Introduction
-
Most of the Palestinian people 51.6% do not expect a declaration
of the Palestinian state by September.
-
Most of the Palestinian people 59.8% do not expect that a
final status agreement will be reached by September.
-
The Palestinian people are divided on trusting the Palestinian
leadership steadfastness in its declared positions in the final status
negotiations on Jerusalem, settlements and refugees.
-
Trust in Palestinian President Yasser Arafat remains relatively
low at 31.8% while remaining the most trusted figure.
-
Trust in Fateh remains low at 34.5% while remaining the most
popular faction.
-
About 90 percent of the Palestinian people still believe
there is corruption within the Palestinian Authority institutions with
varied degrees.
-
33.5% believe that the Palestinian leadership should resort
to means other than peace negotiations such as confrontations and resistance,
if the Palestinian and Israeli sides can't reach a final agreement by September
2000.
The lastest public opinion poll conducted on 23 June 2000
by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre (JMCC) showed that the
expectations of the Palestinian people regarding the possibility the leadership
declares a state is limited and not high.
Only 37.8 percent of those interviewed expected the Palestinian
leadership to declare a state while 51.6 percent expected the leadership
not to declare a state. This is despite the fact that 48.3 percent see
that a state should be declared in any case while 22.3 percent support
declaring the state only after clinching an agreement with Israel. There
are 21 percent of those interviewed who see declaring or not declaring
a state unimportant.
Furthermore, there were lower expectations, but to a greater
degree, on the possibility of reaching a final status agreement by the
set date of September 2000. Only 17.8 percent said that both sides could
reach a final solution in September while 59.8 percent expected that the
two sides will not be able to reach a final solution by the set date. Of
those interviewed, 19.7 percent found it difficult to expect anything at
all.
As for how much the Palestinian people are confident and
trust the negotiation performance of the Palestinian leadership and its
handling of the current final status talks; it appeared that the extent
of trust is low. Only 35.8 percent of those interviewed said they trust
the method of managing these negotiations while 54.7 percent said they
do not trust and are not confident to the method the leadership manages
these negotiations.
Consequently, what affirms the low trust in the leadership
is the division of the Palestinian people on their trust that the leadership
will hold on to its declared negotiation positions. There are 20.3 percent
who said they are very confident of the leadership’s unwavering positions,
28.3 are somewhat confident while 25.3 percent expressed their total non-confidence
and 25.3 percent are somewhat not confident.
In regards to the negotiation positions and the public
opinion on some of the suggested comprises being talked about in the media,
it appeared that the Palestinian people’s tendencies lean more to holding
on to the declared positions of the Palestinian people and PLO leadership.
When asked about supporting the idea of solving the settlement problem
by annexing part of the land where settlements are built to Israel and
creating a Palestinian state on the remaining 70-80 percent, only 3.8 percent
of those interviewed said this is an acceptable solution. But 64.7 percent
rejected this solution while 26.2 percent said they prefer to study this
option and think about it prior to making a position on it.
As for the refugee issue, only 10.8 percent said they
accept a solution whereas the refugees are naturalized in their host countries
and a small number returns through a family reunification program. In contrast,
48.8 percent said this solution is totally rejected and 34.9 percent said
they need to think about this option and study it prior to making a position
on it.
In respects to the issue of Jerusalem, 6.2 percent of
the Palestinians said they will accept a solution keeping the city under
Israeli sovereignty while giving the Palestinians a presence in its outskirts
such as Abu Dees as well as the holy sites. Meanwhile, the majority, 62.3
percent, considered this solution bad and unacceptable.
Methodology
A random sample of 1200 people over the age
of 18 were interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip
on 22, 23 June 2000. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected
homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according
to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 59 sampling points chosen
randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 762 people were surveyed
from the following areas: Jenin: Jenin, Tubas, Jenin refugee camp,
al-Yamoun, Kufr Rai', 'Arabeh, Zababdeh, Maythaloun, Sanour. Nablus:
Nablus, 'Azmout, 'Askar Refugee camp, Haris, Bidia, Nus jbeil, Beit Imreen,
Huwwara, Beta. Tulkarem: Tulkarem, Anabta, Deir al-Ghousoun, Kufar
Jmal, 'Ateel, Tulkarem refugee camp. Qalqilia: Qalqilia and Azzoun.
Hebron:
Hebron,
Bani Na'im, al-Sasmmou', Dura, Idthna, al-Fawwar refugee camp, Beit Ummar,
S'eer. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Husan, Bateer, Beit ta'mar, Duheishe
refugee camp. Jericho:
Jericho and Aqabat Jaber refugee camp. Ramallah
& Jerusalem: al-Bireh, Jalazon refugee camp, Ramallah, Birzeit,
Kufr Malik, Ni'lin, Abu Deis, al-Izarieh, Beir Nabala, Kufr 'aqab, Qalandia
refugee camp, Jabal al-mukabber, Old City, Shu'fat, Beit Hanina, Wadi al-Joz,
Sheikh Jarrah.
In the Gaza Strip, 438 people were surveyed
from: Gaza North: Jabalia refugee camp, Jabalia, Beit Lahia and
Beit Hanoun. Gaza: Sheikh Radwan, a-Darji, a-Tufah, Sabra, a-Zeitoon,
a-Nasser, a-Shujaeih, a-Rimal north and south and Shati refugee camp. Deir
al- Balah: Nusseirat refugee camp, Deir al-Balah . Khan Younis:
'Abssan al-Saghira, 'Abssan al-Kabira, Khan Younis refugee camp, Khan Younis,
Bani Suheila. Rafah: Rafahand Tal al-Sultan refugee camp.
Sample Distribution
54.2% of the respondents were from West Bank,
9.3% from Jerusalem, 36.5% from the Gaza Strip.
28.7% said they live in villages, 15.8% in
refugee camps, 55.6% in towns/cities.
50.9% were male, 49.1% were female.
64.3% were married, 26.7%, single, 4.6% widowed,
1.6% divorced, 2.9% no answer.
The average age of the respondents was 34
years.
The margin of error is 3 percent, with a confidence level
of 95.
Occupation respondents
Students 11.7% laborers 15.0% Farmers/fishermen
2.7%
Craftsmen 1.6% Businessmen/private business
7.6%
Employees e.g. secretaries/municipal employees/teachers/nurses
18.2%
Professionals - e.g. doctors/lawyers/ pharmacists/engineers
2.4%
Housewives, unemployed and retired 40.0%
Results
Q.1 In general, how optimistic or pessimistic are you
towards the future?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| Very optimistic |
6.3
|
6.2
|
6.6
|
| Optimistic |
61.7
|
61.0
|
62.5
|
| Pessimistic |
23.8
|
23.9
|
23.5
|
| Very pessimistic |
7.4
|
7.7
|
7.1
|
| No answer |
0.8
|
1.2
|
0.0
|
Q.2 In general, how do you evaluate the performance of
the Palestinian Authority?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| Very good |
6.8
|
6.8
|
6.8
|
| Good |
53.9
|
56.6
|
49.3
|
| Bad |
25.2
|
22.7
|
29.5
|
| Very bad |
11.4
|
10.2
|
13.5
|
| No answer |
2.7
|
3.7
|
0.9
|
Q.3 What is your opinion in Oslo formula?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| Strongly support |
6.6
|
6.4
|
6.8
|
| Somewhat support |
51.3
|
52.3
|
49.8
|
| Somewhat oppose |
19.9
|
18.9
|
21.7
|
| Strongly oppose |
15.9
|
14.7
|
18.0
|
| I don't know/No answer |
6.3
|
7.7
|
3.7
|
Q.4 Who is the Palestinian figure you trust the most?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| Yasser Arafat |
31.8
|
31.1
|
33.1
|
| Ahmad Yaseen |
6.1
|
3.5
|
10.5
|
| Haidar Abdul Shafi |
4.2
|
2.9
|
6.4
|
| Sa'eb Erekat |
3.2
|
3.9
|
1.8
|
| Othe figures |
14.5
|
13.5
|
16.7
|
| I turst nobody |
32.6
|
35.8
|
26.9
|
| No answer |
7.6
|
9.3
|
4.6
|
Q.5 Which political faction do you trust the most?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| Fateh |
34.5
|
31.8
|
39.3
|
| Hamas |
12.0
|
10.2
|
15.1
|
| PFLP |
2.3
|
2.0
|
2.7
|
| Other factions |
3.9
|
3.7
|
4.5
|
| I don't trust any faction |
37.3
|
39.2
|
33.8
|
| No answer |
10.0
|
13.1
|
4.6
|
Q.6 In your opinion, What is the extent of corruption
(if found) in the Palestinian Authority apparatuses or institutions?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| Strongly spread |
33.5
|
32.2
|
36.1
|
| Somewhat spread |
39.5
|
38.7
|
40.9
|
| A little spread |
17.2
|
17.5
|
16.7
|
| Not spread at all |
5.1
|
5.3
|
4.5
|
| No answer |
4.7
|
6.3
|
1.8
|
Q.7 The final status negotiations between the Palestinians
and Israelis began recently and it includes the issues of Jerusalem, refugees,
borders and settlements. Ara you confident of the method the Palestinian
leadership is handling the negotiations of these issues Or are you unconfident
and worried?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| I am confident of the method the Palestinian leadership
is handling the final status negotiations |
35.8
|
35.4
|
36.5
|
| I am unconfident and worried of the method the Palestinian
leadership is handling the final status negotiations |
54.7
|
54.1
|
55.7
|
| I don't know |
8.2
|
9.1
|
6.6
|
| No answer |
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.2
|
Q.8 According to the signed agreements, Israel and the
Palestinian Authority have to reach a final agreement on permanent status
issues such as Jerusalem, refugees and settlements by September 2000, that
is three months from now. What is you opinion?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| I expect that they reach a final agreement during the
three months |
17.8
|
16.8
|
19.6
|
| They will not reach a final agreement within the three
months |
59.8
|
61.4
|
57.1
|
| It is difficult to know the answer |
19.7
|
18.8
|
21.2
|
| I don't have an opinion |
2.7
|
3.0
|
2.1
|
Q.9 If both the Israeli and the Palestinian sides could
not reach a final agreement on the agreed date of September 2000, what
in your opinion should the Palestinian leadership do? Do you approve to
extend the date and continue the negotiations or to stop the negotiations
with Israel, or it has to refer to different means other than negotiations
such as confrontation and resistance?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| Aprrove to extend the date and continue with peace negotiations
with Israel |
34.6
|
37.5
|
29.5
|
| End peace negotiations with Israel |
25.7
|
23.6
|
29.2
|
| Refer to other means other than peace negotiations such
as confrontations and resistance |
33.5
|
31.4
|
37.2
|
| I don't know |
5.4
|
6.3
|
3.9
|
| No answer |
0.8
|
1.2
|
0.2
|
Q.10 During the current final status negotiations on the
refugee issue, there are suggestions of compromised solutions including:
containing a large number of refugees in the West Bank and Gaza Strip,
reunification of a number of refugee families in Israel about few tens
of thousands and compensating the rest of the refugees at their present
habitation. What is your opinion of this suggested solution?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| The mentioned solution is totally rejected |
48.8
|
43.2
|
58.4
|
| The mentioned solution should be studied and deeply thought
of before making a viewpoint on it |
34.9
|
36.9
|
31.5
|
| The mentioned solution is acceptable and good |
10.8
|
12.7
|
7.3
|
| I don't know |
4.5
|
5.8
|
2.3
|
| No answer |
1.0
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
Q.11 During the current final status negotiations on Jerusalem
there are suggestions of compromised solutions including: The Palestinian
Authority will have total responsibility over religious sites, the Aqsa
and Holy Sepulchre, as well as administrative responsibilities over East
Jerusalem. The capital of Palestinian will become parts of Jerusalem neighborhoods
such as Abu Dees while postponing final resolution of the political future
of east Jerusalem to the future. What is your opinion of this suggested
solution?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| The mentioned solution is acceptable |
6.2
|
5.4
|
7.3
|
| The mentioned solution should be studied and deeply thought
of before making a viewpoint on it |
26.3
|
28.6
|
22.4
|
| The mentioned solution is unacceptable |
62.3
|
59.1
|
68.0
|
| I don't know |
3.8
|
4.9
|
2.1
|
| No answer |
1.4
|
2.0
|
0.2
|
Q.12 During the current final status negotiations on borders
and settlements are suggestion of compromised solutions including: Annexing
part of the Palestinian territory where settlements are built on to Israel-part
as final and part as temporary-and establishing a Palestinian state on
the remaining part which is between 70-80 percent of the West Bank and
Gaza Strip. What is your opinion of this suggested solution?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| The mentioned solution is acceptable as a final solution
for the issue of borders and settlements |
3.8
|
4.9
|
2.0
|
| The mentioned solution should be studied and deeply thought
of before making a viewpoint on it |
26.2
|
29.7
|
20.1
|
| The mentioned solutions is rejected as a final solution
to the issue of borders and settlements |
64.7
|
58.7
|
75.1
|
| I don't know |
4.3
|
5.5
|
2.3
|
| No answer |
1.0
|
1.2
|
0.5
|
Q.13 How much is your confidence that the Palestinian
leadership will continue to insist on its negotiation position represented
in ending the occupation over the West Bank, Gaza Strip, Jerusalem, return
of refugees and establishing an independent state. Are you very confident,
somewhat confident, somewhat unconfident, or totally unconfident that the
Palestinian leadership will hold on to its mentioned stances in the current
final status negotiations?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| Very confident that the leadership will hold on to its
mentioned stances |
20.3
|
19.4
|
21.9
|
| Somewhat confident that the leadership will hold on to
its mentioned stances |
28.3
|
27.4
|
29.7
|
| Somewhat unconfident that the leadership will hold on
to its mentioned stances |
25.3
|
24.9
|
26.0
|
| Unconfident at all that the leadership will hold on to
its mentioned stances |
20.5
|
21.0
|
19.7
|
| I don't know |
4.9
|
6.3
|
2.7
|
| No answer |
0.7
|
1.0
|
0.0
|
Q.14 There has been a lot of talk lately on the issue
of declaring a Palestinian state by 13 September 2000 which is the date
for reaching a final agreement. What is your opinion? Do you believe that
the Palestinian leadership should declare the establishment of a Palestinian
state on that date in any cas or should the declaration of establishing
a state only take place if there is an agreement with Israel or the issue
of declaraing a Palestinian state on that date is not important in your
opinion?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| There should be a declaration of a Palestinian state
this September in any case |
48.3
|
46.4
|
51.8
|
| There should be a declaration of a Palestinian state
this September only if there is an agreement with Israel |
22.3
|
27.0
|
14.2
|
| The issue of declaring a state or not on that date is
anyway not important |
21.0
|
18.9
|
24.7
|
| I don't know |
6.6
|
6.0
|
7.5
|
| No answer |
1.8
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
Q.15 Regardless of your personal opinion, do you expect
that the Palestinian leadership will declare a Palestinian state this September?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1200
|
n=762
|
n=438
|
| I expect the Palestinian leadership to declare a Palestinian
state in September |
37.8
|
35.9
|
41.1
|
| I expect the Palestinian leadership not to declare a
Palestinian state in September |
51.6
|
51.8
|
51.1
|
| I don't know / I don't have an opinion |
10.2
|
11.9
|
7.3
|
| No answer |
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
