in cooperation with Al-Hayat Newspaper - London
Introduction
JMCC conducted an opinion poll on the attitude of Palestinians
towards the Taba Agreement (Oslo 2). The poll was conducted on the 6th
and 7th of October 1995 in the West Bank including Jerusalem and in the
Gaza Strip.
The poll showes over whelming support for the peace process
and the Taba Agreement. Support for the opposition is declining, and the
majority of the opponents of the peace process feel that the opposition,
in general, is either impracticl or its approach is vague.
-
Only 16.4% opposed the Taba Agreement compared to 23.7% who
strongly support it, and 41.9% who cautiously support it.
-
19.1% of the respondents believe that the Taba Agreement
solidifies the occupation, while 14.7% believe that the agreement is a
step toward the full realization of the Palestinian aspirations (independent
Palestinian State with Jerusalem as its capital). The majority, 54.6% of
the respondents believe that Taba is a step toward the realization of some
of the aspiration of the Palestinian people.
-
25.5% of the respondents say that they are very optimistic
about the future, 48.4% say that they are somehow optimistic. Only 22.2%
say they are pessimistic or very pessimistic.
-
62.3% say they will feel more secure once the PA assumes
responsibility in the West Bank: 66.8% were from the West Bank and 50.9%
from the Gaza Strip. (In 21 June 1995, only 35.8% of West Bankers said
they feel more secure compared to 69.3% from the Gaza Strip).
-
Only 17.8% say that they oppose the peace process while 72.7%
say they support it. Of those who say they oppose the peace process, 49.8%
criticized the opposition as being impractical and vague, compared to 33.9%
who say the opposition is practical.
-
Support to Hamas declined from 18% in 21 June 1995 to 10.7%.
Support for Fateh fell marginally from 46.6% (21 June 1995) to 4.6%.
-
A surprising increase in the percentage of those who say
that Rabin is sincere about implementing the peace agreements with the
Palestinians, whereas those who say Rabin is sincere was only 9.9% in 21
June 1995, the percentage increased to 27.2%.
-
Of all the respondents 65.2% said that Israel has no right
to exist, while 26.4% say it does. Of those who trust Hamas most, 9.8%
say that Israel has the right to exist, compared to 34.9% Fateh Supporters.
Methodology
A random sample of 1,273 Palestinians, over the age of
18 years, were interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza
Strip on 6-7 October 1995. The interviews were conducted on randomly selected
homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according
to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 53 sampling points chosen
randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 972 people were surveyed from the following
areas: Jerusalem, Al-Ram, Dahiet Al-Bareed, Ramallah, Al-Bireh, Beit Rima,
N'ileen, Ein Yabroud, Jericho, Housan, Bethlehem, Deiheishe Refugee camp,
Za'atara, Al-Thahrieh, Hebron, Al-Fawar Refugee Camp, Doura, S'eir, Halhoul,
Jenin Refugee Camp, Toubas, Jenin, Kufur Ra'ei, Seilat Al-Thaher, Al-Yamoun,
Al-Zababdeh, Nablus, Balta Refugee Camp, Aqraba, Beita, Kufur Kaddoum,
Tulkarem, Jinsafout, Salfeet, Qalqilia.
In the Gaza Strip, 346 people were surveyed from: Gaza,
Rafah, Jabaliah, Deir Albalah, Beit Lahia, Khan Younis Refugee Camp, Rafah
Refugee Camp, Deir Albalah Refugee Camp, Jabalia Refugee Camp.
The major of error is plus or minus 3% with a confidence
level of 95%.
Sample Distribution
-
72.9% of the respondents were from the West Bank (including
East Jerusalem)
-
27.1% from the Gaza Strip
-
49.6% were male
-
50.4% were female
-
62.8% were married
-
30.7% were single
-
6.5% were widowed - divorced
-
4.6% Other
-
The average of age of the respondents was 34 years.
Occupation respondents
Students 8.4%
Waged labourers 16.5%
Housewives 25.2%
Employees eg. secretaries/teachers/nurses/municipal employees
16.5%
Businessmen/private business 4.5%
Farmers/fishermen 1.6%
Professionals - eg. doctors/lawyers/pharmacists/engineers
13.3%
Unemployed 7.8%
Retired 1.6%
Other 4.6%
Results
Q.1 After signing the Interim Phase Agreement in Washington
last week, how optimistic are you about the future in general? Would you
say you are very optimistic, somehow optimistic, pessimistic, or very pessimistic?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very optimistic |
25.5%
|
25.8%
|
24.9%
|
| Somehow optimistic |
48.4%
|
48.2%
|
49.4%
|
| Pessimistic |
14.7%
|
15.5%
|
12.7%
|
| Very Pessimistic |
7.5%
|
6.5%
|
10.1%
|
| No opinion |
3.9%
|
4.0%
|
2.9%
|
Q.2 Upon the Palestinian Authority's assumption of responsibility
in the West Bank, would you say that your feeling of security, in general,
would be better, worse, or would you say that your feeling of security
will not change?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip |
| Better |
62.3%
|
66.8%
|
50.9%
|
| Worse |
11.2%
|
11.0%
|
11.8%
|
| Will not change |
21.2%
|
17.2%
|
32.1%
|
| Other |
1.3%
|
1.3%
|
1.2%
|
| No opinion |
4.0%
|
3.7%
|
4.0%
|
Q.3 To what extent would you say that the Taba Agreement
is a step toward the realization of the aspiration of the Palestinian people
in establishing their independent state with Jerusalem as its capital?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| A step towards the full realization of Palestinian aspirations |
14.7%
|
15.1%
|
13.6%
|
| A step towards the realization of some of the Palestinian
aspirations |
54.6%
|
53.9%
|
56.9%
|
| This agreement strengthens the occupation |
19.1%
|
19.1%
|
19.1%
|
| No opinion |
11.6%
|
11.9%
|
10.4%
|
Q. 4 To what extent would you say you support or oppose
the agreement reached between the PA and Israel over the Interim Phase?
Would you say you strongly support, you cautiously support it, or would
you say you totally oppose it?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
23.7%
|
24.7%
|
21.4%
|
| Cautiously support |
41.9%
|
42.7%
|
40.2%
|
| Totally oppose |
16.4%
|
16.1%
|
17.1%
|
| I don't know the provisions of the agreement |
12.9%
|
11.7%
|
16.2%
|
| No opinion |
5.1%
|
4.8%
|
5.1%
|
Q.5 How do you evaluate the performance of the PNA after
one year of its work? Would you say its performance is good, fair, or poor?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Good |
37.1%
|
35.0%
|
43.1%
|
| Fair |
38.0%
|
39.6%
|
34.1%
|
| Poor |
15.0%
|
14.3%
|
16.5%
|
| Other |
1.5%
|
1.6%
|
1.2%
|
| No opinion |
8.4%
|
9.5%
|
5.1%
|
Q.6 Do you think that president Arafat is carrying out
his work as the head of the PNA in a good, average, or bad way?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Good |
51.4%
|
49.9%
|
55.8%
|
| Average |
25.9%
|
26.8%
|
23.7%
|
| Bad |
11.8%
|
13.2%
|
8.4%
|
| No opinion |
10.9%
|
10.1%
|
12.1%
|
Q. 7 After the passage of a year since the return of president
Arafat and his assumption of the leadership of the PNA, has your support
increased, decreased, not changed, or did you never support him?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| My support increased |
32.0%
|
31.1%
|
34.7%
|
| My support declined |
10.4%
|
12.5%
|
4.9%
|
| My support did not change |
33.2%
|
34.3%
|
30.3%
|
| I never supported him |
16.8%
|
16.0%
|
18.8%
|
| No opinion |
7.6%
|
6.1%
|
11.3%
|
Q.8 Within the present political circumstances, do you
believe that the Palestinian delegation would have been able to reach a
better agreement than the one reached last week?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Yes |
32.2%
|
36.6%
|
20.8%
|
| No |
43.0%
|
39.3%
|
53.2%
|
| I do not know |
13.7%
|
14.1%
|
12.7%
|
| I am not interested in any agreement |
4.5%
|
3.8%
|
6.6%
|
| No opinion |
6.6%
|
6.2%
|
6.7%
|
Q.9 How do you evaluate the performance of the Palestinian
delegation during the Taba negotiations?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Good |
35.7%
|
35.8%
|
35.5%
|
| Fair |
34.6%
|
36.1%
|
30.9%
|
| Poor |
13.3%
|
12.6%
|
15.0%
|
| No opinion |
16.4%
|
15.5%
|
18.6%
|
Q.10 To what extent would you say you know about the agreement?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| I know about the agreement |
11.0%
|
12.3%
|
7.5%
|
| I know something about the agreement |
54.9%
|
53.3%
|
59.2%
|
| I do not know the agreement |
26.2%
|
28.3%
|
20.8%
|
| No opinion |
7.9%
|
6.1%
|
12.5%
|
Q.11 Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the removal
of Israeli settlements?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Optimistic |
43.0%
|
40.0%
|
51.4%
|
| Pessimistic |
45.6%
|
49.2%
|
36.4%
|
| I do not know |
7.5%
|
7.7%
|
6.9%
|
| No opinion |
3.9%
|
3.1%
|
5.3%
|
Q.12 In general, would you say you support or oppose the
peace process?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Support the peace process |
72.7%
|
73.7%
|
70.8%
|
| Oppose the peace process |
17.8%
|
17.2%
|
19.7%
|
| No opinion |
9.5%
|
9.1%
|
9.5%
|
Q.13 If you are opponent to the peace process, would you
say the opposition is practical in its program, not practical in its program,
or would you say that the opponent follows an unclear path? (This question
was asked only to those who say they oppose the peace proces in Q.12).
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Practical |
33.9%
|
24.5%
|
55.9%
|
| Not practical |
15.4%
|
18.2%
|
8.8%
|
| Path unclear |
34.4%
|
42.1%
|
16.2%
|
| No opinion |
16.3%
|
15.1%
|
19.1%
|
Q.14 Is Rabin sincere about implementing the agreements
he signed with the Palestinians?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Yes |
27.2%
|
25.9%
|
30.9%
|
| No |
54.8%
|
56.0%
|
51.7%
|
| No opinion |
18.0%
|
18.1%
|
17.4%
|
Q.15 If the labour falls and Likud takes over the Israeli
government in the coming elections, do you think the general Palestinian
political situation will:
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Improve |
7.6%
|
7.6%
|
7.8%
|
| Worsen |
42.2%
|
44.1%
|
37.0%
|
| Remain the same |
36.1%
|
34.6%
|
4.2%
|
| No opinion |
14.1%
|
13.7%
|
15.0%
|
Q.16 Which is the most political or religious faction
you trust most?
First Choice
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Fateh |
41.3%
|
41.7%
|
40.5%
|
| Hamas |
10.7%
|
8.8%
|
15.6%
|
| PFLP |
3.6%
|
3.9%
|
2.9%
|
| DFLP |
0.5%
|
0.6%
|
0.3%
|
| Islamic Jihad |
2.4%
|
1.7%
|
4.0%
|
| PPP |
1.0%
|
1.0%
|
1.2%
|
| FIDA |
0.5%
|
0.5%
|
0.6%
|
| Palestinian Struggle Front |
0.1%
|
--
|
--
|
| Islamic religion |
0.9%
|
1.3%
|
--
|
| Democracy building movements |
0.1%
|
--
|
0.3%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
20.9%
|
22.9%
|
15.9%
|
| PLO |
0.2%
|
0.2%
|
0.3%
|
| No answer |
17.5%
|
17.2%
|
17.8%
|
Q.17 Which Palestinian figure do you trust most?
First Choice
|
Total
|
| Yasser Arafat |
36.8%
|
| Nayef Hawatmeh |
0.3%
|
| Haider Abdul Shafi |
4.6%
|
| Abu Ala' - Ahmed Qrieh |
0.9%
|
| Jibriil Al-Rajoub |
0.4%
|
| Yasser Abed Rabbo |
0.9%
|
| Suleiman Najjab |
0.2%
|
| Bassam Jarrar |
--
|
| Mahmoud Zahhar |
0.2%
|
| Ahmed Yassin |
5.5%
|
| Hanan Ashrawi |
2.4%
|
| Fathi Shakaki |
0.5%
|
| Sa'eb Erikat |
0.5%
|
| Nabil Sha'ath |
0.9%
|
| Al-Rantisi |
0.3%
|
| Bashir Bargouthi |
0.1%
|
| Yihia A'yash |
0.2%
|
| Farouq Qaddoumi |
1.9%
|
| Amin Maraka |
0.1%
|
| Abu Mazen - Mahmoud Abbass |
0.5%
|
| Faisal Husseini |
2.1%
|
| George Habash |
3.4%
|
| Ahmed Tibi |
0.3%
|
| Abbas Zaki |
0.5%
|
| I do not trust anyone |
16.1%
|
| Others |
2.7%
|
| No opinion |
17.7%
|
Q.18 Do you think Israel has the right to exist?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Yes |
26.4%
|
26.3%
|
26.9%
|
| No |
65.2%
|
66.1%
|
63.0%
|
| No opinion |
8.3%
|
7.6%
|
10.1%
|
