Introduction
-
In general, JMCC's July polls showed a further decline in
support for the peace process, the Oslo agreements, the Palestinian Authority,
President Arafat, and the Palestinian Legislative Council. Although, in
general, the changes falls within the margin of error, it remains a change
to the negative. In the case of people's attitude towards Arafat's performance,
however, the drop was beyond the margin of error.
-
The level of pessimism about the future has increased by
3.3% since last May, from 22.4% to 25.7%.
-
When asked how their opinion has changed in comparison with
last year on the peace process and Oslo 7.1% of the people surveyed said
their opinion of the peace process worsened (compared to 7.5% improved),
while 65.2% said that their opinion worsened on Oslo (compared 4.3% improved).
Similar trends appeared regarding opinions on the Palestinian Legislative
Council, oppsoition groups, Fatah and Hamas, although less extreme.
-
More specifically, strong support for the Oslo agreements
dropped 19.7% in December 1996 to 8.2% today. Opposition to the agreeements
increased to 30.4% compared to 19.1% last December.
-
The percentage of people rating President Arafat's overall
performance as "good" dropped from 53.8% last May to 49.5%. In actuality,
this drop could be translated into a loss of more than 75000 supporters.
This drop was evident in the Gaza Strip than in the West Bank. Those who
rated Arafat's performance as "good" in Gaza dropped from 67.1% in May
to 59.5% in July; in the West Bank there was a decline from 46% in May
to 43.8% in July.
Methodology
A random sample of 1,197 Palestinians, over the age of
18 years, were interviewed throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 3
and 4 July 1997. The interviews were conducted on randomly selected homes,
and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according
to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen
randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 750 people were surveyed from the following
areas: Jerusalem: Old city, a-Ram, Dhahyat al-Barid, Shu'fat, Shu'fat
Refugee Camp (RC), 'Izzaria, Abu Dees, al-'Issawia., Silwan, Wadi al-Joz,
Shiekh Jarrah, Ras al-Amoud. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Beit Jala, Beit
Sahour, Dihisheh RC, al-'ibeideih, Nahaleen. Hebron: Hebron, al-Aroub
RC, Halhoul, Daharia, Yatta, Tarqoumia. Jenin: Jenin, Jenin RC,
'Arabeh & Kufr Rai, Qabatia, Ya'bad, Kufr Jamal. Tulkarem: Tulkarem,
Tuklarem RC, Beit Leed, Balata, Irtah, Jayous, Kufr Jamal. Nablus: Nablu,
Beit Fouriq, Balata RC, Beit Fureek, Jama'een & Zeita, Burqa, Huwara.
Ramallah:
Ramallah, Al-Bireh, Ramoun, Turmus 'Aya, Kufr Ni'meh.
Jericho: Jericho.
In the Gaza Strip, 435 people were surveyed from: Gaza
City, al-Shati RC, Khan Younis, al-Amal Neighbourhood, Maghazi RC, Rafah
RC, Yabta, Deir al-Balah RC, Deir al-Balah, Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahya, al-Breji
RC, Shaboura Shuja'ieh, Jabalia, Khan Younis RC, Nusierat RC, al-Rimal,
Gaza al-Tufah, Gaza al-Daraj.
The major of error is plus or minus 3% with a confidence
level of 95%.
Sample Distribution
-
55.1% of the respondents were from the West Bank
-
36.7% from the Gaza Strip
-
8.3% from Jerusalem
-
32.5% said they live in villages
-
22.6% in refugee camps
-
44.9% in towns/cities
-
47.2% were male
-
52.8% were female
-
66.3% were married
-
27.1% were single
-
4.5% were widowed
-
1.2% were divorced
-
0.8% No answer
-
The average of age of the respondents was 33.5 years.
Occupation respondents
Students 13.4%
Waged labourers 10.6%
Housewives 37.2%
Employees eg. secretaries/teachers/nurses/municipal employees
16.5%
Businessmen/private business 8.8%
Farmers/fishermen 1.8%
Craftsmen 1.8%
Professionals - eg. doctors/lawyers/pharmacists/engineers
2.2%
Unemployed 5.1%
Retired 1.8%
No answer 0.8%
Results
Q.1 In general, to what extent would you say you are optimistic
about the future in general? Would you say you are very optimistic, optimistic,
pessimistic, or very pessimistic?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very optimistic |
6.7%
|
6.1%
|
7.7%
|
| Optimistic |
60.1%
|
57.0%
|
65.4%
|
| Pessimistic |
25.7%
|
29.3%
|
19.6%
|
| Very Pessimistic |
6.9%
|
6.9%
|
7.1%
|
| No answer |
0.6%
|
0.7%
|
0.2%
|
Q.2 In general, do you support or oppose the current peace
process between the Palestinians and Israel? Do you strongly support, somewhat
support, strongly oppose or somewhat oppose?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip |
| Strongly support |
22.3%
|
21.4%
|
23.9%
|
| Somewhat support |
46.4%
|
44.9%
|
49.2%
|
| Strongly oppose |
13.6%
|
14.2%
|
12.5%
|
| Somewhat oppose |
12.9%
|
13.9%
|
11.4%
|
| No answer |
4.8%
|
5.6%
|
3.0%
|
Q.3 Which Palestinian political or religious faction do
you trust most?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Fateh |
34.8%
|
34.8%
|
34.9%
|
| Hamas |
11.3%
|
11.1%
|
11.6%
|
| Islamic Jihad |
2.6%
|
2.0%
|
3.6%
|
| PFLP |
3.1%
|
3.7%
|
2.1%
|
| DFLP |
0.8%
|
1.3%
|
0.0%
|
| PPP |
0.8%
|
1.1%
|
0.5%
|
| FIDA |
0.7%
|
0.8%
|
0.5%
|
| Other Islamic Organization |
2.3%
|
2.6%
|
1.6%
|
| Others |
1.0%
|
1.1%
|
1.0%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
31.2%
|
30.3%
|
32.6%
|
| No answer |
11.4%
|
11.2%
|
11.6%
|
Q. 4 Which Palestinian political or religious personality
do you trust most?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Yasser Arafat |
37.6%
|
34.6%
|
42.8%
|
| Ahmed Yassin |
6.7%
|
6.2%
|
7.5%
|
| Hadidar Abdul Shafi |
3.7%
|
3.8%
|
3.4%
|
| Hanan Ashrawi |
2.6%
|
3.3%
|
1.4%
|
| George Habash |
2.5%
|
2.9%
|
1.8%
|
| Sa'eb Erekat |
1.8%
|
2.0%
|
1.4%
|
| Faisal Husseini |
0.9%
|
1.2%
|
0.5%
|
| Abu Mazen |
0.8%
|
1.2%
|
0.2%
|
| Nayef Hawatmeh |
0.6%
|
0.7%
|
0.5%
|
| Others |
8.9%
|
7.2%
|
11.4%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
24.2%
|
26.9%
|
19.6%
|
| No answer |
9.7%
|
10.1%
|
9.6%
|
Q.5 In general, how would you rate the overall performance
of the Palestinian Authority? Would you say that its performance has been
very good, good, bad, or very bad?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very good |
7.7%
|
7.0%
|
8.9%
|
| Good |
59.7%
|
61.3%
|
56.9%
|
| Bad |
21.7%
|
21.1%
|
22.8%
|
| Very bad |
7.4%
|
7.0%
|
8.0%
|
| No answer |
3.5%
|
3.6%
|
3.8%
|
Q.6 In general, how would you rate the overall performance
of the Palestinian President Yasser Arafat? Would you say that his performance
has been good, average, or bad?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Good |
49.5%
|
43.8%
|
59.5%
|
| Average |
33.0%
|
35.5%
|
28.7%
|
| Bad |
12.8%
|
15.6%
|
8.0%
|
| No answer |
4.7%
|
5.1%
|
3.9%
|
Q. 7 In general, how would you rate the overall of the
Palestinian Legislative Council? Would you say that its performance has
been very good, good, bad, or very bad??
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very good |
4.4%
|
4.6%
|
4.1%
|
| Good |
42.3%
|
43.7%
|
39.9%
|
| Bad |
29.7%
|
29.6%
|
30.1%
|
| Very bad |
13.4%
|
10.6%
|
18.2%
|
| No answer |
10.2%
|
11.5%
|
7.7%
|
Q. 8 Now that the Oslo agreements fro the transitional
period have been implemented for some time, to what extent you support
or oppose these agreements?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
8.2%
|
7.4%
|
9.6%
|
| Cautiously support |
54.2%
|
55.4%
|
52.2%
|
| Do not support |
30.4%
|
29.9%
|
31.2%
|
| No answer |
7.2%
|
7.3%
|
7.0%
|
Q. 9 How has your opinion of the following changed in
comparison with last year? Has it improved, worsend or remained the same
as last year?
Total
|
Yasser Arafat
|
Security forces
|
Peace Process
|
Oslo
|
PLC
|
PNA
|
Palestinian opposition
|
Fateh
|
Hamas
|
Hadidar Abdul Shafi
|
| Improved |
42.0%
|
36.3%
|
7.5%
|
4.3%
|
18.0%
|
31.7%
|
15.5%
|
24.8%
|
17.8%
|
16.4%
|
| Worsened |
14.5%
|
29.7%
|
71.0%
|
65.2%
|
34.6%
|
28.4%
|
27.8%
|
25.5%
|
27.1%
|
11.8%
|
| Remained the same as last year |
37.4%
|
24.6%
|
16.6%
|
21.0%
|
33.9%
|
32.7%
|
40.8%
|
37.0%
|
39.0%
|
38.8%
|
| I do not know |
4.3%
|
7.5%
|
3.7%
|
8.1%
|
11.9%
|
5.4%
|
13.0%
|
10.2%
|
13.2%
|
28.7%
|
| No answer |
1.8%
|
1.9%
|
1.2%
|
1.4%
|
1.8%
|
1.9%
|
2.9%
|
2.5%
|
2.9%
|
4.3%
|
West Bank
|
Yasser Arafat
|
Security forces
|
Peace Process
|
Oslo
|
PLC
|
PNA
|
Palestinian opposition
|
Fateh
|
Hamas
|
Hadidar Abdul Shafi
|
| Improved |
34.4%
|
34.7%
|
6.9%
|
4.0%
|
17.3%
|
31.9%
|
12.7%
|
24.5%
|
14.8%
|
12.7%
|
| Worsened |
17.2%
|
29.2%
|
72.6%
|
65.7%
|
34.6%
|
29.7%
|
31.7%
|
26.6%
|
29.7%
|
12.4%
|
| Remained the same as last year |
40.9%
|
24.9%
|
14.9%
|
19.9%
|
32.6%
|
30.6%
|
38.1%
|
34.7%
|
38.1%
|
38.5%
|
| I do not know |
5.4%
|
9.2%
|
4.4%
|
9.1%
|
13.9%
|
6.2%
|
15.2%
|
11.6%
|
14.4%
|
31.3%
|
| No answer |
2.1%
|
2.0%
|
1.2%
|
1.3%
|
1.6%
|
1.6%
|
2.3%
|
2.6%
|
3.0%
|
5.1%
|
Gaza Strip
|
Yasser Arafat
|
Security forces
|
Peace Process
|
Oslo
|
PLC
|
PNA
|
Palestinian opposition
|
Fateh
|
Hamas
|
Hadidar Abdul Shafi
|
| Improved |
55.1%
|
39.2%
|
8.7%
|
4.8%
|
19.4%
|
31.2%
|
20.3%
|
25.3%
|
23.0%
|
22.8%
|
| Worsened |
9.8%
|
30.8%
|
68.3%
|
64.5%
|
34.6%
|
26.2%
|
21.2%
|
23.5%
|
22.6%
|
10.7%
|
| Remained the same as last year |
31.4%
|
23.9%
|
19.6%
|
22.8%
|
36.2%
|
36.2%
|
45.3%
|
41.0%
|
40.5%
|
39.2%
|
| I do not know |
2.3%
|
4.6%
|
2.5%
|
6.4%
|
7.7%
|
4.1%
|
9.3%
|
7.7%
|
11.2%
|
24.1%
|
| No answer |
1.4%
|
1.5%
|
0.9%
|
1.5%
|
2.1%
|
2.3%
|
3.9%
|
2.5%
|
2.7%
|
3.2%
|
Q.10 Some think that the level of corruption in the Palestinian
Authority is high, others think that there is corruption but it is not
widespread while others think there isn't any corruption. What do you think?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| There is a great deal |
44.9%
|
42.0%
|
49.9%
|
| There is a fair amount |
40.7%
|
40.9%
|
40.3%
|
| There is hardly any at all |
6.6%
|
7.9%
|
4.3%
|
| No answer |
7.8%
|
9.2%
|
5.5%
|
