Introduction
The poll indicates continued decline in support for the
peace process and the Oslo accords. The decline began to emerge about a
year ago.
The decline shown this year is a departure from the first
four years of Oslo, when the Palestinian public showed consistent support
for the Palestinian-Israeli peace process despite sudden and dramatic changes
in the political and economic. Greater opposition to Oslo has been drawn
not only from former supporters, but from people who previously had no
opinion.
The negative trend can be measured through three main
indicators: support for Arafat, his faction Fateh and the peace process
itself.
In December 96, Arafat was considered the most trusted
politician by 42% of those surveyed. Now the number has declined to 32.6%.
In October 96, Fateh's
Support
was measured at 42%. That number has fallen to 34.4%
In December 96, support for the peace process was 78.1%.
Now 55.6% expressed strong or lukewarm support for the peace process.
Moreover, Palestinians opposing Oslo accords increased
from 23.1% in November 1997 to reach 36% this August; the increase in opposition
came at the expense of those who had know position regarding Oslo, which
was 4.1% in November 1997 going down to 1.2% this August.
Results were obtained through a random sample poll of
1,192 people throughout the West Bank and Gaza conducted on August 27-28,
1998.
Methodology
A random sample of 1192 people over the age of 18 were
interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 27,28
August 1998. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes,
and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly accordingg
to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen
randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 757 people were
surveyed from the following areas: Jenin: Jenin, Jenin &
RC, Toubas & Aqaba, ‘Arabeh, Ya’abad, Silat al-Harthia. Nablus:
Nablus, Salfit,, ‘Asira & RC, Beit Fureek, Hiwara. Tulkarem:
Tulkarem & RC, Beit Leed, ‘Illar. Qalqilia: Qalqilia.
Bethlehem:
Bethlehem, Beit Jala, Beit Sahour, Al Kgader & RC, Hussan &
Bateer. Hebron: ‘Hebron, Hebron+ RC, al-Samou’, Idna, Bani
Na’im, Hal houl, al-Dhaharia. Jerusalem: Old City, A-Ram,
Dahyat al-Bareed, Beit Hanina, Silwan, Ras al-Amoud, al -’Issawia, Abu
Dees, Biddu & Beit Sureek. Jericho: Jericho. Ramallah:
Ramallah, al-Bireh, Kobar+Jalzoun, Beitunia, al-Mizra’ al-Shaqia.
In the Gaza Strip, 435 people were
surveyed from: Gaza: al-Rimal, Nasser, Sheikh Radwan, Sabra
+Zeitoon, Shujayeh,Nazleh, al Daraj+al-tufah, Shati RC, Jabalia, Jabalia
RC, Bet Lahia, Beit Hanoun, Deir al Balah& RC, Nusseirat RC, Magazi
RC, Khan Younis, Khan Younis Rc, Abassan, Rafah, Rafah RC, Tal al-Sultan
The margin of error is 3 percent, with a confidence level
of 95.
Sample Distribution
-
53.6% of the respondents were from the West Bank
-
36.5% from the Gaza Strip
-
9.9% from Jerusalem
-
41.0% said they live in villages
-
17.8% in refugee camps
-
41.0% in towns/cities
-
49.7% were male, 50.3% were female
-
57.8% were married, 28.7% single, 4.4% widowed, 1.4% divorced,
7.7% no answer.
-
The average of age of the respondents was 34 years.
Occupation respondents
Students 14.3%
Waged labourers 12.7%
Housewives 32.6%
Employees eg. secretaries/teachers/nurses/municipal employees
19.9%
Businessmen/private business 8.1%
Farmers/fishermen 3.0%
Craftsmen 2.3%
Professionals - eg. doctors/lawyers/pharmacists/engineers
2.0%
Unemployed 5.5%
Retired 1.9%
No answer 0.7%
Results
Q.1 How optimistic are you towards the future in general?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very optimistic |
6.0%
|
5.4%
|
6.9%
|
| Optimistic |
62.6%
|
62.6%
|
62.5%
|
| Pessimistic |
19.8%
|
19.8%
|
19.8%
|
| Very pessimistic |
9.9%
|
10.6%
|
8.7%
|
| No answer |
1.7%
|
1.6%
|
2.1%
|
Q.2 After 5 years of implementing Oslo agreements for
the transitional period, to what extent do you support or oppose these
agreements?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip |
| Strongly support |
9.9%
|
10.3%
|
9.2%
|
| Cautiously support |
52.9%
|
53.2%
|
52.4%
|
| Oppose |
36.0%
|
35.3%
|
37.2%
|
| No answer |
1.2%
|
1.2%
|
1.2%
|
Q.3 In general, do you support or oppose the Palestinian-Israeli
peace process between the Palestinians and Israel?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
10.9%
|
11.0%
|
10.8%
|
| Somewhat support |
44.7%
|
45.0%
|
44.1%
|
| Strongly oppose |
20.6%
|
19.8%
|
21.8%
|
| Somewhat oppose |
16.4%
|
16.5%
|
16.3%
|
| No opinion |
2.9%
|
2.9%
|
3.0%
|
| No answer |
4.6%
|
4.8%
|
4.0%
|
Q. 4 Which Palestinian personality do you trust most?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Yasser Arafat |
32.6%
|
31.2%
|
34.9%
|
| Ahmad Yaseen |
6.6%
|
6.9%
|
6.2%
|
| Haidar Abdul Shafi |
6.5%
|
6.3%
|
6.9%
|
| Hanan Ashrawi |
3.5%
|
3.6%
|
3.4%
|
| Saeb Erekat |
2.9%
|
2.5%
|
3.7%
|
| Faisal Husseini |
2.5%
|
2.8%
|
2.1%
|
| George Habash |
2.3%
|
2.6%
|
1.8%
|
| Mahamoud Abbas |
1.4%
|
1.2%
|
1.8%
|
| Other personalities |
8.0%
|
6.1%
|
10.2%
|
| I do not trust anyone |
25.4%
|
25.9%
|
24.6%
|
| No answer |
8.3%
|
10.9%
|
4.4%
|
Q.5 Which Palestinian political or religious faction do
you trust most?
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Fateh |
34.4%
|
30.3%
|
41.6%
|
| Hamas |
13.4%
|
12.9%
|
14.3%
|
| PFLP |
3.7%
|
3.7%
|
3.7%
|
| Islamic Jihad |
1.8%
|
1.5%
|
2.3%
|
| Other Isalmic factions |
1.3%
|
1.7%
|
0.5%
|
| Other factions |
3.3%
|
4.3%
|
1.5%
|
| Do not trust anyone |
28.9%
|
30.9%
|
25.5%
|
| No answer |
13.2%
|
14.7%
|
10.6%
|
Go to Part Two
