JMCC Public Opinion Poll No. 18

On Palestinian Attitudes Towards Current Issues

December 1996

Introduction
  1. As for Palestinian public opinion regarding the peace process and the PNA, it is clear that these indicators have gone down to the level of the pre-September incidents. The popularity of Fateh declined from 42% in October to 35.2% in December. The supporters of the Oslo Agreement also declined from 23.5% in October to 19.7% in December. As for those who are very optimistic about the future, the percentage fell from 19% in October to 12.4% in December. Trust in President Arafat has also declined from 44.5% to 41.2%.
  2. Major changes were observed in this poll regarding the public confidence in the media. Confidence in Palestinian TV increased from 26.5% in August to 41.3% in December (it is worth mentioning that the majority of West Bankers 30.8% trust Jordan TV, as compared to 4.1% in the Gaza Strip). As for radio, confidence in Radio Palestine increased from 33.4% to 44.5%. The second is Israel Radio, and the third is Radio Monte Carlo.
  3. As for final status issues, 84.1% of the public opposed any final solution proposing annexing Israeli settlements to Israel in return for giving the Palestinian land near the Egyptian borders. Moreover, the Palestinian opposed the idea of keeping present Jerusalem unified under Israeli sovereignty while having Abu Deis as a Palestinian Capital.
  4. Only 24% of the Palestinians surveyed say that the Palestinian Council fulfills their aspirations adequately. 48.3% said that the Council represents them but with no effect.


    5. This survey continued to show previous differences that were observed between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Those who said they are very optimistic in the West Bank is 10% compared to 17% in the Gaza Strip. This is also true for the strong supporters of the interm agreement. Whereas only 15.6% in the West Bank said that they strongly support the agreement, the percentage in the Gaza Strip is 31.4% in the West Bank. The same applies to support for President Arafat who enjoys more support in the Gaza Strip (51.9%) than in the West Bank (35.7%).

Methodology

A random sample of 1,152 Palestinians, over the age of 18 years, were interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 13 and 14 December 1996. The interviews were conducted on randomly selected homes, and the sub jects inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 83 sampling points chosen randomly according to population.

In the West Bank, 757 people were surveyed from the following areas: Bethlehem area, Bethlehem, Beit-Sahour, Beit-Jala, Hussan, Ertass and Nahaleen; Hebron area, Hebron, Al-Fawwar RC, Al-Dahrieh, Beit Ummar, Beni Naiem; Jerusalem, al-Ram, Dahyet al-Bareed, Shufat, Beit Hanina, Old City, Hizma, Anata, Shu'fat RC, Noba, Beit Ello, Wad El-Joz; Jenin, Jenin RC, Tobass, Masilya, Anza, Fakou', Beit Qad; Nablus/Salfit Area: Nablus, Askar RC, Far'a RC, Salfit, Kufr Al-Deik, Deir Sharaf, Beit Eiba, Huwara, Ein Yabous, Deir Al-Hatab, Azzmout; Ramallah area: Ramallah, Jaba', Mukhmas, Beirzeit, Kobar, Deir Abu Misha'al, Shoukba, Beit E'mmar, Liban al-Sharkiya; Tulkarem and Qalqilia area: Tulkarem, Qalqilia, Tulkarem, Azzoun, Kufr al-Thulth, Safareen Beit Lied; Jericho area: Jericho, Jeftlik, Aqabet Jaber RC....

In the Gaza Strip, 395 people were surveyed from: Gaza City, Deir al-Balah, Deir al-Balah RC, Nusseirat RC, Rafah, Jabalya, Jabaly a-Nazala, Jabalya RC, Khan Younis, Khan Younis RC, Nusseirat RC, Rafah, Shati RC, Maghazi RC, and 'Abasan, Nur Shames RC, Beni Shila, Erttah, Sheikh Radwan, Sheikh Agaleen, Shaboura, Rimal, Al-Faloujeh.

The major of error is 3% with a confidence level of 95%.

Sample Distribution
Results

Q.1 In general, what is the extent of your optimism towards the Palestinian future? Would you say you are very optimistic, somewhat optimistic, or pessimistic?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Optimistic
12.4% 
10.0%
17.0%
Somewhat optimistic 
62.2%
62.2%
62.3%
Pessimistic
18.4%
20.2%
14.9%
Very Pessimistic 
5.9%
6.2%
5.1%
No opinion
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%

Q.2 After the elapse of sufficient time on the implementation of the Oslo Agreement, to what extent would you say you support or oppose this agreement?
 
Total 
West Bank 
 Gaza Strip 
Strongly support
19.7%
15.6%
27.6%
Somewhat support 
55.2%
55.9%
53.9%
Do not support
19.1%
21.7%
14.2%
No opinion 
6.0%
6.9%
4.3%

Q.3 What is your evaluation of the performance of the PNA after one year of its assumption of authorities? Would you say it s good, average, or poor?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Good
37.8%
36.6%
40.0%
Average
44.8%
44.5%
45.3%
Poor
14.2%
14.5%
13.7%
No opinion 
3.2%
4.4%
1.0%

Q.4 In general would you say you support or oppose the peace process?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Support the peace process 
78.1%
75.8%
82.5%
Oppose the peace process
14.1%
14.7%
13.2%
No opinion
7.7%
9.5%
4.3%

Q.5 Which political or religious party do you trust most?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Fateh
35.2%
31.4%
42.3%
Hamas
10.3%
8.3%
14.2%
PFLP
3.2%
4.0%
1.8%
DFLP
0.4%
0.5%
0.3%
Islamic Jihad 
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
PPP
0.5%
0.7%
0.3%
FIDA
0.9%
1.2%
0.3%
Democratic Coalition 
0.1%
0.1%
--
Other Islamic Movements 
3.8%
4.5%
2.5%
Secularists supporting peace 
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
Secularists opposing peace
0.1%
--
0.3%
PLO
1.0% 
1.5%
--
Do not trust anyone
27.0% 
27.2%
26.6%
No opinion
15.9% 
18.9%
10.2%

Q.6 Which Palestinian personality you trust most?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Yasser Arafat
41.2% 
35.7%
51.9%
Ahmed Yassin
4.8%
3.4%
7.3%
George Habash
1.8%
2.5%
0.5%
Haidar Abdul Shafi 
4.2%
3.7%
5.1%
Faisal Husseni
1.6%
2.2%
0.3%
Hanan Ashrawi
2.2%
2.1%
2.3%
Others
12.3%
12.2%
12.6%
Do not trust anyone 
19.5%
21.8%
15.2%
No opinion
12.4%
16.4%
4.8%

Q.7 To what extent would you say that the Palestinian (legislative) Council represents the aspirations of the Palestinian people?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Represents the Palestinian people well
24.0%
22.5%
26.8%
Represents the Palestinian people but to no effect 
48.3%
48.6%
47.6%
Represents the people in a bad way
14.8%
14.5%
15.2%
No opinion
13.0%
14.4%
10.4%

Q.8 Which radio station do you trust most?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Voice of Palestine
44.5%
46.2%
41.3%
Israel Radio
10.2%
10.3%
10.1%
Jordan Radio 
8.0%
11.8%
0.8%
BBC Radio
5.0%
4.6%
5.8%
Monte Carlo Radio 
10.2%
8.7%
12.9%
Egypt Radio 
2.5%
1.2%
5.1%
Others
9.6%
9.2%
10.6%
Do not trust anyone 
2.4%
2.8%
1.8%
No opinion
7.6%
5.7%
11.4%

Q.9 Which television station do you trust most?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Palestine TV
41.3% 
28.0%
66.8%
Israel TV
7.4%
7.4%
7.3%
Jordan TV
21.6%
30.8%
4.1%
Egypt TV
4.0%
0.8%
10.1%
Others
13.2%
18.2%
4.8%
Do not trust anyone 
4.9%
1.7%
2.8%
No opinion
7.6%
2.2%
3.8%

Q.10 Which Newspaper you trust most?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Al-Quds Newspaper
52.6%
53.9%
50.1%
Al-Ayyam Newspaper
8.6%
9.5%
6.8%
Al-Nahar Newspaper
3.2%
3.2%
3.3%
Al-Hayat Newspaper
7.6%
4.1%
14.4%
Al-Bilad Newspaper
0.7%
0.3%
1.5%
Al-Haq and Al-Hurieh Newspaper 
3.6%
4.6%
1.8%
Others
0.5% 
0.4%
0.5%
Do not trust anyone
3.2%
3.9%
1.8%
No Opinion
19.8%
20.1%
19.5%

Q.11 In the framework of the final status negotiations, would you support the idea that says that Israel could annex settlement blocs that comprise a Jewish majority in return for land to be given to the Palestinians near the Egyptian borders?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Agree
6.7% 
8.1%
4.1%
Disagree
84.1% 
80.8%
90.4%
No opinion 
9.2% 
11.1%
5.6%

Q.12 In the framework of the final status negotiations, do you agree with the idea that says that settlers could remain under Palestinian sovereignty?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
I agree
24.4%
30.5%
12.7%
I disagree 
70.0%
61.8%
85.6%
No opinion 
5.7%
7.7%
1.8%

Q.13 In the framework of the final status negotiations, do you agree that the solution to the refugee issue woud be to grant them with the right of return only to the Paestinian state only, or would you say that the solution should guarantee their right to return back to their homes that they were forced to leave in 1948?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
I agree that their return be limited to the Palestinian state 
19.4% 
23.6%
11.1%
The solution should guarantee their right to return back to their homes that they were forced to leave in 1948
73.2% 
68.3%
85.6%
No opinion 
7.4% 
8.1%
6.3%

Q.14 In the framework of the final status negotiations, do you support the idea that says that Jerusalem remains unified and a capital of Israel, and to have Jerusalem (Abu Deis), which lies outside the boundaries of present Jerusalem, as the Palestinian Capital, and provided that the Aqasa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock be outside Israel's sovereignty and administered by the Palestinian?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Agree
9.0% 
9.5%
8.1%
Disagree
85.0% 
83.4%
88.1%
No opinion 
6.0% 
7.1%
3.8%

Q.15 Looking at the political and economic changes after the establishment of the PA, would you say that your economic condition and living standard became better, worse, or remained the same?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
Better than before
9.0%
8.7%
9.6%
Worse than before 
47.9%
42.1%
59.0%
The same
40.3%
46.2%
28.9%
No opinion
2.8%
2.9%
2.5%

Q.16 Whom in your opinion is the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
PNA
18.1% 
17.2%
20.0%
PLO
25.3%
27.9%
20.3%
PLO & PNA
38.2%
36.1%
42.3%
I do not know 
9.9%
9.0%
11.6%
No opinion
8.5%
9.9%
5.9%

Q.17 Whom, in your opinion, should be the reference (who should be responsible for the other), the PLO or the PNA?
 
Total 
West Bank 
Gaza Strip 
The PLO is responsible for the PNA 
37.7% 
38.4%
36.2%
The PNA is responsible for the PLO
19.2%
18.0%
21.5%
There is no defference between both 
32.0%
31.0%
33.9%
No opinion
11.1%
12.5%
8.4%

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