JMCC
Public Opinion Poll No. 43
On
Palestinian Attitudes Towards Politics including the Current Intifada -
December 2001
Introduction
JMCC's
most recent poll since the eruption of the al-Aqsa Intifada, conducted
on December 6-9, 2001, showed that the majority of the Palestinian people
(71.9%) do not see the recent arrests by the PNA against the Intifada activists
as justifiable. The poll also shows that the majority of the Palestinian
people (80.1%) support the continuation of al-Aqsa Intifada; moreover,
a ratio of 54.6% support the continuation of al-Aqsa Intifada in both of
its popular and military forms and 47.2% support the continuation of al-Aqsa
Intifada to go side by side with the continuation of the negotiations.
-
The
majority of Palestinians (57.2%) believe that President Arafat is in control
of the internal situation.
-
The
majority of the Palestinian public (24.5%) trusts mostly President Arafat.
-
The
poll also showed a notable majority (71.9%) with the belief that arresting
the Intifada activists is unjustifiable.
-
Regarding
the ceasefire decision by President Arafat, a limited majority (57.6%)
believes that the decision of President Arafat on the ceasefire is unjustifiable
while 34.9% believe it is justifiable.
-
The
poll also shows that the overwhelming majority of the Palestinian public
(80.1%) supports the continuation of al-Aqsa Intifada.
-
The
results of the poll show that 20.2% only believe that the arrests are justifiable
and 34.9% believe that the ceasefire decision is justifiable; in the same
context, there was a decrease in ratio of those who believe that President
Arafat is in control of the internal situation (partially or fully) from
71.6% last June to 57.2% in December 2001.
-
Despite
the above figures, President Arafat maintained the first rank in terms
of public support; President Arafat is trusted by 24.5% while Sheikh Ahmad
Yaseen came in second place in terms of public trust but with an increase
from 10.6% last September to 12.8% in this poll.
-
The
poll showed that a majority (67.5%) supports the military operations as
a Palestinian proper response under the current conditions while 26.1%
opposed military operations, considering them harmful to the national interest.
-
A
majority of Palestinian public (64%) still support the continuation of
suicide (martyrdom) operations inside Israel compared with 68.6% in June
2001.
-
A
significant result in the poll shows that 36.6% of Palestinians believe
that the road of salvation from the current difficult conditions they are
living is through the continuation of struggle and resistance in all forms:
the Intifada and resistance; 19.4% only believe that the road of salvation
is through negotiations, political and diplomatic actions.
-
Regarding
the end result of the current Intifada, 48.8% said the ultimate goal of
the current Intifada is to end occupation on the basis of UN Security Council
resolution 242 and the establishment of the Palestinian state while 39.6%
believe that the end goal of the Intifada is to liberate all of historic
Palestine.
-
Regarding
the level of trust in the political and religious factions, support for
Fatah Movement decreased from 29.2% last September 2001 to 26.1% in this
poll while Islamic Resistance Movement "Hamas" and Islamic Jihad Movement
received a combined figure of 26.6% and 3% support the PFLP. 30.4% of the
Palestinian public does not trust any political or religious faction.
Methodology
A
random sample of 1201 people over the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face
throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip between 6,7,8,9 December 2001.
The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes, and the subjects
inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables.
The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen randomly according
to population.
In
the West Bank, , 761 people were surveyed from the following
areas: Jenin: Jenin, Jenin Refugee Camp (RC), Faqou'a , Akabeh,
Tubas and Arrabeh . Nablus: Nablus, Deir Al-hatab, Bulatah Refugee
Camp,Rujeeb, Beit Eiba and Salfeet . Tulkarem & Qalqilya: Tulkarem,
Tulkarem RC, Qalqilia, Anabta, 'alllar and Jayous . Hebron: Hebron,
Halhoul, Dura , Bani N'iem ,Adna , Tafouh, Beit-Kamel and Tarqoumia. Bethlehem:
Bethlehem, al-Doha, Za'tara , Alaza Refugee Camp RC. Jericho: Jericho
and Aqabet Jaber Refugee Camp . Ramallah & al-Bireh: al-Bireh,
Ramallah, Bitounia, Qibia and Shuqba . Jerusalem: a-Dahia, A-ram,
Shufat, Beit Hanaia, Old City, Ras al-Amoud, Qalandia RC, al-'Isawia ,
Silwan, Kufr 'Aqab, Anata, Ein Yabroud and a-Sheikh Jarah .
In
the Gaza Strip, 440 people were surveyed from: Gaza North:
Jabalia refugee camp, Jabalia, Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun. Gaza:
Sheikh Radwan, al-Nasser, a-Durj, al-Tuffah, Sabra, a-Zeitoun, a-Shajai'a,
Shati RC, al-Rimal south and al-Rimal north. Deir al- Balah: al-Nusseirat
RC, al-Maghazi RC, Deir al- Balah and al-Bureij RC. Khan Younis:
Khan Younis RC, Khan Younis, Bani Suheila, al-khuza' and al-Qararah . Rafah:
Rafah, Rafah RC and Tal al-Sultan RC . The margin of error is 3 percent,
with a confidence level of 95.
Occupation
respondents
Students
11.0% laborers 9.1% Farmers/fishermen 4.1%
Craftsmen
1.7% Businessmen/private business 6.7%
Employees
e.g. secretaries/municipal employees/teachers/nurses 20.0
Professionals
- e.g. doctors/lawyers/ pharmacists/engineers 2.0
Housewives
32.1% , unemployed 10.9% and retired 0.7% , no answer 0.6%
Results
Q.
1 In general how optimistic or pessimistic do you feel towards the future?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1201
|
N=761
|
N=440
|
| Very optimistic |
4.4
|
5.4
|
2.7
|
| Optimistic |
40.4
|
36.7
|
46.8
|
| Pessimistic |
31.1
|
32.1
|
29.3
|
| Very Pessimistic |
23.7
|
25.6
|
20.5
|
| No answer |
0.4
|
0.2
|
0.7
|
Q.
2 How optimistic or pessimistic are you towards reaching a peaceful settlement
for the Arab-Israeli conflict?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1201
|
N=761
|
N=440
|
| Very optimistic |
2.5
|
3.4
|
0.9
|
| Optimistic |
28.5
|
28.4
|
28.6
|
| Pessimistic |
37.9
|
34.4
|
43.9
|
| Very Pessimistic |
29.5
|
31.5
|
25.9
|
| No answer |
1.6
|
2.3
|
0.7
|
Q.3
In principle, do you strongly support , Somewhat Support, somewhat oppose,
or Strongly oppose peace negotiations between Palestinians and Israelis?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Strongly support |
9.3
|
10.8
|
6.8
|
| Somewhat support |
39.4
|
36.9
|
43.6
|
| Somewhat oppose |
21.0
|
19.1
|
24.3
|
| Strongly oppose |
27.6
|
29.4
|
24.3
|
| No answer |
2.7
|
3.8
|
1.0
|
Q.4
What do you think of the Oslo agreement? Would you say you strongly support,
support, oppose or strongly oppose it?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 12.1
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Strongly support |
4.4
|
5.0
|
3.4
|
| Support |
26.6
|
25.0
|
29.3
|
| Oppose |
32.5
|
28.3
|
39.8
|
| Strongly oppose |
29.6
|
33.4
|
23.2
|
| No answer |
6.9
|
8.3
|
4.3
|
Q.5
Some say that the ideal way to achieve Palestinian national goals is through
negotiations, others say through armed struggle, what is the opinion closer
to your viewpoint?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Negotiations |
22.8
|
26.3
|
16.8
|
| Armed struggle |
37.8
|
36.5
|
40.0
|
| Negotiations and armed struggle |
36.6
|
33.1
|
42.5
|
| No answer |
2.8
|
4.1
|
0.7
|
Q.6
Under the current conditions, some believe that the peace process is dead
and there is no chance of resuming the negotiations, while others see that
the peace process is passing through difficult conditions with an unclear
future and there is another group who believes that the peace process is
still alive and there is a possibility of resuming negotiations?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| The peace process is dead and there is no chance of resuming
the negotiations |
35.7
|
36.7
|
34.1
|
| The peace process is passing through difficult conditions
with an unclear future |
46.5
|
44.5
|
49.8
|
| The peace process is still alive and there is a possibility
of resuming negotiations |
14.8
|
14.8
|
14.8
|
| Others |
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.9
|
| Don't know |
2.4
|
3.5
|
0.4
|
| No answer |
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.0
|
Q.7
Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly
oppose the continuation of the al-Aqsa Intifada in the West Bank and Gaza
Strip?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Strongly support |
43.4
|
41.8
|
46.1
|
| Somewhat support |
36.7
|
34.6
|
40.5
|
| Strongly oppose |
11.7
|
12.7
|
9.8
|
| Somewhat oppose |
5.4
|
7.0
|
2.7
|
| No answer |
2.8
|
3.9
|
0.9
|
Q.8
There is a discussion within the Palestinian society on the benefit of
continuing the Intifada, what is your opinion? Should the Intifada continue
in its current form, should it continue but in other forms or should it
the intifada stop?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| The intifada should continue in its current form |
26.0
|
25.1
|
27.7
|
| The Intifada should stop |
34.3
|
35.2
|
32.7
|
| By reactivate the popular characteristic of the Intifada* |
9.1
|
9.1
|
9.1
|
| By reinforce national unity and straighten up and organize
the Intifada* |
4.7
|
4.5
|
5.0
|
| By getting the support and solidarity from the Arab world* |
9.2
|
9.9
|
8.0
|
| The Intifada should continue in other Forms* |
14.4
|
12.8
|
17.3
|
| No answer |
2.3
|
3.4
|
0.2
|
* These answers were not included as part of the options
read to the interviews.
Q.9
Some believe that the Intifada is the best path to achieve our national
goals and end the occupation, others believe that the negotiations are
the best way to do so. There are some who believe that the continuation
of the Intifada and the negotiations together is the method to achieve
Palestinian national goals, so in your perspective what is the best way
to achieve our national goals?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Only the Intifada |
34.8
|
36.3
|
32.3
|
| Only negotiations |
13.9
|
15.8
|
10.7
|
| Intifada and negotiations together |
47.2
|
42.4
|
55.5
|
| I don't know |
2.9
|
3.8
|
1.4
|
| No answer |
1.2
|
1.7
|
0.1
|
Q.10
The current Intifada includes popular characteristics such as the demonstrations
and military characteristics in your opinion, do you support the continuation
of a popular or military Intifada or both of them together?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1202
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| I am with the continuation of a popular resistance Intifada |
20.6
|
25.8
|
11.6
|
| I am with the military resistance Intifada |
15.8
|
17.2
|
13.4
|
| I am with both of them |
54.6
|
46.6
|
68.4
|
| I don't know |
6.4
|
8.3
|
3.2
|
| No answer |
0.7
|
2.1
|
3.4
|
Q.11
Do you support the resumption of the military operations against Israeli
targets as a suitable response within the current political conditions,
or do you reject it and find it harmful to Palestinian national interests?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1202
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| A suitable response within the current political conditions |
67.5
|
61.5
|
78.0
|
| I reject it and find it harmful to Palestinian national
interests |
26.1
|
29.3
|
20.5
|
| I don't know |
5.7
|
8.4
|
0.9
|
| No answer |
0.7
|
0.8
|
0.6
|
Q.12
Are you with the resumption of the military operations only inside Israel,
only inside the occupied territories or inside Israel and the occupied
territories?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Inside Israel only |
30.8
|
30.2
|
31.8
|
| Inside the occupied territories only |
7.1
|
7.8
|
5.9
|
| Inside Israel and the occupied territories |
36.6
|
31.3
|
45.9
|
| I am not with the resumption of the military operations |
20.5
|
23.9
|
14.5
|
| No answer |
5.0
|
6.8
|
1.9
|
Q.13
What is your feeling towards suicide bombing operations against Israeli
civilians, do you support it or oppose it?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Strongly support |
43.5
|
39.0
|
51.4
|
| Somewhat support |
20.58
|
18.9
|
23.2
|
| Strongly oppose |
10.5
|
12.5
|
7.0
|
| Somewhat oppose |
15.5
|
15.8
|
15.0
|
| I don't know |
7.5
|
10.2
|
2.7
|
| No answer |
2.5
|
3.6
|
0.7
|
Q.14
In your opinion, what should be the end result of the current Intifada,
is it improving the negotiation conditions for Palestinians, ending occupation
based on UN Resolution 242 and the establishment of the Palestinian state
or liberating all of historic Palestine?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Improve negotiation conditions for Palestinians |
8.7
|
10.4
|
5.9
|
| Ending occupation on basis of UN Resolution 242 and establishing
the Palestinian State |
48.8
|
48.4
|
49.5
|
| Liberating all of historic Palestine |
39.6
|
37.7
|
42.7
|
| Other |
0.7
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
| I don't know |
1.7
|
2.5
|
0.5
|
| No answer |
0.5
|
0.3
|
0.7
|
Q.15
After more than one year of the Intifada are you very optimistic, somewhat
optimistic, somewhat pessimistic or very pessimistic towards achieving
its objective that you chose in the previous question:
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Very optimistic |
6.1
|
5.4
|
7.3
|
| Somewhat optimistic |
41.3
|
35.9
|
50.7
|
| Somewhat pessimistic |
31.1
|
31.5
|
30.2
|
| Very pessimistic |
18.5
|
22.9
|
10.9
|
| No answer |
3.0
|
4.3
|
0.9
|
Q.16
Some belive that a two-state formula is the favored solution for the Arab-Israeli
conflict, while others believe that historic Palestine cannot be
divided and thus the favored solution is a bi-national state on all of
Palestine wherein Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal representation
and rights. Which of these solution do you prefer?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Two-state solution: an Israeli and a Palestinian |
48.8
|
52.3
|
42.7
|
| Bi-national state on all of historic Palestine |
27.6
|
25.5
|
31.1
|
| Palestinian State* |
14.4
|
11.0
|
20.2
|
| Islamic State* |
3.2
|
3.4
|
3.0
|
| Other |
1.2
|
1.4
|
0.9
|
| Do not know |
3.9
|
5.4
|
1.4
|
| No answer |
0.9
|
1.0
|
0.7
|
* These answers were not included as part of the options
read to the interviews
Q.17
In general, how do you evaluate the performance of the Palestinian Authority?
Very good, good, bad or very bad?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Very good |
6.8
|
7.2
|
6.1
|
| Good |
38.1
|
37.6
|
38.9
|
| Bad |
27.0
|
26.3
|
28.2
|
| Very bad |
24.3
|
22.9
|
26.8
|
| No answer |
3.8
|
6.0
|
0.0
|
Q.18
The Palestinian Authority is recently detaining some Palestinian activists,
what is your opinion: is this measure justified, or is it unjustified?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Justified |
20.2
|
19.6
|
21.4
|
| Unjustified |
71.9
|
69.9
|
75.2
|
| No answer |
7.9
|
10.5
|
3.4
|
Q.19
There is a debate among international circles as to whether the Palestinian
president is in control of the internal Palestinian situation, in control
up to a certain degree, not in control up to a certain degree, or whether
he is not in control at all, what is your opinion?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| President Yasser Arafat is totally in control of the
internal Palestinian situation |
16.2
|
15.2
|
18.0
|
| President Yasser Arafat is in control to a certain degree |
41.0
|
40.2
|
42.5
|
| President Yasser Arafat is not in control to a certain
degree |
22.9
|
20.4
|
27.3
|
| President Yasser Arafat is not in control at all |
15.2
|
17.2
|
11.8
|
| No answer |
4.7
|
7.0
|
0.4
|
Q.20
Palestinian President Yasser Arafat calls for a cease-fire. There are those
who believe that this decision is justified in the current circumstances
and others who believe that this decision is unjustified in the current
circumstances, what is your opinion?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Cease-fire is justified in the current circumstances |
34.9
|
34.7
|
35.2
|
| Cease-fire is unjustified in the current circumstances |
57.6
|
55.1
|
62.0
|
| No opinion/ no answer |
7.5
|
10.2
|
2.8
|
Q.21
Do you believe that US envoy Zinni will succeed in his mission of a cease-fire
and return Palestinians and Israelis to the negotiating table?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Yes |
16.6
|
15.5
|
18.4
|
| No |
73.7
|
72.7
|
75.5
|
| No answer |
9.7
|
11.8
|
6.1
|
Q.
22 What in your opinion is the road of salvation to the Palestinian people
from the difficult conditions they live in?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Continuing struggle and resistance in all forms: Intifada
and resistance |
36.6
|
34.6
|
40.2
|
| Negotiations, political and diplomatic work |
19.4
|
17.2
|
23.2
|
| National unity, self dependence, internal reform |
6.4
|
6.0
|
7.0
|
| Return to religion and seeking help from God (Islam is
the solution) |
4.1
|
4.9
|
2.7
|
| Arab solidarity and support |
3.7
|
3.9
|
3.4
|
| Continuing struggle and resistance in all forms: Intifada
and resistance with Negotiations, political and diplomatic work |
3.5
|
3.3
|
3.9
|
| International support , referring to international legitimacy
and support |
1.7
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
| Other |
17.7
|
18.8
|
15.7
|
| I don't know |
5.5
|
7.8
|
1.6
|
| No answer |
1.4
|
1.8
|
0.5
|
* The above question was open ended question.
Q.
23 Which Palestinian personality do you trust the most?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Yasser Arafat |
24.5
|
22.2
|
28.4
|
| Ahmed Yassin |
12.8
|
9.1
|
19.3
|
| Marwan Barghouthi |
2.7
|
2.2
|
3.6
|
| Sa'eb Erekat |
2.5
|
3.0
|
1.6
|
| Haidar Abdul Shafi |
1.9
|
1.3
|
3.0
|
| Abdul Aziz Rantisi |
1.8
|
1.4
|
2.5
|
| Hanan Ashrawi |
1.7
|
2.2
|
0.7
|
| Ahmad Abdul Rahman |
1.1
|
1.4
|
0.5
|
| Others |
10.5
|
10.0
|
11.4
|
| I don't trust anyone |
33.1
|
37.8
|
24.8
|
| No answer |
7.4
|
94
|
4.2
|
* The above question was open ended question.
Q.
24 Which Palestinian political or religious faction do you trust most?
| |
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
n= 1201
|
n=761
|
n=440
|
| Fateh |
26.1
|
23.3
|
30.9
|
| Hamas |
21.3
|
16.7
|
29.4
|
| Islamic Jihad |
5.3
|
4.7
|
6.4
|
| PFLP |
3.0
|
2.5
|
3.9
|
| Other Islamic Faction |
2.2
|
2.1
|
2.5
|
| Other PLO Factions |
1.9
|
2.5
|
0.9
|
| Other Factions |
1.0
|
1.3
|
0.5
|
| I don't trust anyone |
30.4
|
35.1
|
22.3
|
| No answer |
8.8
|
11.8
|
3.3
|
* The above question was open ended question.
|
