Introduction
A comparison of the reuslts between an unpublished JMCC
poll on 7 March, 1997 and the current JMCC poll, shows a remarkable shift
in the mood of Palestinian public opinion towards various aspects of the
ailing peace process.
-
In general, the level of trust in the peace process has decreased
ever since the intensification of the Israeli settlement policies, particularly
on Mt. Abu Ghniem. Compared to last month's unpublished JMCC poll, strong
and some opposition to the peace process increased from 18.8% to 23.1%.
Moreover, whereas in pervious polls the levels of support (strong or somewhat)
for the peace process proved to have remained stable, in the last month
support levels declined from 78% to 73%.
-
Between 7 March and 3 April there has been a clear drop in
support for various Palestinian factions, including Hamas. Support fro
Fateh, for example declined from 40.6% in March to 38.5% in April. Support
for Hamas dwindled from 11.8% to 16.6%. Furhtermore, those who said they
do not trust any political or religious faction increased from 21.3% to
25.9%.
-
Over the last three weeks, trust in Palestinian President
Arafat decreased from 47.4% to 43.4%, and the number of Palestinians who
said they do not trust any Palestinian leader also increased from 15% to
18%.
-
Although the majority of Palestinians oppose military and
suicide bombing operations against Israeli targets, a large majority believe
that these operations are an adequate response to the current political
developments: 39.8% of the respondents said that they support military
operations against Israeli targets compared to 47.7% who oppose them. The
difference between support and opposition to military operations in the
West Bank is very low (41.6% whi support compared to 42.7% who oppose),
whereas in the Gaza Strip, the difference between those who support military
operations and those who oppose them is still about 18% (37.0% in Gaza
support military operations compared to 55.7% who oppose them). Similar
differences are also found between the West Bank and Gaza Strip in regard
to suicide bombs, although the level of opposition to suicide operations
is higher in both the West Bank and Gaza.
-
An increase in Palestinian frustration with the current Israeli
measures can be inferred from the level of support to popular protests
against Israeli; 62.7% of Palestinian support the intensification of demonstrations
and popular protests. Moreover 31.3% of Palestinians believe that the PA
(Palestinian Authority) should encourage these protests, and 37.5% say
the the PA should not interfere. Only 23.1% of the respondents say that
the PA should prevent these popular protests.
-
The majority of the Palestinians reject Israeli PM. Netanyahu's
proposal to stop the implementation of the interim agreement and to begin
with the final status negotiations: 67.6% of Palestinians believe that
the Palestinian leadership should not accept the proposal.
-
39.8% of Palestinians believe that the economy is the single
most important issue today, while 70.1% of Palestinians believe that the
peace process has has a negative or very negative effect on their economy.
Methodology
A random sample of 1,200 Palestinians, over the age of
18 years, were interviewed throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 3
and 4 April 1997. The interviews were conducted on randomly selected homes,
and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according
to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen
randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 740 people were surveyed from the following
areas: Jerusalem: Old city, a-Ram & Dhahya, Shu'fat, Shu'fat
RC (Refugee Camp), Silwan, Jabal al-Mukaber, Wadi al-Joz, Sheikh Jarrah,
Beit Hanina. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Beit Jala, Beit Shahour, Batir,
Sawahra, Nahaleen. Hebron: Hebron, Fawwar RC, Rihiya, Bani Na'im,
Halhoul, Idthna, Sa'eer. Jenin: Jenin, Jenin RC, Toubas, al-Jdayda,
Sanur, Rumana, Anin. Tulkarem & Qalqilia: Qalqilia, Tulkarem,
Rameen, Anbata, Kufr Jammal, Jayyous, Sida, Illar. Nablus: Nablu,
'Ain Beit Elam RC, Salim, Rujib. Ramallah: Ramallah, Al-Bireh, Silwad,
Beit 'Anan, Amari RC, Jericho: Jericho.
In the Gaza Strip, 460 people were surveyed from: Rafah
RC, Beit Hanoun, Khan Younis RC, Khan Younis, Jabalia RC, Magahzi RC, Gaza/Rimal,
Gaza/Sabra, Deir al-Balah, 'Abssan, Bani Suheila, Jabalia, Bureij RC, Gaza/al-Tufah,
Gaza/Shuja'ia, Gaza/Sheikh Radwan, Nusseirat RC, Shati RC.
The major of error is plus or minus 3% with a confidence
level of 95%.
Sample Distribution
-
51.4% of the respondents were from the West Bank
-
38.3% from the Gaza Strip
-
10.3% from Jerusalem
-
29.1% said they live in villages
-
24.5% in refugee camps
-
46.4% in towns/cities
-
46.8% were male
-
53.2% were female
-
64.4% were married
-
28.8% were single
-
5.3% were widowed
-
0.9% were divorced
-
0.6% No answer
-
The average of age of the respondents was 34 years.
Occupation respondents
Students 11.8%
Waged labourers 10.8%
Housewives 38.6%
Employees eg. secretaries/teachers/nurses/municipal employees
17.5%
Businessmen/private business 7.7%
Farmers/fishermen 1.6%
Craftsmen 1.6%
Professionals - eg. doctors/lawyers/pharmacists/engineers
2.2%
Unemployed 6.6%
Retired 1.3%
No answer 0.5%
Results
Q.1 In general, do you support or oppose the current peace
process between the Palestinians and Israel? Do you strongly support, somewhat
support, strongly oppose, or somewhat oppose?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
29.1%
|
24.9%
|
35.9%
|
| Somewhat support |
43.8%
|
43.1%
|
45.0%
|
| Strongly oppose |
11.2%
|
13.9%
|
6.7%
|
| Somewhat oppose |
11.9%
|
13.0%
|
10.2%
|
| No answer |
4.0%
|
5.1%
|
2.2%
|
Q.2 How has the Arab-Israeli peace process affected our
economy. Has it had a very positive, positive, negative, or very negative
effect on our economy, or has it had no effect at all?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip |
| Very positive |
2.1%
|
2.0%
|
2.2%
|
| Positive |
17.8%
|
18.4%
|
17.0%
|
| Negative |
42.7%
|
42.0%
|
43.7%
|
| Very negative |
27.4%
|
24.6%
|
32.0%
|
| Had no effect at all |
6.6%
|
8.6%
|
3.3%
|
| No answer |
3.4%
|
4.3%
|
2.0%
|
Q.3 In your opinion, which of the following is the single
most important issue facing Palestinian society today? To help you remember,
here is a card showing the possible issues (Accept one response only)
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Competing negotiations with Israel |
23.1%
|
24.3%
|
21.1%
|
| Improving our economic situation |
39.8%
|
37.2%
|
43.9%
|
| Achieving democracy and freedom of expression |
11.8%
|
12.7%
|
10.4%
|
| Maintaining order and security |
10.9%
|
12.0%
|
9.1%
|
| Decline of religious observance |
10.8%
|
10.0%
|
12.2%
|
| No answer |
3.6%
|
3.8%
|
3.3%
|
Q. 4 What is your opinion in regard to the Cairo Agreement,
would you say you support it, or oppose it?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Fateh |
38.5%
|
35.8%
|
42.8%
|
| Hamas |
10.6%
|
9.9%
|
11.7%
|
| PFLP |
1.4%
|
1.8%
|
0.9%
|
| DFLP |
0.7%
|
09%
|
0.2%
|
| Islamic Jihad |
1.4%
|
1.4%
|
1.5%
|
| PPP |
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
0.2%
|
| FIDA |
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
0.2%
|
| Pro peace secularists |
0.6%
|
0.7%
|
0.4%
|
| Othe Islamic Organization |
5.0%
|
7.2%
|
1.5%
|
| Others |
1.3%
|
1.2%
|
1.3%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
25.9%
|
25.0%
|
27.4%
|
| No answer |
13.9%
|
15.1%
|
11.7%
|
Q.5 Which Palestinian political or religious personality
do you trust most?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Yasser Arafat |
43.4%
|
38.2%
|
51.7%
|
| Ahmad Yassin |
6.0%
|
4.9%
|
7.8%
|
| George Habash |
1.4%
|
1.6%
|
1.1%
|
| Nayef Hawatmeh |
0.4%
|
0.5%
|
0.2%
|
| Haidar Abdul Sahfi |
3.6%
|
3.5%
|
3.7%%
|
| Faisal Husseini |
2.3%
|
2.6%
|
1.7%
|
| Hanan Ashrawi |
2.0%
|
3.1%
|
2%
|
| Sa'eb Erekat |
1.7%
|
1.6%
|
1.7%
|
| Abu Mazen |
1.0%
|
0.8%
|
1.3%
|
| Others |
7%
|
6.6%
|
7.6%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
18.0%
|
22.3%
|
11.1%
|
| No answer |
13.3%
|
14.2%
|
11.7%
|
Q.6 In general, how would you rate the overall performance
of the Palestinian Authority? Would you say that its performance has been
very good, not very good, bad, or very bad?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very good |
12.5%
|
12.3%
|
12.8%
|
| Good |
67.1%
|
65.1%
|
70.2%
|
| Bad |
13.1%
|
13.2%
|
12.8%
|
| Very bad |
2.9%
|
3.9%
|
1.3%
|
| No answer |
4.4%
|
5.4%
|
2.8%
|
Q. 7 In general, how would you rate the overall performance
of the Palestinian Legislative Council? Would you say that its performance
has been very good, good, bad or very bad?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very good |
6.9%
|
7.2%
|
6.5%
|
| Good |
46.9%
|
48.0%
|
45.2%
|
| Bad |
24.6%
|
23.8%
|
25.9%
|
| Very bad |
7.3%
|
5.8%
|
9.8%
|
| No answer |
14.3%
|
15.3%
|
12.6%
|
Q. 8 To what extent would you say that the Palestinian
Legislative Council fulfills the needs of the Palestinian people?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Fulfills the needs well |
25.8%
|
27.3%
|
23.5%
|
| Fulfills the needs to no effect |
48.1%
|
46.2%
|
51.1%
|
| Fulfills the needs in a bad way |
12.8%
|
11.4%
|
15.2%
|
| No answer |
13.3%
|
15.1%
|
10.2%
|
Q. 9 How would you rate the overall performance of the
following Palestinian Authority apparatuses:
a. Security Apparatus
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Good |
52.8%
|
52.4%
|
53.3%
|
| Fair |
13.3%
|
31.4%
|
31.3%
|
| Bad |
10.0%
|
9.2%
|
11.3%
|
| No answer |
5.9%
|
7.0%
|
4.1%
|
b. Palestinian Legislative Council
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Good |
33.8%
|
34.2%
|
33.3%
|
| Fair |
27.7%
|
28.0%
|
27.2%
|
| Bad |
24.1%
|
21.8%
|
27.8%
|
| No answer |
14.4%
|
16.1%
|
11.7%
|
c. Ministerial Cabinet (The Executive Authority)
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Good |
34.3%
|
33.6%
|
35.4%
|
| Fair |
26.6%
|
26.1%
|
27.4%
|
| Bad |
19.0%
|
21.6%
|
14.8%
|
| No answer |
20.1%
|
18.6%
|
22.4%
|
Q. 10 Do you think that President Arafat conducts his
work as the head of the National Authority in a good way, a fair way or
a bad way?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Good |
67.8%
|
61.4%
|
78.3%
|
| Fair |
21.8%
|
24.2%
|
18.0%
|
| Bad |
6.2%
|
8.8%
|
2.0%
|
| No answer |
4.2%
|
5.7%
|
1.7%
|
Q. 11 Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu has suggested
stopping the implementation of the Interim Agreement (Oslo II) and beginning
the final status negotiations. do you think that the Palestinian leadership
should accept this suggestion or not?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Should accept this suggestion |
11.0%
|
8.8%
|
14.6%
|
| Should reject this suggestion |
68.0%
|
67.6%
|
68.7%
|
| Do not know |
14.5%
|
16.1%
|
12.0%
|
| No answer |
6.5%
|
7.6%
|
4.8%
|
Q. 12 Do you support the continuation of military operations
against Israeli targets as an adequate response to the current political
conditions, or do you oppose it and see it as harmful to Palestinian national
interests?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Support military operations |
39.8%
|
41.6%
|
37.0%
|
| Oppose military operations |
47.7%
|
42.7%
|
55.7%
|
| No answer |
12.5%
|
15.7%
|
7.4%
|
Q. 13 What about the suicide bombing operations?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Suport suicide operations |
32.7%
|
35.0%
|
28.9%
|
| Oppose suicide operations |
54.5%
|
48.6%
|
63.9%
|
| No answer |
12.8%
|
16.4%
|
7.2%
|
Q. 14 What about the intensification of Palestinian demonstration
and protests against Israel? Do you support or oppose this intensification
of Palestinian demonstrations and protests against Israel?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Support intensification |
62.7%
|
59.5%
|
67.8%
|
| Oppose intensification |
28.6%
|
29.5%
|
27.2%
|
| No answer |
8.8%
|
11.1%
|
5.0%
|
Q.15 These are numerous ideas for solving the problems
stemming from the recent violations of some aspects of the agreement (Abu
Ghniem, Har Homa, closure of institutions, etc...) Some believe that the
answer is to intensify the negotiations, other say the negotiations should
be stopped, and others say the answer lies in intensifying popular protests.
What is your opinion?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Intensify the negotiations |
33.9%
|
31.5%
|
37.8%
|
| Negotiations should be stopped |
25.7%
|
25.0%
|
26.7%
|
| Intensify popular protests |
19.3%
|
30.1%
|
27.8%
|
| Others |
3.5%
|
4.3%
|
2.2%
|
| No answer |
7.7%
|
9.1%
|
5.4%
|
Q. 16 In your opinion what should the PA (Palestinian
Authority) do regarding popular protests. Do you think the PA should encourage
these protests, should not interfere in these protests, or should the PA
prevent these protests?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Encourage these protests |
31.3%
|
25.9%
|
40.0%
|
| Not interfere in these protests |
37.5%
|
45.4%
|
24.8%
|
| PA should prevent these prortests |
23.1%
|
19.1%
|
29.6%
|
| No answer |
8.1%
|
9.6%
|
5.7%
|
Q. 17 Currently thre is a discussion about municipal elections
in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Some believe that Palestinian refugees
should participate in municipal election whereas others do not believe
they should because of the political ramifications of their participation?
What it your opinion?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Refugees should participate |
70.5%
|
60.9%
|
85.9%
|
| Should not participate |
20.2%
|
26.9%
|
9.3%
|
| No answer |
9.3%
|
12.2%
|
4.8%
|
Q.18 Some think that the level of corruption in the Palestinian
Authority is high, others think that there is corruption but it is not
widespread while others think there isn't any corruption. What do you think?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| There is a great deal |
34.8%
|
30.3%
|
42.2%
|
| There is a fair amount |
44.0%
|
45.5%
|
41.5%
|
| There is hardly any at all |
11.8%
|
13.2%
|
9.3%
|
| No answer |
9.4%
|
10.9%
|
7.0%
|
