JMCC Public Opinion Poll No. 30

On Palestinian - Israeli Peace Index

February 1999

in cooperation with Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research, Tel Aviv University,

People-to-people Program

Introduction

Despite the obstacles that have been standing in the way of the Israel-Palestinian peace negotiations in the last couple of years, a majority in both sides remained optimistic regarding the future of the peace process in general: 60.2% of the Israelis and 68.2% of the Palestinians feel either optimistic or very optimistic about it.

However, a deeper look into the attitudes of both sides, as reflected in their respective answers to more specific questions, reveals a clear discrepancy between their attitudes, as well as lower levels of optimism in both sides on very important aspects of the process:

The Israeli public is generally more supportive of the peace process and more confident of its success than the Palestinian public. Still, 64.3 of the Israelis and 61.4 of the Palestinians support or strongly support today the Oslo Process. However while 28.2% of the Israelis strongly support Oslo, only 5.9% of Palestinians hold this attitude; the total ratio of Israelis who oppose or strongly oppose Oslo is 29% compared with 36.3% among Palestinians. Furthermore, 14.5% of the Israelis strongly believe in the prospects of the Oslo Accords to achieve peace between the two parties while only 6.3% of Palestinians hold this belief.

A striking discrepancy between the Israelis and the Palestinians emerges in regard to the idea of an independent Palestinian state: while 64.7% of the Israelis oppose the establishment of a Palestinian State with the 1967 borders (including East Jerusalem) as a part of the final solution to the conflict), 52.7% of the Palestinians support this idea. Furthermore, while 73.8% of Israelis actually believe that the Oslo process will bring about a Palestinian state, only 47.9% of Palestinians share this view.

Another interesting difference is revealed in the two sides' assessment of the "other side" authority's sincerity in pursuing peace: 61.5% of the Israelis consider the Palestinian Authority sincere in pursuing peace, while only 11% of the Palestinians believe that the Israeli government is sincere in this regard. On the other hand, 88.5% of the Palestinians do not believe in Israel's genuine desire for peace as opposed to 38% among Israelis who think so about the Palestinian Authority.

The same pattern is seen in the two sides' attitudes when relating to the question of who is more responsible for the deadlock in the peace process. 70% of the Palestinians see Israel as entirely or mostly responsible for it. Only 7.4% of them put some blame on their side while 20.1% believe it is both sides' fault. Among Israelis, however, 46.6% see the deadlock as the shared responsibility of both sides, while 25% attribute the responsibility to Israel and only 22.5% consider it the Palestinians' fault.

There is a deep contradiction in opinions between both peoples over the preferred solution to the Jerusalem controversy: While, 70.4% of the Israelis reject any solution that makes East Jerusalem the capital of Palestine, 91.3% of Palestinians reject any solution that keeps Jerusalem the unified capital of Israel. However, almost no difference was found between the two sides' understanding the present situation in Jerusalem: 49.2% of the Israelis agree or strongly agree that Jerusalem is practically divided and 48% of the Palestinians share this belief.

Comparing these results with those of a similar opinion poll conducted in December 1997, one can notice relatively small changes occurring, with a few exceptions only. For example, in late 1997 only 9% of the Israelis felt that their personal security had improved since the launching of the peace process, while in this survey 21% of the respondents expressed such sense of improvement. Among the Palestinians, however, the sense of personal security declined from 64.2% in 1997 to 45.9% at the present.

Methodology

Israeli survey (Arab & Jews)

Two random samples of Israelis (Jews and Arabs) over the age of 18 were interviewed by telephone on 24-25 February 1999. The Jewish sample included 500 respondents; a representative sample of the adult Jewish population (including residents of the settlements in the territories and kibbutzim). The Arab sample included 501 respondents, a representative sample of the Muslim, Christian and Druz populations. Notably, the Arab population in this age cohort accounts for only 12 percent of the Israeli population; we had to use a disproportionately large sample in order correctly to analyze this population group by its subgroups. Obviously, when data for the total population were computed, the Arab population was weighted in accordance with its correct proportion. Thus, the data in the "Total" column of the tables below predominantly reflect the attitudes of the Jewish public. The margin of error in a sampling of this size is 4.5%. 

Sample distribution

Gender
 
Arabs
Jews
Male 
49.6%
48.8%
Female
50.4%
51.2%

Age
 
Arabs
Jews
18-22
19.2%
13.3%
23-29
22.1%
18.2%
30-39
26.4%
18.55
40-49
16.1%
18.0%
50-59
7.2%
12.2%
60+
9.1%
19.8%

Education
 
Arabs  Jews
No formal eduation  6.2% --
Elementary ( up to 8 years)  32.4% 5.6%
Secondary education (9-12 years)  44.4% 19.9%
Higher education (13+ years) 17.1% 44.4%

Area of residence
 
Arabs  Jews
Jerusalem & Shfela 5.6% 19.3%
Center ( Gush Dan & Sharon) 11.0% 43.3%
North (Haifa & Galilee) 79.6% 26.2%
South & Negev 3.8% 11.2%

Religion (Arab sample only)

Muslim 72.1%, Christian 16.5%, Druz 8.5%, Other 2.8

Methodology

Palestinian Survey

A random sample of 1201 people over the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 25,26 February 1999. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen randomly according to population.

In the-West Bank, 761 people were surveyed from the following areas: Jenin: Jenin, Jenin refugee camp, al - Yamoun, Kufr Dan, Ya'bad, 'Arabeh, Tubas, Zabadeh, Kufr Rai' and Fahmeh. Tulkarem: Tulkarem, Thinabeh, Tulkarem refugee camp, 'Anabta, and 'Ateel. Qalqilia: Qalqilia and 'Azzoun. Hebron: Hebron, Yatta, a-Dhahiria, Bani Na'im, Beit Ummar, 'Aroub refugee camp, Tarqoumia, a-Shyoukh and Sa'eer. Bethlehem. Bethlehem, Beit Sahour, 'Azza refugee camp, Bateer and al-Khader. Jericho: Jericho. Ramallah & Jerusalem: al-Bireh, al-'Amari refugee camp, Ramallah, Beitunia, Beit Rima, al-Mazra al-Sarqia, a-Ram, a-Dahya, Beit Liqia, Qalandia refugee camp, Shufat, Beit Hanina, Shufat refugee camp, old city of Jerusalem, Wadi al-Joz, Sheikh Jarrah and Ras al-Amoud.

In the Gaza Strip, 440 people were surveyed from: Gaza North: Jabalia refugee camp, Jabalia, Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun. Gaza: Sheikh Radwan, a-Darji, a-Tufah, Sabra, a-Zeitoon, a-Nasser, a-Sujaeih, a-Rimal and Shati refugee camp. Deir al- Balah: Nusseirat -Yo unis: 'Abassan refugee camp, Deir al-Balah refugee camp, Deir al- Balah. Khan al-Saghira, Khan Younis refugee camp, Khan Younis and Bani Suheila. Rafah: Rafah, Rafah refugee camp and Tal al-Sultan. 

Sample Distribution
Occupation respondents

Students 1 1.0%; Laborers 14.8%; Housewives 34.5%; Farmers/fishermen 2.9%;

Craftsmen 2.1 %; Unemployed 6.1 %; Retired 1.7%; Businessmen/private business 8.5%;

Employees e.g. secretaries/municipal employees/teachers/nurses 14.9%;

  • Professionals - e.g. doctors/lawyers/ pharmacists/engineers 1.4%; No answer 2.1 %.

    •  

     

    Results

    Q.1 How optimistic or pessimistic are you about reaching a peaceful Arab-Israeli settlement? Would you say you are:
     
    Israel
    		 Palestine
    Arabs Jews  Total West Bank  Gaza Strip Total 
    Very Optimistic 
    17.9
    16.4
    17.0
    4.7
    11.1
    7.1
    Optimistic
    61.3
    41.9
    43.2
    61.1
    61.1
    61.1
    Pessimistic
    15.9
    25.2
    23.9
    24.7
    19.3
    22.7
    Very Pessimistic
    2.9
    11.3
    10.3
    9.3
    8.0
    8.8
    Don't Know
    2.0
    5.2
    5.5
    0.2
    0.5
    0.3

    Q.2 What do you think about the Oslo formula, would you say you strongly support it, support it, oppose it or strongly oppose it?
     
    Israel
    		 Palestine
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza
    Total
    Strongly support 
    21.6
    29.0
    28.2
    5.7
    6.4
    5.9
    Support
    68.9
    35.3
    36.1
    54.7
    54.3
    54.5
    Oppose
    1.6
    11.3
    10.3
    22.7
    26.1
    24.0
    Strongly oppose
    7.9
    20.0
    18.7
    12.9
    11.4
    12.3
    Don't Know
    --
    --
    --
    4.0
    1.8
    3.3

    Q.3 Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo agreement between Israel and the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the Palestinians in the coming years?
     
    Israel
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs
    Jews
    Total
    West Bank 
    Gaza
    Total 
    Greatly believe 
    19.0
    14.1
    14.5
    7.1
    5.0
    6.3
    Somewhat believe 
    48.5
    32.4
    33.6
    29.6
    26.6
    28.5
    In the middle
    12.5
    18.2
    18.4
    25.2
    27.5
    26.1
    Somewhat don't believe
    10.2
    11.8
    11.5
    13.0
    22.3
    10.4
    Certainly don't believe
    4.3
    21.2
    19.4
    21.6
    17.5
    20.1
    Don't Know
    5.5
    2.4
    2.6
    3.5
    1.1
    2.6

    Q. 4 In your opinion, is there a chance that the Oslo Process will eventually result in the establishment of a genuine independent Palestinian State?
     
    Israel 
    Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Surely yes
    16.7
    36.3
    33.5
    12.4
    7.3
    10.5
    Probably yes
    46.9
    39.6
    40.3
    38.2
    35.9
    37.4
    Probbly no 
    18.2
    10.3
    11.5
    23.5
    32.3
    26.7
    Surely no
    6.2
    6.8
    6.9
    23.3
    22.7
    23.1
    Don't Know
    12.1
    7.1
    7.7
    2.6
    1.8
    2.3

    Q.5 Do you agree or disagree with the idea of establishing a Palestinian State with 1967 borders (including East Jerusalem) as a part of the final solution to the Palestinian - Israeli conflict?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total 
    Agree
    68.0
    11.3
    17.4
    58.2
    43.2
    52.7
    In the middle
    15.7
    12.0
    12.9
    18.9
    28.2
    22.3
    Disagree
    5.0
    72.7
    64.7
    19.8
    25.2
    21.8
    Don't know
    11.3
    3.9
    5.0
    3.1
    3.4
    3.2

    Q. 7 How genuine do you think the present Israeli Government (Palestinian Authority) is about reaching peace with the Palestinians (Israel). Would you say that it is: very genuine, genuine, not genuine, not genuine at all?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Very genuine 
    38.3
    17.2
    19.8
    0.7
    0.5
    0.6
    Genuine
    46.2
    41.4
    41.7
    10.1
    8.0
    9.3
    Not genuine
    6.7
    17.6
    16.1
    35.5
    37.7
    36.3
    Not genuine at all 
    1.5
    19.9
    18.0
    52.0
    52.3
    52.1
    Don't know
    7.3
    3.9
    4.4
    1.7
    1.5
    1.7

    Q. 8 If the issue of Jerusalem is the last obstable to the signing of the peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians, will you then agree that (for the Palestinians and Israeli Arabs) the city of Jerusalem will remain the unified capital of Israel (for the Israeli Jews) East Jerusalem will be the capital of the Palestinian State?
     
    Israel
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Agree
    22.5
    25.6
    1.8
    2.5
    2.1
    Disagree
    69.3
    70.4
    91.6
    90.9
    91.3
    Don't know
    8.2
    4.0
    6.6
    6.6
    6.6

    Q. 8 To what extent, do you agree or disagree to the argument that Jerusalem is already practically divided between East and West?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Strongly agree
    20.2
    18.3
    18.6
    20.5
    5.7
    15.1
    Agree
    43.1
    29.9
    30.6
    37.0
    25.9
    33.0
    Fairly disagree
    18.2
    14.2
    14.7
    15.0
    31.1
    20.9
    Strongly disagree
    9.3
    34.4
    31.7
    22.6
    33.6
    26.6
    Don't know
    9.2
    3.2
    3.9
    4.9
    3.6
    4.4

    Q. 9 What, in your opinion, is the best and final solution to the Jerusalem problem?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Unified capital of Israel 
    2.1
    59.3
    52.1
    0.4
    0.7
    0.5
    West Jerusalem is the capital of Israel,The Old City is under a joint sovereignty, and East Jerusalem is under Palestinian sovereignty
    5.7
    13.2
    12.1
    2.4
    5.0
    3.3
    East Jerusalem as the capital of the Palestinian State and West Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Israel.
    33.2
    5.0
    8.5
    37.1
    18.6
    30.3
    Jerusalem as an open city and capital of Palestine
    32.3
    8.6
    11.6
    16.2
    8.2
    13.2
    International Jerusalem
    16.7
    10.0
    11.4
    18.2
    15.0
    17.1
    Unified Capital of Palestine
    --
    --
    --
    4.9
    17.3
    9.4
    Capital of Palestine
    --
    --
    --
    15.4
    28.2
    20.1
    Capital of Muslims
    --
    --
    --
    3.0
    1.4
    2.4
    Other
    3.9
    --
    --
    0.1
    0.6
    0.4
    Don't know
    6.2
    3.9
    4.3
    2.3
    5.0
    3.3

    Q. 10 And now after the elapse of sometime since the peace process started, would you say that your sense of personal security is better than before, about the same or worse?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Better than before
    33.6
    20.1
    21.0
    45.9
    50.9
    47.7
    About the same
    46.3
    57.0
    56.0
    32.1
    26.1
    29.9
    Worsen than before
    10.8
    20.5
    19.9
    20.8
    22.3
    21.3
    Don't know
    9.3
    2.4
    3.2
    1.2
    0.7
    1.1

    Q. 11 How about our economy in general, since the peace process started, would you say that it is better than before the peace process, about the same or worse?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Better than before
    11.0
    10.7
    10.4
    17.9
    17.0
    17.6
    About the same
    26.6
    30.2
    30.1
    28.6
    32.2
    26.6
    Worse than before
    55.7
    51.6
    52.3
    52.3
    58.2
    54.5
    Don't know
    6.7
    7.5
    4.0
    1.2
    1.6
    1.3

    Q. 12 In your opinion, is it possible that after the singing of peace agreement between Israel and the Arabs a "New Middle East" will evolve, similar to the situation in Europe today - no wars, joint economic and political institutions, and borders open to people and goods? Possible immediately following the signing of the peace agreement, possible in the near future, possible but in the far future, not possible at all?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Possible immediately following the signing of the peace agreement
    12.2
    3.3
    4.3
    2.0
    2.6
    2.0
    Possible in the near future
    37.9
    21.2
    23.0
    12.1
    7.7
    10.5
    Possible but in the far future
    28.0
    45.1
    42.9
    41.9
    37.7
    40.4
    Not possible at all
    13.6
    26.9
    25.6
    37.8
    48.9
    41.9
    Don't know
    8.2
    3.5
    4.3
    6.2
    3.7
    5.2

    Q. 13 What is your opinion in the following argument: Even if peace agreement is reachecd, it si preferable for the Palestinians to have a close and clear border with Isreal, to maintain full separation between the two entities?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Strongly agree
    9.5
    54.6
    49.3
    14.3
    11.4
    13.2
    Agree
    45.8
    27.9
    30.1
    39.7
    35.2
    38.1
    Disagree
    21.1
    6.8
    8.6
    24.0
    32.3
    27.1
    Strongly disagree 
    8.1
    6.7
    6.8
    12.7
    15.2
    13.7
    Don't know
    15.6
    4.0
    5.1
    9.3
    5.9
    7.9

    Q. 14 Did you have in the past or do you have today any personal or business relationships with Israelis (Palestinians) civilians?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Yes (fo to 14-1)
    66.4
    19.8
    25.1
    27.7
    22.3
    25.7
    No
    32.7
    79.5
    74.3
    71.9
    77.7
    74.0
    Don't know
    0.9
    0.6
    0.6
    0.4
    0.0
    0.3

    Q. 14-1 And how do you describe these relations? Pleasant relationships, unpleasant relationships, sometimes pleasant sometimes unpleasant?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Pleasant
    80.9
    70.5
    73.4
    51.2
    35.7
    46.3
    Unpleasant
    1.7
    5.4
    4.1
    11.4
    17.3
    13.3
    Sometimes pleasant/

    Sometimes unpleasant
    17.2
    23.1
    21.7
    35.5
    42.9
    37.9
    Don't know/No answer
    0.3
    1.1
    0.8
    1.9
    4.1
    2.5

    Q. 15 Would you mind an Israeli (Palestinian) to be your friend?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Yes (go to 15-1)
    7.7
    26.5
    24.2
    45.9
    61.4
    51.1
    No
    90.3
    69.1
    71.4
    49.1
    35.9
    44.4
    Don't know
    2.0
    4.4
    4.4
    5.0
    2.7
    4.1

    Q. 15-1 If a peace settlement is reached between the Israelis and the Palestinians in the future, would you still have a problem taking an Israeli (Palestinian) as a friend?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Yes
    38.5
    71.7
    71.5
    74.1
    81.1
    77.2
    No
    27.7
    17.7
    17.7
    18.4
    13.7
    16.3
    Don't know
    33.8
    10.6
    10.8
    7.5
    5.2
    6.5

    Q. 16 Now Iam going to show you a list of characteristics that could be used to describe the Israelis (Palestinians), using the following scale (show scale), pleace indicate how you describe the Israelis (Palestinians).
     
    Violent
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    1- Non Violent
    34.1
    6.7
    9.6
    3.5
    6.8
    4.7
    2
    11.1
    8.7
    8.6
    2.8
    5.2
    3.7
    3
    27.1
    33.7
    33.0
    16.8
    16.8
    16.0
    4 
    7.2
    16.1
    15.1
    23.0
    23.0
    17.9
    5. Violent
    15.0
    21.2
    20.5
    48.2
    48.2
    57.6
    Don't know
    5.5
    13.6
    12.7
    0.1
    0.0
    0.1
    Honest
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    1. Dishonest
    10.2
    23.3
    21.9
    49.5
    7.0
    50.0
    2
    6.5
    11.4
    10.9
    17.1
    8.2
    17.0
    3
    21.6
    30.9
    29.9
    18.4
    23.0
    17.2
    4
    15.7
    10.2
    10.8
    7.0
    26.1
    7.7
    5. Honest
    39.5
    8.7
    12.0
    7.9
    35.2
    8.1
    Don't know
    6.5
    15.5
    14.5
    0.1
    0.0
    0.0
    Intelligent
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    1. Unintelligent
    1.2
    16.1
    14.5
    8.4
    7.0
    7.9
    2
    4.5
    14.3
    13.3
    7.4
    8.2
    7.7
    3
    11.2
    33.5
    31.1
    18.8
    23.0
    20.3
    4
    12.2
    13.5
    13.4
    21.0
    26.1
    22.9
    5. Intelligent
    65.4
    7.7
    13.9
    44.4
    35.2
    41.0
    Don't know
    5.5
    14.8
    13.8
    0.0
    0.5
    0.2

    Q. 17 Who is more responsible for the deadlock in the peace process: the Israeli or the Palestinian side, would you say only the Israeli side, mostly the Israeli side, only the Palestinian side, mostly the Palestinian side, both sides are responsible to the same degree, neither side is responsible?
     
    Israel 
    		 Palestine 
    Arabs 
    Jews 
    Total 
    West Bank 
    Gaza 
    Total
    Only the Israeli side
    11.2
    6.6
    7.5
    40.1
    48.9
    43.3
    Mostly the Israeli side
    16.2
    18.1
    17.5
    26.1
    27.3
    26.6
    Only the Palestinian side
    6.4
    8.4
    8.1
    4.5
    4.8
    4.6
    Mostly the Palestinian side
    6.1
    16.8
    15.4
    3.0
    2.5
    2.8
    Both sides are responsible to the same degree
    51.6
    45.6
    46.6
    23.3
    14.8
    21.1
    Neither side is responsible 
    3.5
    1.1
    1.3
    1.7
    1.7
    1.1
    Don't know
    5.0
    3.4
    3.6
    1.3
    0.0
    1.5

    [Back to Polls 1999]         [Back to Polls 1998]          [Go to Polls 2000]         [Back to Polls Page]