JMCC Public Opinion Poll
No. 44
On Palestinian Attitudes Towards
the Palestinian situation in general - March 2002
Introduction
-
The Jerusalem Media and Communication
Center (JMCC) conducted its most recent public opinion poll to study the
Palestinian public attitudes towards a number of crucial and sensitive
political topics in current affairs such as the Palestinian-Israeli peace
process and al-Aqsa Intifadah. The survey was conducted in all Palestinian
territory on 20-23 March 2002 except Bethlehem where the survey was conducted
on 28-29 March 2002 due to the Israeli military closure and siege of the
district.
The most significant results
of the survey could be summarized as follows:
Support for the Palestinian-Israeli
peace process is 46.6 percent, while support for the Oslo agreements is
31.6 percent.
The majority of Palestinians, 72.4
percent, do not believe that signing a permanent Palestinian-Israeli peace
agreement based on “two states for two peoples” means, from a Palestinian
viewpoint, an end to the historical Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Of those interviewed, 41.6 percent,
believe that the most favored solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict
is a two-state solution, while 31.6 percent believe that historic Palestine
cannot be divided into two states and that a bi-national state in all of
historic Palestine, where Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal representation
and rights, is the most favored solution. Meanwhile, 12.5 percent believe
that a Palestinian state on the whole historic Palestine, with the return
of refugees, is the favored solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
There are 29.4 percent who believe
that the peace process is dead and negotiations cannot be resumed, while
49.7 percent believe that the peace process is passing through difficult
times with an unknown future. Of those interviewed, 18.5 percent believe
that United States envoy Anthony Zinni will succeed in his mission of a
cease-fire and return of Palestinians and Israelis to the negotiation table.
The majority of Palestinians, 83.9
percent, support the continuation of al-Aqsa Intifada in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip, while 67.5 percent believe that the Palestinian Intifadah
has increased Israeli readiness to come closer to Palestinian demands to
achieve a peace agreement. Forty nine percent believe that the Palestinian
Intifadah to this moment has increased chances of a peace agreement with
Israel.
Of those surveyed, 48.1 percent
believe that the final goal of the current Intifadah is ending the Israeli
military occupation based on UN Security Council resolution 242 and the
establishment of the state of Palestine, while 43.9 percent believe the
final goal to be liberated all of Palestinian soil: historic Palestine.
Palestinians who support the continuation
of popular and military aspects of the Intifadah are 66.3 percent. Also,
73.6 percent support the continuation of military operations against Israeli
targets as a suitable response to the current political situation, and
72 percent support suicide bombing operations against Israeli civilians.
There are 58.9 percent of those
interviewed who believe Palestinian Authority performance is between good
and very good, while 20.6 percent believe Palestinian President Yasser
Arafat is in full control of internal affairs and 44.7 percent believe
that Arafat is in control of internal affairs to some extent.
Popular trust of Palestinian personalities
is 27.9 percent for Yasser Arafat, 9.7 percent trust Ahmed Yassin and 32.1
percent do not trust anyone. As for political factions, 29.5 percent trust
Fateh, 19.8 percent trust Hamas and 29.6 percent do not anyone.
Methodology
A random sample of 1160 people over
the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and
Gaza Strip between 23, 24 March 2001. The interviews were conducted in
randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected
randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60
sampling points chosen randomly according to population.
In the West Bank: Jenin: Jenin,
Jenin Refugee Camp (RC), Kufr Ra’ee, Arabeh, Zababdeh, Akabeh, Sarees,
al-Jadaydeh, Sylet al-Harthieh and T’enek. Nablus: Nablus, Deir Sharaf,
Beit Iba, Askar RC, Roujeeb, Arabeh and Boureen. Tulkarem: Tulkarem, Illar,
Ateel, Tulkarem RC. Qalqilya: Qalqilya, Azoun. Hebron: Hebron, Halhoul,
Sa’eer, Doura, Al-Aroub RC, Beit Ulla, Yatta and Tarqoumia. Bethlehem:
Bethlehem, Beit Jala, Bateer, Hussan, Za’atra, Al-Azeh RC. Jericho: Jericho,
Ein al-Sultan RC. Ramallah and Jerusalem: Al-Bireh, Ramallah, Jifna, Jalzon
RC, Qabia, Beit Rima, Bido, al-Izrieh, Abu Deis, Shufat, Beit Hanina, Shufat
RC, Jabal al-Mukaber, Sur Baher, Old City, Wadi al-Joz, al-Isswieh, Sheikh
Jarrah, Ras al-Amoud and Silwan.
In the Gaza Strip: North Gaza: Jabalia
RC, Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun. Gaza City: Sheikh Radwan, al-Darj,
al-Tufah, Sabra, Tal al-Hawa, al-Naser, al-Zaytoun, al-Shaja’ieh, al-Rimal
north and south, Shati RC. Deir al-Balah: Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat RC. Khan
Younis: Khan Younis, Khan Younis RC, Bani Sahila, Abssan al-Kabeera, Khuza’a,
Qayzaran and al-Najjar. Rafah: Rafah, Rafah RC, Tal al-Sultan RC.
The margin of error is 3 percent,
with a confidence level of 95.
Occupation
respondents
Students 9.9% laborers
9.3% Farmers/fishermen 4.8%
Craftsmen 1.6% Businessmen/private
business 5.9%
Employees e.g. secretaries/municipal
employees/teachers/nurses 18.0%
Professionals - e.g. doctors/lawyers/
pharmacists/engineers 1.7%
Housewives 45.1%, unemployed 9.3%
and retired 1.7%, self employee 2.8%, No answer 0.8%.
Results
Q. 1 In general how optimistic or
pessimistic do you feel towards the future?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very optimistic |
6.0
|
5.3
|
7.3
|
| Optimistic |
42.3
|
43.3
|
40.7
|
| Pessimistic |
34.0
|
35.3
|
31.8
|
| Very Pessimistic |
17.4
|
16.1
|
19.5
|
| No answer |
0.3
|
-
|
0.7
|
Q. 2 How optimistic or pessimistic
are you towards the recent peace process between the Palestinians and the
Israelis? Do you Strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or
strongly oppose?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
6.5
|
0.7
|
7.3
|
| Somewhat support |
40.1
|
39.4
|
41.1
|
| Somewhat oppose |
28.8
|
30.8
|
25.5
|
| Strongly oppose |
22.4
|
21.0
|
24.8
|
| No answer |
2.2
|
2.8
|
1.4
|
Q.3 In principle, do you strongly
support, Somewhat Support, somewhat oppose, or Strongly oppose peace negotiations
between Palestinians and Israelis?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
7.8
|
6.3
|
10.2
|
| Somewhat support |
42.1
|
41.8
|
42.5
|
| Somewhat oppose |
27.1
|
29.2
|
23.6
|
| Strongly oppose |
21.6
|
20.8
|
22.7
|
| No answer |
1.6
|
1.9
|
0.9
|
4. What do you think of the Oslo
agreement? Would you say you strongly support, support, oppose or strongly
oppose it?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
2.9
|
2.4
|
3.9
|
| Somewhat support |
28.7
|
26.7
|
32.0
|
| Somewhat oppose |
34.0
|
36.7
|
29.5
|
| Strongly oppose |
26.5
|
25.1
|
28.6
|
| No answer |
7.9
|
9.2
|
5.9
|
5. How optimistic or pessimistic are you towards reaching a peaceful
settlement for the Arab-Israeli conflict?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very optimistic |
1.3
|
1.5
|
0.9
|
| Optimistic |
31.5
|
31.4
|
31.6
|
| Pessimistic |
42.8
|
40.4
|
46.6
|
| Very pessimistic |
21.9
|
23.3
|
19.5
|
| No answer |
2.6
|
3.3
|
1.4
|
6. If the Israelis and the Palestinians did sign a permanent peace
agreement on the basis of “Two states for two peoples”, from a Palestinian
point of view, does it mean to end the Palestinian-Israeli historic conflict?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Of course yes |
5.7
|
3.6
|
9.1
|
| Possibly yes |
16.7
|
16.5
|
17.0
|
| Possibly no |
18.7
|
18.8
|
18.6
|
| Of course no |
53.7
|
53.5
|
54.1
|
| I don't know |
4.7
|
6.8
|
1.1
|
| No answer |
0.5
|
0.8
|
-
|
7. Some believe that a two-state formula is the
favored solution for the Arab-Israeli conflict, while others believe
that historic Palestine cannot be divided and thus the favored solution
is a bi-national state on all of Palestine wherein Palestinians and Israelis
enjoy equal representation and rights. Which of these solutions do you
prefer?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| 1. Two state solution: an Israeli and a Palestinian |
41.6
|
36.8
|
49.5
|
| 2. Bi-national state on all of historic Palestine |
31.6
|
32.6
|
30.0
|
| 3.Palestinian state |
0.2
|
0.3
|
-
|
| 4. Islamic state |
3.4
|
3.9
|
2.7
|
| 5. Sovereign, Independent Palestinian with Jerusalem
as it’s capital |
5.7
|
5.0
|
6.8
|
| 6. Palestinian state on all of historic Palestine and
return of refugees |
12.5
|
14.6
|
9.1
|
| 7. There is no solution |
0.1
|
-
|
0.2
|
| 8. I don't know |
3.9
|
4.8
|
0.7
|
| 9. No answer |
0.9
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
8. Under the current conditions, some believe that the peace process
is dead and there is no chance of resuming the negotiations, while others
see that the peace process is passing through difficult conditions with
an unclear future and there is another group who believes that the peace
process is still alive and there is a possibility of resuming negotiations?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| 1. The peace process is dead and there is no chance of
resuming the negotiations |
29.4
|
31.9
|
25.2
|
| 2. The peace process is passing through difficult conditions
with an unclear future |
49.7
|
48.6
|
51.4
|
| 3. The peace process is still alive and there is a possibility
of resuming negotiations |
16.6
|
14.3
|
20.5
|
| 4. Impossible to reach a peace with the Jews |
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
| 5. The Jews do not want peace |
0.3
|
0.3
|
0.2
|
| 6. The peace process was born dead |
0.4
|
0.1
|
0.9
|
| 7. Negotiations are a waste of time |
0.2
|
0.3
|
-
|
| 8. Negotiations based on right principles |
0.1
|
0.1
|
-
|
| 9. I don't know |
2.6
|
3.6
|
0.9
|
| 10. No answer |
0.4
|
0.3
|
0.7
|
9. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly
oppose the continuation of the al-Aqsa Intifada in the West Bank and Gaza
Strip?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
48.0
|
43.3
|
55.7
|
| Somewhat support |
35.9
|
38.8
|
31.4
|
| Somewhat oppose |
9.4
|
9.2
|
9.8
|
| Strongly oppose |
4.2
|
4.9
|
3.2
|
| No answer |
2.4
|
3.9
|
-
|
10. Some believe that the Intifada is the best path to achieve our national
goals and end the occupation, others believe that the negotiations are
the best way to do so. There are some who believe that the continuation
of the Intifada and the negotiations together is the method to achieve
Palestinian national goals, so in your perspective what is the best way
to achieve our national goals?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Only Intifada |
32.3
|
33.6
|
30.2
|
| Only negotiations |
10.9
|
11.7
|
9.8
|
| Intifada and negotiations together |
45.5
|
51.8
|
58.9
|
| I don't know |
1.4
|
1.8
|
0.7
|
| No answer |
0.9
|
1.1
|
0.5
|
11. Do you think that the Palestinian Intifada increase or decrease
the Israelis ability to understand the Palestinians demands in order to
reach a peace agreement?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Increase |
67.5
|
66.1
|
69.8
|
| Decrease |
17.7
|
16.7
|
19.3
|
| It has no affect |
7.1
|
6.9
|
7.3
|
| I don't know |
6.1
|
8.5
|
2.3
|
| No answer |
1.7
|
1.8
|
1.4
|
12. If we review the Palestinian Intifada until this moment, do you
think the chance of a peace agreement with Israel increase or decrease?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Incease |
49.0
|
44.3
|
56.6
|
| Decrease |
32.5
|
34.4
|
29.3
|
| It has no affect |
7.6
|
7.5
|
7.7
|
| I don't know |
8.8
|
11.1
|
5.0
|
| No answer |
2.2
|
2.6
|
1.4
|
13. In your opinion, what should be the end result of the current Intifada,
is it improving the conditions of negotiations for Palestinians, ending
occupation based on UN Resolution 242 and the establishment of the Palestinian
state or liberation of all historic Palestine?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| 1. Improving the conditions of negotiations for Palestinians |
6.6
|
7.5
|
5.2
|
| 2. Ending occupation based on UN Resolution 242 and the
establishment of the Palestinian state |
48.1
|
44.6
|
53.9
|
| 3. Liberating of all historic Palestine |
43.9
|
46.7
|
39.3
|
| 4. Others |
0.2
|
-
|
0.4
|
| 5. I don’t know |
0.9
|
0.8
|
0.9
|
| 6. No answer |
0.3
|
0.4
|
0.2
|
14. After more than one year of the Intifada are you very optimistic,
somewhat optimistic, somewhat pessimistic or very pessimistic towards achieving
its objective that you chose in the previous question:
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very optimistic |
14.7
|
11.3
|
20.2
|
| Somewhat optimistic |
50.3
|
52.1
|
47.5
|
| Somewhat pessimistic |
21.8
|
21.1
|
23.0
|
| Very pessimistic |
10.3
|
11.9
|
7.7
|
| No answer |
2.8
|
3.6
|
1.6
|
15. The current Intifada includes popular characteristics such as the
demonstrations and military
characteristics in your opinion, do you support the continuation of
a popular or military Intifada or both of them together?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| 1. I am with the continuation of a popular resistance
Intifada |
13.0
|
13.5
|
12.3
|
| 2. I am with the continuation of a military resistance
Intifada |
15.0
|
17.8
|
10.5
|
| 3. I am with the continuation of a popular and military
Intifada |
66.3
|
61.9
|
73.4
|
| 4. I don’t know |
4.0
|
4.9
|
2.5
|
| 5. No answer |
1.7
|
1.9
|
1.4
|
16. Do you support the resumption of the military operations against
Israeli targets as a suitable
response within the current political conditions, or do you reject
it and find it harmful to Palestinian national interests?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| 1. A suitable response within the current political conditions |
73.6
|
71.3
|
77.5
|
| 2. I reject it and find it harmful to Palestinian national
interests |
20.0
|
20.4
|
19.3
|
| 3. Others |
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
| 4. I don’t know |
4.4
|
5.6
|
2.5
|
| 5. No answer |
1.8
|
2.6
|
0.5
|
17. Are you with the resumption of the military operations only inside
Israel, only inside the occupied territories or inside Israel and the occupied
territories?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| 1. Inside Israel only |
20.4
|
25.8
|
11.6
|
| 2. Only inside the occupied territories |
9.3
|
9.7
|
8.6
|
| 3. Inside Israel and the occupied territories |
49.1
|
40.0
|
64.1
|
| 4. I am not with the resumption of the military operations |
15.9
|
16.7
|
14.5
|
| 5. No answer |
5.3
|
7.8
|
1.1
|
18. What is your feeling towards suicide bombing operations against
Israeli civilians, do you support it or oppose it?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Strongly support |
49.2
|
45.0
|
56.1
|
| Somewhat support |
22.8
|
25.1
|
18.9
|
| Somewhat oppose |
14.7
|
14.0
|
15.9
|
| Strongly oppose |
7.0
|
6.5
|
7.7
|
| I don't know/No opinion |
4.3
|
6.1
|
1.4
|
| No answer |
2.0
|
3.2
|
-
|
19. Are you satisfied of the Arab solidarity with the Intifada, do you
say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat unsatisfied or
not satisfied at all?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very satisfied |
0.9
|
1.0
|
0.9
|
| Somewhat satisfied |
14.4
|
14.2
|
14.8
|
| Somewhat unsatisfied |
23.5
|
21.4
|
27.0
|
| Not satisfied at all |
60.5
|
62.5
|
57.3
|
| I don't know |
0.3
|
0.3
|
-
|
| No answer |
0.3
|
0.4
|
-
|
20. Do you believe that US envoy Zinni will succeed in his mission of
a cease-fire and return Palestinians and Israelis to the negotiating table?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Yes |
18.5
|
16.9
|
21.1
|
| No |
74.5
|
76.0
|
72.0
|
| No answer |
7.0
|
7.1
|
6.8
|
21. In general, how do you evaluate the performance of the Palestinian
Authority? Very good, good, bad or very bad?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Very good |
7.3
|
7.6
|
6.8
|
| Good |
51.6
|
51.4
|
52.0
|
| Bad |
24.7
|
24.4
|
25.0
|
| Very bad |
10.3
|
9.4
|
11.6
|
| No answer |
6.1
|
7.1
|
4.5
|
22. There is a debate among international circles as to whether the
Palestinian president is in control of the internal Palestinian situation,
in control up to a certain degree, not in control up to a certain degree,
or whether he is not in control at all, what is your opinion?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| 1. President Yasser Arafat is totally in control of the
internal Palestinian situation |
20.6
|
18.5
|
24.1
|
| 2. President Yasser Arafat is in control up to a certain
degree |
44.7
|
44.9
|
44.5
|
| 3. President Yasser Arafat is not in control up to a
certain degree |
19.6
|
20.3
|
18.4
|
| 4. President Yasser Arafat is not in control at all |
11.3
|
11.4
|
11.1
|
| 5. No answer |
3.8
|
5.0
|
1.8
|
23. Which Palestinian personality do you trust the most?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| 1. Yasser Arafat |
27.9
|
25.0
|
32.7
|
| 2. Ahmad Yassin |
9.7
|
7.8
|
13.0
|
| 3. Marwan Barghouthi |
2.8
|
2.4
|
3.6
|
| 4. Abdul Aziz al-Rantisi |
2.6
|
2.4
|
3.0
|
| 5. Haidar Abdul Shafi |
2.5
|
1.8
|
3.6
|
| 6. Saeb Erekat |
2.0
|
1.7
|
3.6
|
| 7.Others |
15.5
|
12.4
|
17.2
|
| 8. Do not trust anyone |
32.1
|
37.1
|
23.9
|
| 9. No answer |
4.9
|
4.6
|
5.3
|
* The above question was open ended question
24. Which Palestinian political or religious faction do you trust most?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| 1. Fateh |
29.5
|
26.0
|
35.2
|
| 2. Hamas |
19.8
|
18.5
|
22.0
|
| 3. Popular Front for liberation of Palestine |
3.9
|
4.0
|
3.6
|
| 4. Islamic Jihad |
3.7
|
4.0
|
3.2
|
| 5. Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades |
1.9
|
1.1
|
3.2
|
| 6. Others |
5.3
|
5.3
|
5.5
|
| 7. Do not trust anyone |
29.6
|
34.0
|
22.3
|
| 8. No answer |
6.3
|
6.9
|
5.2
|
* The above question was open ended question
25. From your point of view, the following Israeli violations
from the most harmful to the less harmful to Palestinian people?
|
|
One
|
Two
|
Three
|
Four
|
Five
|
Six
|
| 1. Closure and checkpoints |
28.0
|
17.2
|
15.6
|
14.7
|
12.4
|
10.9
|
| 2. Assassinations |
34.5
|
25.9
|
16.2
|
12.6
|
7.3
|
3.1
|
| 3.Incursion of PA areas |
14.8
|
16.4
|
17.1
|
15.9
|
23.0
|
11.7
|
| 4. Settlers attacks |
2.4
|
7.4
|
8.8
|
15.2
|
20.7
|
43.9
|
| 5. Killings |
9.9
|
17.6
|
33.4
|
21.3
|
17.4
|
10.5
|
| 6. Shelling |
10.2
|
15.1
|
19.2
|
19.2
|
17.5
|
17.5
|
| 7. No answer |
0.2
|
0.5
|
0.7
|
0.7
|
1.6
|
2.3
|
26. Martial status?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Single |
25.9
|
24.3
|
28.4
|
| Married |
69.8
|
72.1
|
66.1
|
| Divorced |
1.4
|
1.0
|
2.0
|
| Widowed |
2.6
|
2.1
|
3.4
|
| No answer |
0.3
|
0.6
|
-
|
27. Occupation?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Worker |
9.3
|
11.0
|
6.6
|
| Employee |
18.0
|
17.2
|
19.3
|
| Housewife |
34.1
|
36.0
|
30.9
|
| Student |
9.9
|
8.3
|
12.5
|
| Farmer |
4.8
|
5.7
|
3.4
|
| Businessman |
5.9
|
6.5
|
4.8
|
| Professional (physician..etc) |
1.7
|
1.7
|
1.7
|
| Craftsman (Electrician...etc) |
1.6
|
1.6
|
1.6
|
| Unemployment |
9.3
|
9.3
|
9.3
|
| Retired |
1.7
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
| Self Employee |
2.8
|
2.5
|
3.4
|
| No answer |
0.8
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
28. Are you refugee or non-refugee?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Refugee |
44.9
|
34.2
|
62.5
|
| Non-refugee |
54.5
|
64.9
|
37.5
|
| No answer |
0.6
|
1.0
|
-
|
29. Sex?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| Male |
50.8
|
50.3
|
50.6
|
| Female |
48.9
|
49.2
|
48.4
|
| No answer |
0.4
|
0.5
|
-
|
|
