JMCC Public Opinion Poll No. 34 - Part
I
On Palestinian - Israeli Attitudes Towards Palestinian Refugees
December 1999
Introduction
Comparative Findings for the Survey of Israeli
Jews, Arab Israelis (Palestinians in Israel), and the Palestinians in the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip
This Public Opinion Poll is a joint project
between the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center in Jerusalem and the
Tami Steinmetz Center in Tel Aviv. It was conducted in October 1999.
-
Most Palestinians consider the refugee problem to be the
second most important and difficult after Jerusalem, whilst most Israeli
Jews consider it least important and not very difficult issue to be resolved
within the framework of the final status talks.
-
The majority of the Jewish population (57.2%) believes that
the Palestinian refugees should be settled in their present place of residence.
In contrast, 53.2% of the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza and 54.9%
of the Arab Israelis consider the right of return of refugees to their
place of origin inside Israel as paramount.
-
Most West Bank and Gaza Palestinians (59%) and 60.8% of the
Israeli Palestinians blame the Jewish forces for creating the Palestinian
refugee problem and 31% of the Israeli Jews hold the Jewish forces responsible
for creating the refugee problem whilst 29.9% of this population stated
that the refugees left voluntarily.
-
73.6% of the Arab Israelis and 49.9% of the West bank and
Gaza respondents blame Israel (only or mainly) for being responsible for
creating the refugee problem. 35.5% of the Jewish population in Israel
blamed both Israel and the Arab world for creating the refugee problem
whilst 11.8% blamed Israel (only or mainly).
-
More than 80% of the West Bankers and Gazans believe that
the implementation of UN Resolution 194 which calls for the right of return
and compensation of the refugees as a fair solution to the refugee problem.
Only 4.5% of the Israeli Jews said so despite the fact that only 25.3%
of the Israeli Jews oppose the international law principle which calls
for the return of refugees to their place of return after the cessation
of hostilities.
In general, there is a stark contrast between
Palestinians in general and Israeli Jews. On every question, Jewish respondents
adopted a harsher stance on the refugee issue, while more Palestinians
blamed Israel for the refugee problem. In contrast to the Palestinians
in the West Bank and Gaza, as well as those in Israel, Israeli Jewish respondents
placed the refugee issue overall in fifth place in terms of overall difficulty
and in terms of overall importance among the various topics to be discussed
up during final status negotiations. The Palestinians in the West Bank
and the Gaza Strip placed the refugee issue in second place both in terms
of difficulty and importance.The four groups placed Jerusalem at the top
of their ranking in terms of difficulty and importance. It is interesting
that for the West Bankers and Gazans, the choice of Palestinian state is
ranked fourth in terms of both importance and difficulty. Agreement over
the future of Jewish settlements is more salient to West Bankers and Gazans,
as well as to Israeli Jews. Israeli Jews are closer to their perception
of the issue of settlements to Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza,
thus placing settlements in the second place (for Jews), and third place
for West Bankers and Gazans.
A distinction is made in the questionnaire
between "cause" and "responsibility" pertaining to the exodus of the 1948
refugees. Among the three Palestinian groups in the sample, 59% of the
West Bank and Gaza , 60.8% of the Arab Israelis, blamed Jewish forces for
causing the Palestinian refugee problem through expulsion. Very few said
that the refugees left voluntarily (6% of the Arab Israelis and 4% of those
in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip), or that they were told to leave by
Arab leaders of neighboring states (5.9% for West Bank and Gaza, and 1%
for the Arab Israelis).
When it comes to responsibility for creating
the refugee problem, a total of 73.6% of the Arab Israelis blamed only
or mostly Israel, compared to 51.4% of West Bank and Gaza respondents.
Interestingly, a significant number of Palestinians in the West Bank and
Gaza (42.6%) put the responsibility jointly on Israel and the Arab countries.
A very small proportion put the responsibility solely on the Arab side
(3.7% of West Bankers and Gazans, and 0.8% for the Arab Israelis).Jewish
respondents differed from their Palestinian counterparts on these two questions.
With regard to the cause of expulsion, the largest single category (31%)
went to those Israeli Jews who said that Jewish forces expelled Palestinian
refugees, 29.9% said that the refugees left voluntarily, and 17.3% said
they left because Arab leaders told them to leave. Around one-quarter,
23.3%, did not know. Turning to responsibility for creating the refugee
problem, 11.8% of Israeli Jews blamed Israel only (4.8%) or mostly (7.0%),
and 35.5% blamed both Israel and the Arab side. In other words, close to
one-half (46.8%) of Israeli Jews implicated Israel in one way or another
with responsibility for creating the refugee problem. Of the Israeli Jewish
respondents, a total of 43.3% blamed only (21.1%) or mostly (22.2%) the
Arab side, and close to 10% did not know.
In excess of 80% of Palestinians in the West
Bank and Gaza defined a just solution to the refugee problem in terms of
applying the United Nations Resolution 194, while a very small number opted
for leaving a just solution to be decided solely by Israel (2.9%). 12%
of West Bank and Gazans said that a just solution involves the return of
a limited number of refugees, depending on negotiations between Israel
and the Palestinians. Among the Arab Israelis, the corresponding figure
is 22%.Is it feasible to apply United Nations Resolution 194 for solving
the refugee issue?
The percentage agreeing to this varied from
55.1% for West Bankers and Gazans (who agreed without qualifications),
to 49.2% for the Arab Israelis. Only 18.8% of West Bank and Gaza respondents,
and 29.6% of Israeli Palestinians said that the return of a limited number
of refugees is feasible under the present circumstances, the majority of
the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip respondents (63.6%) said
that the return of all refugees on the basis of UN Resolution 194 is feasible.
A very small number of the two groups said that only Israel should decide
on who returns from the refugees, between 6% and 8%. A tiny minority of
Israeli Jews endorsed Resolution 194 as either a just (4.5%) or feasible
(4.7%) solution for the refugee problem. The majority left it to Israel
solely to decide on who goes back as the basis for a just (56.8%) or feasible
(50.8%) solution to the refugee problem. Around one-fifth of Israeli Jews
endorsed the return of a limited number of refugees depending on the negotiations
between Israel and the Palestinians. Very few of Israeli Jews surveyed
said that there is no refugee problem (0.2%).
While around 80% of the two Palestinian groups
in the sample said that anyone wishing to return should be allowed to do
so, among Israeli Jews the corresponding figure is 11.5%. Close to 43%
of Israeli Jews said no refugee should be allowed to go back, and around
one-third (32.6%) approved of the return of a limited number - from "few
hundreds" to "few thousands" - in the context of negotiations between Israel
and the Palestinians. In the case of possible return, where should the
Palestinian refugees be settled? A majority of the Jewish sample (57.2%)
said that they should be settled in their present locations in the Middle
East and elsewhere. One-third mentioned the Palestinian state as a possible
place for absorbing the refugees, and only 5.3% approved of their return
to their homes in Israel. The majority of Palestinians in the study (between
53% and 58%) wanted the refugees to go back to their homes, followed by
settling them in the Palestinian state, or a combined place of settlement
in Israel and the Palestinian state.Around 70% of the Arab Israelis said
that Israel should compensate the refugees. Among Israeli Jews, the figure
was 18%, while 41% of Israeli Jews named international bodies such as the
UN as a possible source for compensation. Seventeen per cent of Israeli
Jews denied any compensation to Palestinian refugees. Twenty-nine per cent
of Israeli Jewish respondents named Arab governments as a source for compensating
Prefugees, and 11% chose the US. Palestinian respondents from Gaza and
the West Bank answered the question with a breakdown of an additional category
inserted in the questionnaire.
Thus, 25% of West Bankers named Israel as
the sole source for compensation, and 13.5% of Gazans said the same thing.However,
in the combined responses, for a total of 46% of the West Bankers, Israel
was a party to payment of compensation; they named Israel and international
bodies (32%), Israel and Arab governments (5.4%), Israel, international
bodies and Arab governments (8.7%), and an additional group named international
bodies and Arab governments (3.0%). A total of 58% of Gazans gave the following
answers to the same breakdown, respectively: 27.2%, 6.8%, 15.5%, and 8.4%.Fifty-four
per cent, 56%, and 70% of the three Palestinian samples in Gaza, West Bank
and Israel, respectively, endorsed without any qualifications international
law stipulating that displaced refugees should be allowed to return to
their homes. Among Israeli Jews unqualified support for this principle
extended to 18%. However, 52% of Israeli Jews endorsed this international
law with qualifications, compared to 27.8% of West Bank and Gaza respondents,
and 22% of the Arab Israelis. While close to 90% of the Palestinians sampled
agreed that the international law of displacement applies to the Palestinian
refugees, among Israeli Jews it was 40%, and 50% of Israeli Jews disagreed
with the applicability of the law to the Palestinian case.
Palestinians in the West Bank estimated that
17.3% of all the refugees would take advantage of the right of return,
13.1% said between 2-3 million would return, 23.4% between 1-2 million,
and about 30% estimated that less than 500,000 would return. Among Gaza
respondents, the figures are: 10.7% for 4 million and more, 18.5% for 2-3
million, 32% for 1-2 million, and close to 30% estimated the number of
returnees to be less than 500,000. Of the Israeli Jewish respondents and
Arab Israelis, 31% and 42.8%, respectively, could not say how many would
take advantage of the right of return. Fifty-eight per cent of the Jewish
respondents estimated that less than one million refugees would take advantage
of their right to return. However, 15.6% of the latter said that in excess
of 4 million refugees would opt to return.
Methodology
The methodology used on the Palestinian sample in West
Bank (including East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip:
The West Bank and the Gaza Strip sample was conducted
by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center. A random sample of 1200
people over the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face throughout the
West Bank and Gaza Strip on 21, 22 October 1999. The interviews were conducted
in randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also
selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted
in 58 sampling points chosen randomly according to population. In the West
Bank, 762 people were surveyed and 438 people were surveyed in the Gaza
Strip. The margin of error is +/-3 percent, with a confidence level of
95.
57.2% of the respondents were from the West Bank, 6.3%
from Jerusalem, 36.5% from the Gaza Strip. 41.9% said they live in villages,
16.0% in refugee camps, 42.1% in towns/cities. 47.2% were male and 52.8%
were female. The average of the respondents was 34 years. 66.3% were married,
26.7% single, 3.7% widow, 1.4% divorced, 1.9% No answer.
The methodology used on the Jewish sample
in Israel:
The Israeli Jewish sample was held within the context
of the Peace Index project of the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research
at Tel Aviv University, headed by Prof. Ephraim Ya'ar and Dr. Tamar Hermann,
and carried out by "Teleseker". The poll included 500 persons polled by
phone, constituting a representative sample of the adult Jewish population
in Israel (including residents of settlements and Kibbutzim). The margin
of error in a sample of this size is approximately +/- 4.5%
The methodology used on the Palestinian sample in Israel:
The sample of Palestinians in Israel consisted of 500
men and women ranging in the age from 18 and above, and drawn on a stratified,
random basis from 20 localities representing size of community and regional
distributionheaded by Prof. Elia Zreik, and the survey was conducted by
Dr. 'As'aad Ghanem. In line with other published estimates, around one-quarter
(23.2%) of the randomly selected respondents turned out to be internal
refugees, i.e., thosewho were displaced in 1948 and remained in what became
Israel, but were not allowed to go back to their villages. The interviews
were carried out face-to-face, and were conducted during November 1-10,
1999.
The sample of the palestinians in Israel has a marginal
error of +/- 4.5%. The questionnaire was pilot tested on 8 individuals
of various age groups, comprising men and women. Collection of information
from respondents was the responsibility of 12 interviewers, most of whom
are either graduates of or currently studying at Israeli universities.
Very few of the older respondents who appeared on the random list, particularly
women, refused to participatein the study. Interviewers were instructed
to seek replacementsfor them from a computerized list of voters supplied
by the Israeli Ministry of Interior.
Sample Distribution
57.2% of the respondents were from West Bank,
6.3% from Jerusalem, 36.5% from the Gaza Strip.
41.9% said they live in villages, 16.0% in
refugee camps, 42.1% in towns/cities.
47.2% were male, 52.5% were female.
66.3% were married, 26.7%, single, 3.7% widowed,
1.4% divorced, 1.9% no answer.
The average age of the respondents was 34
years.
Following are the full results:
Results
Q. 1 In your opinion, of the following issues discussed
in the framework of the Israeli - Palestinian peace negotiations, which
are the three most difficult for the two sides to find an agreeable solution
to? Please indicate the most difficult issue, the second most difficult
and the third?
Most Difficult
Arab Israelis (N= 500)
Arab Israelis (N= 500)
Rank
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Total
|
Overall Rank
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Total
|
Overall Rank
|
| Palestinian State |
14.2
|
20.4
|
17.2
|
51.8
|
3
|
7.2
|
16.7
|
14.5
|
38.4
|
4
|
| Jerusalem |
53.2
|
23.4
|
6.2
|
82.8
|
1
|
70.9
|
13.7
|
4.4
|
89.0
|
1
|
| Borders |
1.4
|
11.4
|
7.2
|
20.0
|
5
|
4.8
|
17.3
|
17.5
|
39.7
|
3
|
| Refugees |
11.0
|
15.8
|
29.8
|
56.6
|
2
|
7.2
|
15.4
|
14.3
|
36.8
|
5
|
| Water |
3.8
|
1.6
|
4.2
|
9.7
|
6
|
2.1
|
9.3
|
11.7
|
23.1
|
6
|
| Jewish Settlements |
5.0
|
13.6
|
18.2
|
36.8
|
4
|
3.8
|
19.8
|
21.8
|
45.5
|
2
|
| Don't know |
8.4
|
8.4
|
8.4
|
25.2
|
|
3.3
|
7.4
|
14.9
|
25.6
|
|
| No answer |
3.0
|
5.4
|
8.8
|
17.2
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
| Other answer |
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
0.8
|
0.3
|
0.8
|
1.6
|
7
|
| Total |
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
|
Most Difficult
Palestinians in West Bank* (N=762)
Palestinians in Gaza (N=348)
Rank
Rank
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Total
|
Overall Rank
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Total
|
Overall Rank
|
| Palestinian State |
16.3
|
10.4
|
9.4
|
36.1
|
4
|
10.3
|
19.5
|
9.4
|
39.2
|
4
|
| Jerusalem |
52.2
|
20.6
|
11.4
|
84.2
|
1
|
66.4
|
17.6
|
5.3
|
99.3
|
1
|
| Borders |
3.7
|
10.8
|
14.8
|
26.3
|
5
|
1.1
|
5.5
|
7.5
|
14.1
|
6
|
| Refugees |
9.3
|
26.5
|
23.9
|
59.7
|
2
|
7.1
|
29.0
|
21.5
|
57.6
|
2
|
| Water |
3.1
|
6.5
|
9.7
|
19.3
|
6
|
3.9
|
7.1
|
13.7
|
24.7
|
5
|
| Jewish Settlements |
11.3
|
20.5
|
24.8
|
56.6
|
3
|
7.3
|
15.8
|
30.6
|
53.7
|
3
|
| Don't know |
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
| No answer |
4.1
|
4.7
|
6.0
|
14.8
|
|
3.9
|
5.5
|
11.9
|
21.3
|
|
| Total |
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
|
*Including East Jerusalem
Q. 2 In your opinion, which of above issues are the
three most important for the two sides to find an agreeable solution to?
Most Important Issue
Arab Israelis (N=500)
Israeli Jews (N=500)
Rank
Rank
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Total
|
Overall Rank
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Total
|
Overall Rank
|
| Palestinian State |
13.8
|
20.4
|
19.4
|
53.6
|
2
|
13.8
|
14.0
|
12.1
|
38.4
|
4
|
| Jerusalem |
48.2
|
22.0
|
6.2
|
76.4
|
1
|
48.4
|
18.8
|
9.2
|
89.0
|
1
|
| Borders |
1.8
|
8.8
|
7.0
|
17.6
|
5
|
12.1
|
17.1
|
15.3
|
39.7
|
3
|
| Refugees |
13.6
|
14.6
|
24.4
|
52.6
|
3
|
5.2
|
13.3
|
10.3
|
36.8
|
5
|
| Water |
5.8
|
3.8
|
4.0
|
13.6
|
6
|
6.4
|
10.4
|
13.0
|
23.1
|
6
|
| Jewish Settlements |
5.6
|
16.2
|
19.0
|
40.8
|
4
|
4.6
|
13.2
|
22.3
|
45.5
|
2
|
| Don't know |
8.6
|
8.6
|
8.6
|
25.8
|
|
6.6
|
12.6
|
17.2
|
36.4
|
|
| No answer |
2.6
|
5.6
|
11.4
|
19.6
|
7
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
| Other Answer |
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
2.8
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
3.3
|
7
|
| Total |
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
|
100.0%
|
|
|
|
|
Most Important
Palestinians in West Bank* (N=762)
Palestinians in Gaza (N=438)
Issue
Rank
Rank
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Total
|
Overall Rank
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
Total
|
Overall Rank
|
| Palestinian State |
18.0
|
10.0
|
12.2
|
40.2
|
4
|
11.9
|
13.7
|
11.6
|
37.2
|
4
|
| Jerusalem |
48.7
|
21.0
|
10.6
|
80.3
|
1
|
55.0
|
18.0
|
5.3
|
78.3
|
1
|
| Borders |
6.0
|
13.5
|
14.3
|
33.8
|
5
|
2.5
|
8.2
|
9.1
|
19.8
|
6
|
| Refugees |
9.2
|
24.7
|
24.8
|
58.7
|
2
|
9.4
|
29.2
|
18.7
|
57.3
|
2
|
| Water |
4.5
|
7.6
|
9.6
|
21.7
|
6
|
7.3
|
8.9
|
13.5
|
29.7
|
5
|
| Jewish Settlements |
11.0
|
19.7
|
24.3
|
55.0
|
3
|
9.4
|
14.2
|
29.7
|
53.3
|
3
|
| Don't know |
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
| No answer |
2.6
|
3.5
|
4.2
|
10.3
|
|
4.5
|
7.8
|
12.1
|
24.4
|
|
| Total |
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
|
|
*Including East Jerusalem
Q. 3 What caused the 1948 Palestinian refugee problem
in the first instance?
| Cause of the Refugee Problem |
Arab Israelis(N=500)
|
Israeli Jews (N=500)
|
Palestinians in West Bank*(N=762)
|
Palestinians in Gaza (N=438)
|
| Mainly, the refugees left voluntarily |
6.0
|
29.9
|
4.5
|
3.2
|
| Mainly, the refugees were told to leave by Arab leaders |
1.0
|
17.3
|
6.2
|
5.5
|
| Mainly, Jewish forces expelled the refugees |
60.8
|
31.0
|
56.4
|
63.5
|
| Combination of the above (indicate which ones) |
19.4
|
4.7
|
23.2
|
17.6
|
| Other Answer |
-
|
-
|
4.3
|
5.8
|
| Don't know |
10.8
|
23.3
|
4.1
|
2.1
|
| No answer |
2.0
|
-
|
1.3
|
2.3
|
| Total |
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
*Including East Jerusalem.
Q. 4 Which of the following solutions to the refugee
issue is most just in your opinion?
a. Should be based on UN Resolution 194 which calls for
the right of return to all the Palestinian refugees and
compensation to those who do not return.
b. The returning of a limited number of Palestinian refugees
to Israel and suitable compensation to those who
will not return based on an
agreement between Israel and the Palstinians.
c. Only those who are approved by Israel should be allowed
to return and compensation to those who do not
return.
|
Most Just Solution
|
Arab Israelis(N=500)
|
Israeli Jews (N=500)
|
Palestinians in West Bank*(N=762)
|
Palestinians in Gaza (N=438)
|
| a. UN Resolution 194 |
61.4
|
4.5
|
81.1
|
82.6
|
| b. Return of a limited number |
22.0
|
14.9
|
10.4
|
12.2
|
| c. Only those approved by Israel |
5.0
|
56.8
|
3.5
|
1.8
|
| There is no refugee problem |
1.6
|
0.2
|
0.5
|
0.0
|
| Don't know |
9.2
|
5.0
|
-
|
-
|
| No answer |
0.8
|
18.7
|
4.5
|
3.4
|
| Total |
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
*Including East Jerusalem.
Q. 5 Under the present circumstances, which of the
above solutions looks most feasible to you?
|
Most feasible Solution
|
Arab Israelis(N=500)
|
Israeli Jews (N=500)
|
Palestinians in West Bank*(N=762)
|
Palestinians in Gaza (N=438)
|
| UN Resolution 194 |
49.2
|
4.7
|
66.8
|
58.0
|
| Return of a limited number |
29.6
|
20.8
|
15.7
|
24.2
|
| Only those approved by Israel |
7.8
|
50.8
|
6.6
|
6.2
|
| There is no refugee problem |
1.6
|
0.2
|
0.5
|
0.2
|
| Don't know |
11.0
|
7.2
|
-
|
-
|
| No answer |
0.8
|
-
|
10.4
|
11.4
|
| Other Answer |
-
|
16.3 **
|
-
|
-
|
| Total |
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
*Including East Jerusalem
**In the Israeli Jewish sample, "Other Answer" included
the following: 10.0% said none of the given options are possible; 0.7%
said all are possible, and 5.0% offered other solutions.
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1999] [Back
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