in cooperation with Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research, Tel Aviv University
While to the Israelis, the Oslo process is likely to bring
about a Palestinian state, the Israeli understanding of this state is different
than that of the Palestinians. 65.8% of the Israelis are against the evacuation
of all Jewish settlements, and 72.8% are against having East Jerusalem
as the capital of Palestine. For the Palestinians, the evacuation of all
Jewish settlements is important to the Palestinian State. Only 27.9% of
the Palestinians accept the evacuation of only some Jewish settlements,
the majority, (67.3%), insist that all Jewish settlements be dismantled.
Also, 67.9% of the Palestinians reject having unified Jerusalem as the
capital of Israel.
A random sample of 1199 people over the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 16, 17 December 1999. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 58 sampling points chosen randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 761 people were surveyed from the following areas: Jenin: Jenin, Tubas, Jenin refugee camp, silat al-Harthieh, ‘Uraba. Nablus: Nablus, Salfit, Kufr al-Deik, Huwara, Burin, Beit-Dajan, Deir Sharaf, Zuwwata, Askar refugee camp. Tulkarem: Tulkarem ,'Anabta, 'Illar, Tulkarem refugee camp. Qalqilia: Qalqilia and Jayyous. Hebron: Hebron, Sa'eer, Beit Ula, Bani N'eim, Dura Assamou', Tarqoumia, al-Fawwar refugee camp. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Nahlin, al-Duhha, Husan, Al-'Azzeh refugee camp. Jericho: Jericho and 'Ein al-Sultan refugee camp Ramallah & Jerusalem: Ramallah, al-Bireh, alJalzon refugee camp, Sinjil, Ni'lin, Slilwad, Shuqba, a-Ram, a-Dahya, Qalandia refugee camp, Shu'fat, Beit Hanina, Old City of Jerusalem, al-Izarieh, Abu Deis, Kufr 'Aqab, Beir Nabla, 'Anata..
In the Gaza Strip, 438 people were surveyed
from: Gaza North: Jabalia refugee camp, Jabalia, Beit Lahia and
Beit Hanoun. Gaza: Sheikh Radwan, a-Darji, a-Tufah, Sabra, al-Meghraqa,
a-Zeitoon, a-Nasser, a-Shujaeih, a-Rimal north and south and Shati refugee
camp. Deir al- Balah: Nusseirat refugee camp, Deir al-Balah refugee
camp, Deir al- Balah. Khan Younis: Khan Younis refugee camp, Khan
Younis, al-Qararah and Bani Suheila, Khuza'aah. Rafah: Rafah, Rafah
refugee camp, Tal al-Sultan refugee camp, Shawkat al-Soufi.
Sample Distribution (Palestinian
Survey)
Students 10.0% laborers 12.9% Farmers/fishermen 1.9%Craftsmen 1.8% Businessmen/private business 7.5%Employees e.g. secretaries/municipal employees/teachers/nurses 15.7%Professionals - e.g. doctors/lawyers/ pharmacists/engineers 1.9%Housewives, unemployed and retired 47.5%
No answer 1.3%
6.1% Illiterate, 11.4% Elementary, 20.9% Preparatory, 33.8% Secondary
20.4% Some college, 6.8% College and above, 0.6% no answer
Two random samples of Israelis (Jews and Arabs) over the age of 18 were interviewed by telephone on 28 December 1999. The Jewish sample included 502 respondents; a representative sample of the adult Jewish population (including residents of the settlements in the territories and kibbutzim). The Arab sample included 500 respondents, a representative sample of the Muslim, Christian and Druz populations. Notably, the Arab population in this age cohort accounts for only about 12 percent of the adult Israeli population; we had to use a diproportionately large sample in order correctly to analyze this population group by its subgroups. Obviously, when data for the total population were computed, the Arab population was weighted in accordance with its correct proportion.
The margin of error in a sampling of this size is 4.5%.
Q.1 How optimistic or pessimistic are you about reaching
a peaceful Arab-Israel settlement? Would you say you are:
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| Very Optimistic |
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| Optimistic |
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| Pessimistic |
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| Very Pessimistic |
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| Don't know |
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Q.2 What do you think about the Olso formula, would you
say strongly support it, fairly support it, fairly oppose it, strongly
oppose it or in the middle?
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| Strongly support |
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| Fairly Support |
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| In the middle |
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| Fairly oppose |
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| Strongly oppose |
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| Don't know |
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Q.3 Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo agreement
between Israel and the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the
Palestinans in the coming years?
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| Greatly believe |
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| Somewhat believe |
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| In the middle |
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| Somewhat believe |
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| Certainly don't believe |
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| Don't know |
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Q.4 In your opinion, is there a chance that the Oslo Process
will eventually result in the establishment of a genuine sovereign Palestinian
state?
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| Surely yes |
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| Probably yes |
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| Probably no |
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| Surely no |
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| Don't know |
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Q.5 (For the Palestinians) From the Israeli point of view, the concept of a sovereign Palestinian state implies the fulfillment of the following: removing of only certain Jewish settlements and maintaining the rest under Israel's sovereignty; keeping Jerusalem united and as the capital of Israel only. Which of these conditions is aceptable or not acceptable in your opinion?
Removing of only certain Jewish settlements and maintaining the rest under Israel's sovereignty
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| Completely acceptable |
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| Acceptable |
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| Unacceptable |
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| Completely unacceptable |
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| Don't know |
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Keeping parts of the territories under the sovereignty of Israel on the basis of security considerations
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| Completely acceptable |
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| Acceptable |
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| Unacceptable |
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| Completely unacceptable |
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| Don't know |
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keeping Jerusalem united as the capital of Israel only
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| Completely acceptable |
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| Acceptable |
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| Unacceptable |
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| Completely unacceptable |
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| Don't know |
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Q.5 (For the Israelis). From the Palestinian point of view, the concept of a sovereign Palestinian state implies the fulfilment of the following; Israeli withdrawal to the pre 67 war borders (the Green Line); East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine; Evacuation of all Jewish settlemtns in the territories, Which of these conditions is acceptable or not acceptable in your opinion?
Israeli withdrawal to the pre 67 war borders (the Green Line)
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| Completely acceptable |
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| Acceptable |
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| Unacceptable |
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| Completely unacceptable |
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| Don't know |
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East Jerusalem as the capital of Palestine
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| Completely acceptable |
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| Acceptable |
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| Unacceptable |
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| Completely unacceptable |
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| Don't know |
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Evacuation of all Jewish settlemtns in the territories
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| Completely acceptable |
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| Acceptable |
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| Unacceptable |
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| Completely unacceptable |
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| Don't know |
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Q.6 How genuine do you think the present Palestinian
Authority is about reaching peace with Israel. Would you say that it is;
very genuine, genuine, not genuine, not genuine at all?
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| Very genuine |
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| Genuine |
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| Not genuine |
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| Not genuine at all |
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| Don't know |
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Q.7 If the issue of Jerusalem is the last obstacle to
the signing of the peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians,
will you then agree that the city of Jerusalem will remain the unified
capital of Israel?
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| Agree |
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| Disagree |
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| Don't know |
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Q.8 What, in your opinion, is the best and final solution
to the Jerusalem problem?
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| Unified Jerusalem (East and West) as capital of Israel |
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| West Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, The Old City is under a joint sovereignty, and East Jerusalem is under Palestinian sovereignty. |
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| East Jerusalem as the captial of the Palestinian State and West Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Israel. |
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| Jerusalem as an open city and capital of the two states. |
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| International Jerusalem |
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| Unified Jerusalem (East and West) as the capital of Palestine |
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| Capital of Muslims |
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| Other |
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| Don't know |
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Q.9 Where should the Palestinian refugee be permanetly
setled:
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| Mainly in their original homes inside (1948 Palestine) (Israel) |
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| Mainly in places within the Palestinian state. |
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| Mainly in their present place of residence in the Middle East or elsewhere. |
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| Don't know |
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Q.10 There are different opinions on the question who
is responsible for the creation of the refugee problem 1948 - Israel or
the Arabs, In your opinion who is the responsible side?
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| Only Israel |
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| Mostly Israel |
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| Israel and the Arab side to the same extent |
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| Mostly the Arab side |
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| Only the Arab side |
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| Don't know |
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Q. 11 Some argue that the two states for the two people
formula is the preferable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,
while others argue that historic Palestine cannot be divided into two states
and therefore a bi-national state in which the Israelis and the Palestinians
will have equal representation in the various institutional of government
regardless of the relative size of the two populations is the most preferable
one. Which of the two solutions do you prefer?
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| Prefer the two states solution |
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| Prefer the bi-national solution |
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| Prefer another solution |
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| There is no solution to the conflict |
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| Don't know |
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Q.12 In your opinion, what is the best final solution
for Jerusalem issue?
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| A confederation between Israel and the Palestinian state |
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| A Jewish state in the entire territory west of the Jordan river |
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| A Palestinian state in the entire territory west of the Jordan river |
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| An Islamic state in the entire territory, west of the Jordan river |
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| An independent Palestinian state with entire sovereignty |
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| A confederation with Jordan |
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| The Jews leave Palestine |
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| Other |
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| There is no solution to the conflict |
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| Don't know |
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Q.13 Under the condition of permanent peace following
an Israeli-Palestinian agreement, do you prefer an open border between
the two states so that Israelis and Palestinians can move freely between
the two states or do you prefer a closed border without such free movement?
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| Prefers an open border to both Israelis and Palestinians |
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| Prefers a close border to both Israelis and Palestinians |
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| Prefer an open border for the Israelis and a close border to the Palestinians |
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| Prefers an open border to the Palestinians and a close border to the Israelis |
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| Don't know |
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Q.14 How would you define your economic situation today?
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| Very bad |
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| Fairly bad |
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| Fairly good |
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| Very good |
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| Don't know |
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Q.15 And now what about the situation of Palestinian (Israelis)
economy, would you say that it is:
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| Very bad |
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| Fairly bad |
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| Fairly good |
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| Very good |
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| Don't know |
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Q.16 (For the Palestinians) And what about the
future of your economic situation with the achievement of a permanent peace,
will it
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| Get better |
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| Stay the same |
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| Get worse |
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| Don't know |
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Q.16 (For the Israelis) And what about the future
of your economic situation with the achievement of a permanent peace, will
it
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| Get better |
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| Stay the same |
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| Get worse |
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| Don't know |
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Q.17 (For the Palestinians) The Israeli economy
with the achievement of a permanent peace, will it be:
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| Get better |
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| Stay the same |
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| Get worse |
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| Don't know |
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Q.17 (For the Israelis) The Palestinian economy
with the achievement of a permanent peace, will it be:
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| Very bad |
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| Fairly bad |
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| Fairly good |
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| Very good |
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| Don't know |
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Q.18 If the Israelis and the Palestinians sign a permanent
peace agreement based on the "Two States for the Two People" formula. From
the point of view of the Palestinians, will such an agreement mean the
end to their historical conflict with Israel/with the Palestinians?
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| Surely yes |
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| Probably yes |
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| Probably no |
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| Surely no |
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| Don't know |
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