Introduction
This report presents the main results of coordinated attitude
surveys conducted during late December 2000 by the JMCC and the Steinmetz
Center. Both surveys are based on interviews conducted with randomly selected
people who represent the adult (over age 18) Palestinian (N= 1199) and
Israeli (N=1004) populations. The Palestinian interviews were conducted
face-to-face while the Israeli respondents were interviewed by telephone.
Overall, the results reveal large differences between
the two publics with regard to their perceptions of who was responsible
for the Palestinian uprising and its impact on the peace process. The two
publics also differ sharply with respect to the nature of attitude change
that has taken place in conjunction with the uprising.
Perceptions related to the Intifada:
Seventy-six percent of the Palestinians believe that
Israel is responsible for the recent deterioration in the relations between
the two nations, whereas in the Israeli-Jewish public, 61 percent put the
blame on the Palestinians. Israeli Arabs are more similar to the Palestinians,
although they have a more balanced view: 50 percent thinks that both sides
are equally responsible and 40 percent believe that Israel is responsible.
A large majority of the Palestinians (69 percent) believe
that the Intifada has increased the readiness of Israel to come closer
to the Palestinians’ demands, against 16 percent who think that the readiness
has decreased. Among the Israelis the evaluations are in the opposite direction:
53 percent believe that the readiness of Israel has decreased, compared
with 26 percent who think that it has increased. A similar contrast appears
with regard to the beliefs about the impact of the Intifada on the chance
for a peace agreement: 53 percent of the Palestinians think that the chance
has increased compared with 31 percent who believe that it has decreased.
Among the Israelis, 55 percent thinks that the chance decreased against
19 percent who believe that it decreased.
A huge gap between the two publics also appears in regard
to the question of what is the most efficient way to reach a mutually acceptable
agreement. For the large majority of Israelis (74 percent) the best way
is through negotiations, with only 13 percent choosing confrontation, 5
percent preferring combination of both ways, and 4 percent who believe
that it is impossible to reach an agreement. Among the Palestinians, only
22 percent believe in negotiations, while the rest are divided between
those who prefer confrontations (25 percent) or combination of both (14
percent), and those who do not believe in the possibility of a peace agreement
– 36! This is perhaps one of the most significant difference between the
two publics.
Attitudes before and after the beginning of the Intifada
Within the Palestinian public, the degree of optimism
about reaching a peaceful Arab-Israeli settlement has sharply decreased
from 60 percent in December 1999 to 33 percent in December 2000, while
the rate of pessimists went up from 37 percent to 62 percent. The optimism
of the Israeli public has also declined, but more moderately: 54 percent
were optimists In December 1999 and 48 percent in December 2000. The rates
of pessimism went up from 40 percent to 48 percent. Among the Palestinians
there has been during that time a small but significant decrease in the
degree of support of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations: In December
1999, 56 percent supported this process and 38 percent opposed it. To day,
46 percent support the negotiations and 52 percent are against them. Among
the Israelis, on the other hand, the degree of support went up from 54
percent in December 1999 to 64 percent in June 2000, and has remained at
exactly the same level in December 2000.
On the issue of an independent Palestinian state, there
has been a large decrease in the percentage of Palestinians who believe
that the Oslo process will eventually result in the establishment of such
a state: In December 1999, 52 percent believed in this possibility and
44 percent didn’t. In December 2000, the comparable figures were 29 percent
and 68 percent, respectively. Among the Israelis, the percent of those
who believe in this result also went down, but much more moderately. Moreover,
in both periods, this percentage was much higher than among the Palestinians:
78 percent in December 1999 and 69 percent to day.
Finally, there have been considerable changes in the mutual
perceptions of each side. While 20.5 percent of the Israelis perceived
the Palestinians as violent in December 1999, this view went up to 46 percent
to day. An even larger change in the same direction took place among the
Palestinians: While 58 percent of them used to perceive Israelis as violent
in December 1999, 87.5 percent of the Palestinians perceived them in the
same ways in December 2000.
Methodology
A random sample of 1199 people over the age of 18 were
interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip on 21-24
December 2000. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected
homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according
to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen
randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 759 people were surveyed
from the following areas: Jenin: Jenin, Jenin refugee camp,
Kufr Ra’ee, ‘Arrabeh, Yabad, a-Zababdeh, Maythaloun, Aqaba, Sanour. Nablus:
Nablus,
Burqa, Beit Fureek, Haris, Sabastia, Balata refugee camp, Bidia, Boureen.
Tulkarem:
Tulkarem, Rameen, Qalqilia, Tulkarem refugee camp, Beit Leed, Jayyous.
Hebron: Hebron, Doura, Al-Fawwar refugee camp, Beit Ummar, a-Tafuh,
Yatta, Halhoul, al-Daharia. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Za’atara, Artas,
Beit Sahour, Beit Ta’mar, Deiheshe refugee camp. Jericho: Jericho,
Aqbet Jaber. Ramallah & al-Bireh: al-Bireh, Ramallah, Beir Zeit,
al-Mazra al-Sharqia, Kharbatha Bani Harith, al-Amari refugee camp. Jerusalem:
a-Ram, Kufr ‘Aqab, Old City, Beit Hanina, Shufat, al-I’issawia, Jabal
al-Mukaber, Silwan, Sheikh Jarrah, Sawahreh.
In the Gaza Strip, 440 people were surveyed
from: Gaza North: Jabalia refugee camp, Jabalia, Beit Lahia and
Beit Hanoun. Gaza: Sheikh Radwan, a-Darji, a-Tufah, Sabra,
a-Zeitoon, a-Nasser, a-Shujaeih, a-Rimal north and south and Shati refugee
camp, Saftawi, a-Sha’af, Sheikh ‘Ajleen. Deir al- Balah: al-bureij
refugee camp, Deir al Balah, refugee camp, al-Maghazi refugee camp. Khan
Younis: Khan younis, Khan Younis refugee camp, Bani Suheila, Absan
al-Saghira, Absan al-Kabira, al-Qarara. Rafah: Rafah, Rafah refugee
camp and Tal al-Sultan refugee camp.
The margin of error is 3 percent, with a confidence level
of 95.
51.6% of the respondents were from West
Bank, 11.7% from Jerusalem, 36.7% from the Gaza Strip.
30.5% said they live in villages, 16.7% in refugee
camps, 52.8% in towns/cities.
51.1% were male, 48.9% were female.
The average age of the respondents was 34 years.
Occupation respondents
Students 10.6% laborers 13.3%
Farmers/fishermen 2.6%
Craftsmen 1.8% Businessmen/private business 7.7%
Employees e.g. secretaries/municipal employees/teachers/nurses
19.2%
Professionals - e.g. doctors/lawyers/ pharmacists/engineers
1.5%
Housewives 34.9% unemployed + retired 7.6%
No answer 0.8%
Results
Q. 1 How optimistic or pessimistic are you about reaching
a peaceful Arab-Israel settlement? Would you say you are:
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Very optimistic |
6.7
|
6.4
|
8.1
|
1.0
|
1.3
|
0.5
|
| Optimistic |
41.4
|
41.2
|
41.5
|
31.7
|
34.5
|
26.8
|
| Pessimistic |
39.3
|
40.0
|
37.6
|
37.9
|
34.0
|
44.5
|
| Very pessimistic |
8.8
|
8.5
|
10.4
|
24.3
|
23.3
|
25.9
|
| Dont' know |
3.8
|
4.0
|
2.5
|
5.2
|
6.9
|
2.3
|
Q.2 What do you think about the Israeli-Palestinian negotiation
process, would you say strongly support it, support it, oppose it or strongly
oppose it?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
PalestinianTotal |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Strongly support |
11.9
|
10.5
|
20.9
|
2.6
|
3.6
|
0.9
|
| Support |
51.7
|
51.5
|
55.2
|
43.2
|
45.2
|
39.8
|
| Oppose |
23.7
|
24.9
|
14.8
|
32.6
|
31.8
|
34.1
|
| Strongly oppose |
10.3
|
10.7
|
6.4
|
19.2
|
16.1
|
24.5
|
| Dont' Know |
2.4
|
2.4
|
2.7
|
2.4
|
3.3
|
0.7
|
Q.3 Do you believe or not believe that the Oslo agreement
between Israel and the PLO will bring about peace between Israel and the
Palestinians in the coming years?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
PalestinianTotal |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Greatly believe |
8.0
|
7.6
|
10.8
|
3.1
|
3.6
|
2.3
|
| Somewhat believe |
35.4
|
34.6
|
41.4
|
25.6
|
25.1
|
26.6
|
| Somewhat don't believe |
28.6
|
29.2
|
24.0
|
32.1
|
33.4
|
30.3
|
| Certainly don't believe |
22.3
|
23.3
|
16.3
|
35.5
|
33.1
|
39.1
|
| Dont' know |
5.6
|
5.4
|
7.5
|
3.7
|
4.6
|
1.7
|
Q.4 In your opinion, is there a chance that the Oslo Process
will eventually result in the establishment of a genuine sovereign Palestinian
state?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Surely yes |
23.8
|
25.4
|
11.7
|
5.7
|
6.2
|
4.8
|
| Probably yes |
43.1
|
43.1
|
42.1
|
33.3
|
35.4
|
29.5
|
| Probably no |
15.9
|
16.1
|
15.3
|
18.2
|
18.2
|
18.2
|
| Surely no |
9.4
|
7.8
|
21.8
|
35.2
|
30.6
|
43.2
|
| Don't know |
7.8
|
7.6
|
9.0
|
7.6
|
9.6
|
4.3
|
Q.5 Some argue that the Two Sates for the Two People formula
is the preferable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, while others
argue that historic Palestine cannot be divided into two states and therefore
a bi-national state in which the Israelis and the Palestinians will have
equal representation in the various institutional of government regardless
of the relative size of the two populations is the most preferable one.
Which of the two solutions do you prefer?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Prefer the Two States solution |
69.0
|
69.2
|
70.5
|
47.0
|
47.0
|
46.8
|
| Prefer the bi-national solution |
18.3
|
18.1
|
18.1
|
20.3
|
21.2
|
18.6
|
| Prefer another solution |
4.7
|
5.0
|
2.3
|
15.7
|
12.5
|
21.5
|
| There is no solution to the conflict |
4.1
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
10.9
|
11.7
|
9.5
|
| Don't know |
3.9
|
3.6
|
5.2
|
6.1
|
7.6
|
3.9
|
Q.6 If the Israelis and the Palestinians sign a permanent
peace agreement based on the "Two States for the Two People" formula. From
the point of view of the Palestinians/Israelis, will such an agreement
mean the end to their historical conflict with Israel/with the Palestinians?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Surely yes |
11.2
|
9.7
|
21.9
|
3.6
|
4.7
|
1.6
|
| Probably yes |
34.9
|
34.8
|
33.4
|
21.6
|
22.8
|
19.6
|
| Probably no |
26.3
|
27.8
|
13.8
|
19.7
|
19.2
|
20.5
|
| Surely no |
20.5
|
20.9
|
22.0
|
48.3
|
44.1
|
55.7
|
| Don't know |
7.1
|
6.8
|
8.9
|
6.8
|
9.2
|
2.9
|
Q.7 Now I am going to show you a list of characteristics
that could be used to describe the Israelis (Palestinians), using the following
scale (show scale 1-5), Please indicate how you describe the Israelis (Palestinians).?
Violent
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Non-Violent |
8.9
|
3.6
|
50.2
|
1.9
|
2.8
|
0.5
|
|
6.1
|
5.2
|
13.6
|
1.6
|
2.2
|
0.5
|
| In between |
17.8
|
17.7
|
17.1
|
1.3
|
1.6
|
0.7
|
|
16.4
|
17.5
|
9.4
|
6.9
|
7.5
|
5.9
|
| Violent |
46.2
|
51.5
|
6.6
|
87.5
|
85.1
|
91.6
|
| Don't know |
4.5
|
4.6
|
3.1
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
Honest
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Dishonest |
35.1
|
38.8
|
8.5
|
70.9
|
66.5
|
78.4
|
|
11.9
|
12.7
|
4.6
|
10.9
|
13.2
|
7.0
|
| In between |
21.7
|
22.3
|
18.7
|
6.3
|
6.5
|
5.9
|
|
10.4
|
9.5
|
14.3
|
3.0
|
4.1
|
1.1
|
| Honest |
14.4
|
10.5
|
45.5
|
7.8
|
8.6
|
6.6
|
| Don't know |
6.5
|
6.2
|
8.3
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
Strong
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Weak |
19.9
|
21.1
|
11.9
|
14.9
|
15.7
|
13.6
|
|
13.2
|
13.9
|
7.8
|
8.3
|
7.1
|
10.5
|
| In between |
25.2
|
26.0
|
17.5
|
16.6
|
17.9
|
14.3
|
|
15.0
|
15.3
|
11.1
|
16.3
|
16.1
|
16.8
|
| Strong |
20.8
|
17.7
|
46.6
|
42.8
|
42.2
|
43.9
|
| Don't know |
5.9
|
6.0
|
5.1
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
Q.8 And now what about the situation of Palestinian (Israelis)
economy, would you say that it is:
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Very bad |
25.4
|
22.7
|
47.3
|
62.2
|
59.4
|
67.0
|
| Fairly bad |
33.4
|
34.2
|
27.6
|
29.1
|
30.4
|
26.8
|
| Fairly good |
34.8
|
36.6
|
19.4
|
7.5
|
8.6
|
5.7
|
| Very good |
4.1
|
4.2
|
3.7
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
| Dont' know |
2.4
|
2.4
|
1.9
|
0.5
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
Q.9 (for the Palestinians) ANd what about the future of
your economic situation with the achievement of a permanent peace will
it:
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Get better |
51.2
|
47.7
|
78.5
|
47.0
|
47.7
|
45.7
|
| Stay the same |
34.4
|
37.4
|
12.9
|
27.0
|
26.0
|
28.9
|
| Get worse |
5.6
|
5.8
|
3.1
|
13.0
|
12.6
|
13.6
|
| Don't know |
8.8
|
9.1
|
5.6
|
13.0
|
13.7
|
11.8
|
Q.10 Woule you mind an Israeli (Palestinian) to be your
friend?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| yes (go to 10-1) |
33.4
|
37.6
|
2.2
|
75.3
|
70.5
|
83.6
|
| No |
60.9
|
56.1
|
9637
|
21.8
|
26.9
|
13.0
|
| Don't know |
5.7
|
6.4
|
1.1
|
2.9
|
2.6
|
3.4
|
Q.10-1 in case a peace settlement is reached between the
Palestinians and the Israelis in the future will you keep on minding having
an Israeli to be your friend?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Yes |
69.6
|
70.3
|
8.2
|
82.1
|
77.2
|
89.1
|
| No |
13.5
|
13.5
|
5.4
|
15.5
|
19.6
|
9.5
|
| Don't know |
16.8
|
16.7
|
86.4
|
2.4
|
3.2
|
1.4
|
Q.11 Who is more responsible for the recent deterioration
in Palestinian and Israeli relation? Would you say only the Israeli side,
mosly the Israeli side, only the Palestinian side, mostly the Palestinian
side, both sides are responsible to the same degree, neither side is responsible?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Only the Palestinian side |
27.9
|
31.2
|
4.4
|
2.8
|
4.0
|
0.9
|
| Mostly the Palestinian side |
26.5
|
29.8
|
1.4
|
3.1
|
4.1
|
1.4
|
| Only the Israeli side |
6.3
|
4.0
|
25.9
|
50.5
|
46.6
|
57.0
|
| Mostly the Israeli side |
5.5
|
4.2
|
13.6
|
25.4
|
26.6
|
23.4
|
| Both sides are equally responsible to the same degree |
29.4
|
26.6
|
50.0
|
15.8
|
15.8
|
15.7
|
| Don't know |
4.3
|
4.2
|
4.7
|
2.4
|
2.9
|
1.6
|
Q.12 Which of the following ways is more efficient in
order for the Palestinians and the Israelis to be able to reach a mutually
acceptable agreement??
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Negotiations |
73.7
|
75.9
|
57.9
|
21.5
|
24.1
|
17.0
|
| Confronations |
12.8
|
13.3
|
7.7
|
25.3
|
21.3
|
32.0
|
| Combination of both |
5.1
|
3.4
|
12.0
|
13.9
|
17.1
|
8.4
|
| It is impossible to reach an agreement |
5.3
|
4.4
|
18.8
|
36.3
|
34.0
|
40.2
|
| Don't know |
3.1
|
3.0
|
3.6
|
3.0
|
3.5
|
2.4
|
Q.13 Do you believe that the Palestinian Intifada has
increased or decreased the readiness of the Israelis to come closer to
the Palestinians' demands in order to reach a peace agreement?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Increased |
28.2
|
25.8
|
48.8
|
68.8
|
71.9
|
63.4
|
| Decreased |
50.4
|
52.5
|
33.1
|
15.8
|
10.7
|
24.8
|
| Had no influence |
14.5
|
15.5
|
7.8
|
9.1
|
11.5
|
5.0
|
| Don't know |
6.9
|
6.2
|
10.3
|
6.3
|
5.9
|
6.8
|
Q.14 Looking on the consequences of the Palestinian Intifada
up to this moment, do you believe that it has increased or decreased the
chance for a peace agreement with Israel?
|
|
Israeli Total
|
Israeli Jews
|
Israeli Arab
|
Palestinian Total |
West Bank |
Gaza Strip |
|
n= 1004
|
n=503
|
n=501
|
n=1199
|
n=759
|
n=440
|
| Increased |
21.0
|
19.3
|
35.3
|
52.9
|
56.0
|
47.5
|
| Decreased |
54.5
|
55.3
|
46.8
|
31.2
|
25.0
|
41.8
|
| Had no influence |
17.3
|
18.5
|
8.9
|
8.8
|
11.5
|
4.3
|
| Don't know |
7.2
|
7.0
|
9.0
|
7.1
|
7.5
|
6.4
|
