Introduction
Results of JMCC's November public opinion poll indicate
a significat change in Palestinian public opinion on a number of political
issues, which appears due largely to certain significant political events
which occured over the past three months. The main aspects of this shift
in attitude can be summarized as follows:
-
A significant increase in level of support to the Hamas movement
in particular, and to political and religious opposition groups in general.
The level of support and confidence in Hamas rose from 11.3% in July of
this year to 17.3% in this poll. In addition, the level of support and
confidence groups opposing the peace process (Hamas, Islamic Jihad, other
Islamic organizations, PFLP, DFLP) went up to 25% from 20.1% in July. This
may be due to popular sympathy gained by Hamas after the Israeli assassination
attempt against Khalid Masha'al in Amman, and the subsequent release of
Sheikh Yassin. Sheikh Yassin's return to Gaza was accompained by popular
festivals and media coverage that put Hamas and its leaders at the forefront
of the news for some time.
-
The rise in levels of support for the peace process and those
engaged in it, especially the Fateh movement and PA president Yasser Arafat.
Support for the peace process rose to 74.2% from 68.7%. Support for Fateh
increased from 34.8% in Jyly to 40.9%. Moreover, levels of support for
Arafat increased from 37.6% to 46.4%. This could be attributed to the latest
political developments -- Israel's avoiding implementation of the agreements
signed with the Palestinians, and the recent Israeli proposals on redeployment.
These Israeli attempts to avoid their obligations under signed agreements
appear to make the Palestinians then cling to these agreements. It may
be too that President Arafat's firm position against the Israel's proposals
and the increased tension in bilateral relations have caused the increase
in confidence in his leadership. The extensive campaign in the Israeli
media about the state of Arafat's health might also have contributed to
an increase in Palestinian sympathies for him.
-
The increase in support both for Fateh and the opposition
go hand in hand with a decrease in respondents who say the trust no one.
People who felt they had no trust in anyone decreased from 31.2% in July
to 17.3% in November. It may be that the escalating political crisis between
Palestinians and Israelis has deepened the polarization among Palestinians,
leading to a decrease in number of reluctant Palestinians and increasing
the divisions between those who support and those in opposition.
-
On the conomic level, only 19.2% of those surveyed believe
that the peace process has had a positive impact on the Palestinian economy,
while 38.3% believe that the peace process has had either a very negative
or negative impact on the Palestinian economy. It is worth nothing that
these
figures coincide with recent UN reports indicating a decline in living
standards and national and individual incomes in Palestine during the peace
process years.
-
Finally, 81% still believe that corruption is widespread
in the Palestinian Authority; only 6.9% believe there is no corruption.
40.8% perecent believe that the Authority is capable of handling this corruption,
while 47.8% see the Authority as not doing enought to fight corruption.
Methodology
A random sample of 1,10 Palestinians, over the age of
18 years, were interviewed throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 19,
20 and 21 November 1997. The interviews were conducted on randomly selected
homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according
to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen
randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 749 people were surveyed from the following
areas: Jerusalem: Od city, Beit Hanina, al-Ram, Dahyat al-Barid,
al-'Izaria, Jabal al-Mukaber. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Beit Jala, Beit
Sahour, Deiheishe Refugee Camp (RC). Hebron: Hebron, Halhoul, Beit
Ummar, Bani Na'im, Dura, Sa'ir, Yatta. Jenin: Jenin, Jenin RC, Ya'bad,
Yamoun, 'Arabeh, Zababdeh.Tulkarem: Tulkarem, Tuklarem RC, Anbat,
Far'oun, 'Illar. Qalqilia: Qalqilia. Nablus: Nablus, Balta
RC, Beit Fureek, Beit Dajan, Salfit, Hiwara, 'Ain Abous. Ramallah:
Ramallah, Al-Bireh, Jalzon RC, Jifna, Deir Abu Masha'el, Biddu, Ramun.
Jericho:
Jericho, 'Aqbat Jabr.
In the Gaza Strip, 431 people were surveyed from: Gaza
city (Rimal, Sheikh Radwan, Shujaiya, Nasir, Sabra, Zeitoun), Shati RC,
Khan Younis, Khan Younis RC, 'Abassan, Bani Suhelia, Rafah, Barazil, Rafah
RC, Jabalia, Jabalia RC, Deir al-Balah, Deir al-Balah RC, Bureij RC, Nusseirat
RC, Maghazi RC.
The major of error is plus or minus 3% with a confidence
level of 95%.
Sample Distribution
-
57.1% of the respondents were from the West Bank
-
36.5% from the Gaza Strip
-
6.4% from Jerusalem
-
31.6% said they live in villages
-
22.3% in refugee camps
-
46.1% in towns/cities
-
45.6% were male
-
54.4% were female
-
62.0% were married
-
24.9% were single
-
4.1% were widowed
-
2.9% were divorced
-
6.1% No answer
-
The average of age of the respondents was 34 years.
Occupation respondents
Students 10.8%
Waged labourers 11.6%
Housewives 39.7%
Employees eg. secretaries/teachers/nurses/municipal employees
17.3%
Businessmen/private business 8.2%
Farmers/fishermen 2.2%
Craftsmen 1.4%
Professionals - eg. doctors/lawyers/pharmacists/engineers
1.4%
Unemployed 5.5%
Retired 1.4%
No answer 0.5%
Results
Q.1 How optimistic or pessimitic are your towards the
future in general? Can you say you are very optimistic, optimistic, pessimistic
or very pessimistic?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very optimistic |
6.3%
|
5.6%
|
7.4%
|
| Optimistic |
66.1%
|
66.5%
|
65.4%
|
| Pessimistic |
20.3%
|
21.0%
|
19.0%
|
| Very Pessimistic |
5.8%
|
5.6%
|
6.3%
|
| No answer |
1.5%
|
1.3%
|
1.9%
|
Q.2 In general, do you support or oppose the current peace
process between the Palestinians and Israel? Do you strongly support, somewhat
support, strongly oppose or somewhat oppose?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip |
| Strongly support |
31.9%
|
33.9%
|
28.5%
|
| Somewhat support |
42.3%
|
40.6%
|
45.2%
|
| Strongly oppose |
9.4%
|
10.1%
|
8.1%
|
| Somewhat oppose |
12.7%
|
11.9%
|
14.2%
|
| No opinion / do not know |
2.5%
|
2.5%
|
2.3%
|
| No answer |
1.2%
|
1.0%
|
1.7%
|
Q.3 Do you support or oppose the continuation of negotiations
between the Palestinians and Israelis? Do you strongly support or somewhat
support or strongly oppose or somewhat oppose?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
33.3%
|
34.0%
|
32.0%
|
| Somewhat support |
39.4%
|
37.5%
|
42.7%
|
| Strongly oppose |
11.5%
|
12.6%
|
9.7%
|
| Somewhat oppose |
11.7%
|
11.6%
|
11.8%
|
| No opinion / do not know |
2.5
|
2.5%
|
2.6%
|
| No answer |
1.6%
|
1.8%
|
1.2%
|
Q. 4 How confident are you that the Palestinians and Israelis
will reach a satisfactory agreement on final-status issues?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very confident |
7.4%
|
7.2%
|
7.7%
|
| Somewhat confident |
40.8%
|
39.1%
|
43.9%
|
| Not confident |
30.2%
|
31.2%
|
28.3%
|
| Not confident at all |
17.5%
|
17.6%
|
17.4%
|
| No answer |
4.1%
|
4.9%
|
2.7%
|
Q.5 Which Palestinian Personality do you trust most?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Yasser Arafat |
46.4%
|
42.6%
|
52.9%
|
| Ahmed Yasin |
5.8%
|
4.1%
|
8.6%
|
| Hadiar Abdul Shafi |
5.3%
|
6.4%
|
3.2%
|
| Sa'eb Erekat |
2.7%
|
2.9%
|
2.3%
|
| Hanan Ashrawi |
2.0%
|
2.4%
|
1.4%
|
| Faisal Husseini |
1.4%
|
1.3%
|
1.6%
|
| George Habash |
1.3%
|
1.5%
|
0.9%
|
| Other personalties |
8.5%
|
9.1%
|
7.4%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
16.9%
|
18.3%
|
14.4%
|
| No answer |
9.7%
|
11.4%
|
7.3%
|
Q.6 How did the peace process between the Palestinians
and Israel affected our economy?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very positive |
1.9%
|
1.7%
|
2.1%
|
| Positive |
17.3%
|
19.4%
|
13.7%
|
| Negative |
42.6%
|
42.3%
|
43.2%
|
| Very negative |
25.7%
|
22.4%
|
31.3%
|
| Did not have an effect at all |
7.8%
|
9.6%
|
4.6%
|
| No answer |
4.7%
|
4.6%
|
5.1%
|
Q. 7 Which Palestinian political or religious faction
you trust most?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Fateh |
40.9%
|
38.2%
|
45.7%
|
| Hamas |
17.3%
|
16.3%
|
19.0%
|
| PFLP |
2.0%
|
2.0%
|
2.1%
|
| Islamic Jihad |
1.8%
|
0.9%
|
3.2%
|
| DFLP |
0.9%
|
1.1%
|
0.7%
|
| PPP |
0.7%
|
0.9%
|
0.2%
|
| FIDA |
0.4%
|
0.7%
|
0.0%
|
| Other Islamic Faction |
3.0%
|
4.1%
|
0.9%
|
| Other Factions |
1.2%
|
1.2%
|
1.2%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
17.3%
|
17.4%
|
17.2%
|
| No answer |
14.5%
|
17.2%
|
9.8%
|
Q. 8 In general, how do you evaluate the Palestinian Authority's
performance? Do you say its performance is very good, good, bad or very
bad?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very good |
12.0%
|
10.3%
|
15.1%
|
| Good |
59.4%
|
60.6%
|
57.3%
|
| Bad |
17.1%
|
17.4%
|
16.7%
|
| Very bad |
7.3%
|
6.8%
|
8.1%
|
| No answer |
4.2%
|
4.9%
|
2.8%
|
Q.9 Do you support or oppose the method that the President
Yasser Arafat administers his work as the National Authority's President?
Strongly support, somewhat support, strongly oppose or somewhat oppose?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
36.2%
|
33.9%
|
40.1%
|
| Somewhat support |
34.4%
|
34.3%
|
34.6%
|
| Strongly oppose |
7.1%
|
7.9%
|
5.8%
|
| Somewhat oppose |
14.2%
|
14.8%
|
13.2%
|
| No opinion / do not know |
5.3%
|
6.0%
|
4.2%
|
| No answer |
2.8%
|
3.1%
|
2.1%
|
Q.10 In your opinion, how spread is the corruption, if
found in the Palestinian Authority's (PA) institutions? It is very spread,
fairly spread, little spread, or not spread at all / no corruption?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very spread |
28.3%
|
27.5%
|
29.7%
|
| Fairly spread |
35.1%
|
35.4%
|
34.6%
|
| Little spread |
18.6%
|
17.1%
|
21.1%
|
| Not spread at all / no corruption |
6.9%
|
6.8%
|
7.2%
|
| No opinion / do not know |
8.3%
|
10.9%
|
3.7%
|
| No answer |
2.8%
|
2.3%
|
3.7%
|
Q.11 What about the Palestinian Authority's (PA) attempts
to deal with the corruption issue. Do you think that the PA is working
greatly, working enough, or it is not doing enough to deal with corruption?
(This
question asked only to those who didn't answer not spread at all / no corruption
in Q. 10 above)
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Greatly |
7.4%
|
7.8%
|
6.8%
|
| Enough |
33.4%
|
31.1%
|
37.5%
|
| Not doing enough |
47.8%
|
47.0%
|
49.2%
|
| No opinion / do not know |
0.1%
|
0.1%
|
0.0%
|
| No answer |
11.3%
|
14.0%
|
6.5%
|
