
1.7%
Haidar Abdul Shafi 
7.2%
4.1%
12.8%
Faisal Husseni
1.3%
1.4%
0.9%
Hanan Ashrawi
3.0%
4.4%
0.5%
Nabil Sha'ath
1.0%
0.8%
1.4%
Mahmoud Zahar
1.0%
--
1.4%
Do not trust anyone 
11.4%
13.5%
7.6%
Others
13.2%
14.6%
12.1%
No opinion
16.8%
19.3%
12.1%

Q.12 Would you vote for someone who is from outside the party/faction you trust most?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Yes
59.2%
53.1%
70.4%
No
22.9%
24.4%
20.1%
No opinion 
17.9%
22.5%
9.5%

Q.13 In General, to what extent would you say you trust Palestinian political or religious parties?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
I trust them 
53.4%
51.9%
56.0%
I do not trust them 
22.8%
23.5%
21.5%
No opinion 
23.8%
24.6%
22.5%

Q.14 On What bases would you say you would choose the candidate? Would you say that you would choose them on personal bases or on their political affiliation?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
On the bases of their personal merits 
49.8%
49.5%
50.4%
On the bases of their political affiliation 
28.1%
27.6%
29.1%
Other reasons
14.0%
13.3%
15.4%
No opinion
8.1%
9.6%
5.1%

Q.15 What is your opinion of the attitude of the opposition towards the election. Do you believe their position is right or wrong?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Their position is right 
16.7%
16.5%
17.0%
Their position is wrong 
63.2%
60.2%
68.8%
No opinion 
20.1%
23.3%
14.2%

Q.16 What, in your opinion, is the role of the international observers? Do you believe their role is important or biased?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Impartial
55.3%
53.5%
58.6%
Biased
14.7%
13.3%
17.3%
No opinion 
30.0%
33.2%
24.1%

Q.17 Are you going to vote in the election of the President of the Council?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Yes
83.9%
80.8%
89.6%
No
8.4%
8.8%
7.8%
No opinion 
7.7%
10.4%
2.6%

Q.18 Whom are you going to vote for in the Presidential election: Arafat or Samiha Khalil?
 
Total 
West Bank
Gaza Strip 
Yasser Arafat 
80.7%
83.9%
78.8%
Samiha Khalil
7.2%
6.1%
7.8%
I will cast an empty ballot paper 
4.0%
 3.7%
4.1%
No opnion
8.1%
6.3%
9.3%

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