Introduction
The results of JMCC’s opinion poll May 21-22, 1998, indicate
to decrease in support for the peace process and for the Palestinian Authority
in general, despite the fact that those supporting the peace process and
the PA are more than those opposing them. The main results can be summarized
as follows, in comparison with the previous poll with the same questions:
-
Despite the fact that the majority of Palestinians remained
optimistic, there was a drop in the percentage of optimists from 72.4%
last November to 65.6% in May, 1998.
-
There was a decrease in the majority of those supporting
the peace process in general from 74.2% in November, 1997 to 63.7% in May,
1998.
-
A decrease in the percentage of those who have confidence
in President Yasser Arafat from 46.4% last November to 38.7% in May, 1998
while there was a rise in the percentage of those who trust Sheikh Ahmad
Yaseen from 5.8% last November to 8.4% in May 1998. It seems probable that
the rise in confidence in Sheikh Yaseen is attributed to the media focus
on his rcent Arab tour.
-
One of the main significat changes shown in this poll is
the notable rise in the number of Palestinians who do not trust any of
the political or religious factions or figures. The percentage of those
who do not trust any of the political or religious factions increased from
17.3% last November to 29.1% in May, 1998 while those who do not trust
any of the political or religious figures increased from 16.9% in November,
1997 to 24.8% in May.
-
Regarding confidence in Fateh, the most popular movement
among the Palestinian people, the percentage, which was 40.9% last November,
dropped to 32.9% in May 1998.
-
The percetage of Palestinians who trust Hamas dropped to
its somewhat consistent rate of 13.3% in May, 1998 compared to 17.3% last
November. It should be noted that the percentage of those who trust Hamas
was 11.3% in July 1997 and 10.3% in May 1997. THe abrupt increase in November,
1997 (17.3%) seems to have been temporary, resulting from special events,
such as the assassination attempt against one of its leaders in Amman and
the release of Sheikh Ahmad Yaseen, in addition to the broad media coverage.
-
Assessment of the performance of the Palestinian Authority
registered a slight retreat from 71.4% last November to 64.6% in May 1998.
-
Palestinian public appraisal regarding the performance of
the Palestinian Legislative Council showed a slight improvement from 56.7%
who viewed it as good or very good last November to 52.2% in May, 1998.
Methodology
A random sample of 1,208 Palestinians, over the age of
18 years, were interviewed throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 21
and 22 May 1998. The interviews were conducted on randomly selected homes,
and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according
to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen
randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 775 people were surveyed
from the following areas: Jenin: Jenin & Jenin Refugee Camp
(RC), al-Yamoun, 'Arabeh & Kufr Rai, Zababdeh & 'Aqabeh & Ya'bad.
Nablus: Nablus & Balata RC, Beit Fureek & Salfit, Frkha,
Burqa, Huwara, Bureen. Tulkarem: Tulkarem & Tulkarem RC, 'Azzoun,
Illar, 'Anabta. Qalqilia: Qalqilia. Bethlehem: Bethlehem,
Beit Jala, Beit Sahour, Dheisheh RC, Nahalen, Al-Khader. Hebron:
Hebron, Dura, Fawar RC, Halhoul, Dhaharia, Yatta, Tarqoumia. Jerusalem:
Old City, al-Ram, Dhayat al-Bareed, Beit Hanina, Al-'Izzaria, Abu Dees.
Jericho:
Jericho. Ramallah: Ramallah, al-Bireh, al-'Amari RC, al-Tayebh,
Kobar, Ni'lin.
In the Gaza Strip, 433 people were surveyed
from: al-Sabra, Shujaia (Daraj & Tufah), Zeitoon, Rimal, Nasser, Sheikh
Radwn, Shati RC, Jabalia, Jabalia RC, Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, Deir al-Balah
RC, Nusseirat, Bureji, Rafah, Rafah RC, Yubna, Khan Younis, Khan Younis
RC, Bani Suheila, 'Abassan.
Sample Distribution
-
56.7% of the respondents were from the West Bank
-
35.8% from the Gaza Strip
-
7.5% from Jerusalem
-
36.5% said they live in villages
-
20.1% in refugee camps
-
43.4% in towns/cities
-
48.5% were male
-
51.5% were female
-
59.8% were married
-
30.5% were single
-
4.5% were widowed
-
1.9% were divorced
-
3.3% no answer
-
The average of age of the respondents was 34 years.
Occupation respondents
Students 14.5%
Waged labourers 12.6%
Housewives 34.4%
Employees eg. secretaries/teachers/nurses/municipal employees
16.7%
Businessmen/private business 7.2%
Farmers/fishermen 2.0%
Craftsmen 1.3%
Professionals - eg. doctors/lawyers/pharmacists/engineers
1.8%
Unemployed 5.7%
Retired 1.5%
No answer 2.3%
Results
Q.1 How optimistic or pessimistic are you towards the
future in general? Can you say you are very optimistic, optimistic pessimistic
or very pessimistic?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very optimistic |
6.6%
|
5.4%
|
8.8%
|
| Optimistic |
59.0%
|
59.9%
|
57.5%
|
| Pessimistic |
23.2%
|
23.1%
|
23.3%
|
| Very pessimistic |
10.3%
|
11.0%
|
9.2%
|
| No answer |
0.9%
|
0.6%
|
1.2%
|
Q.2 In general, how do you feel about the Palestinian
- Israeli peace process? Would you say that you strongly support, somewhat
support, neither support or oppose, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose
the Palestinian - Israeli peace process?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip |
| Strongly support |
16.1%
|
11.4%
|
24.5%
|
| Somewhat support |
47.6%
|
51.7%
|
40.2%
|
| Neither support not oppose |
13.8%
|
14.5%
|
12.7%
|
| Somewhat oppose |
9.6%
|
9.4%
|
9.9%
|
| Strongly oppose |
11.8%
|
12.0%
|
11.5%
|
| No answer |
1.1%
|
1.0%
|
1.2%
|
Q.3 Which Palestinian political or religious faction do
you trust most?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Fatah |
32.9%
|
30.7%
|
36.7%
|
| Hamas |
13.3%
|
11.4%
|
16.9%
|
| PFLP |
2.8%
|
3.2%
|
2.1%
|
| Islamic Jihad |
0.8%
|
0.5%
|
1.4%
|
| PPP |
1.2%
|
1.7%
|
0.2%
|
| Other Islamic Faction |
3.9%
|
4.9%
|
2.1%
|
| Other Factions |
2.9%
|
3.9%
|
1.3%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
29.11%
|
30.3%
|
27.2%
|
| No answer |
13.1%
|
13.4%
|
12.1%
|
Q. 4 Which Palestinian personality do you trust most?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Yasser Arafat |
38.7%
|
34.5%
|
46.4%
|
| Ahmad Yaseen |
8.4%
|
7.6%
|
9.7%
|
| Haidar Abdul Shafi |
3.4%
|
3.2%
|
3.7%
|
| Hanan Ashrawi |
2.4%
|
3.0%
|
1.4%
|
| George Habash |
1.8%
|
1.7%
|
2.1%
|
| Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) |
1.1%
|
0.6%
|
1.8%
|
| Faisal Husseini |
0.9%
|
0.6%
|
1.4%
|
| Saeb Erekat |
0.9%
|
0.6%
|
1.4%
|
| Other Personalities |
6.7%
|
6.5%
|
6.9%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
24.8%
|
29.9%
|
15.7%
|
| No answer |
10.9%
|
11.8%
|
9.5%
|
Q.5 What do you think abou the Oslo agreement? Would you
say that you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose it?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
8.9%
|
5.8%
|
14.5%
|
| Somewhat support |
55.6%
|
59.1%
|
49.4%
|
| Somewhat oppose |
14.9%
|
13.7%
|
17.1%
|
| Strongly oppose |
13.6%
|
14.2%
|
12.5%
|
| No answer |
7.0%
|
7.2%
|
6.5%
|
Q.6 In general, how do you evaluate the Palestinian Authority's
performance? Do you say its performane is very good, good, bad or very
bad?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very good |
9.1%
|
7.0%
|
12.9%
|
| Good |
55.5%
|
56.5%
|
53.8%
|
| Bad |
21.6%
|
21.3%
|
22.2%
|
| Very bad |
10.2%
|
11.4%
|
8.1%
|
| No answer |
3.6%
|
3.8%
|
3.0%
|
Q. 7 In general, how do you evaluate the Palestinian Legislative
Council's performance? Do you say it is very good performance, goo, bad
or very bad?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very good |
5.8%
|
5.3%
|
6.7%
|
| Good |
46.4%
|
45.4%
|
48.3%
|
| Bad |
25.6%
|
26.5%
|
24.0%
|
| Very bad |
14.1%
|
13.8%
|
14.5%
|
| No answer |
8.1%
|
9.0%
|
6.5%
|
