Significant Opinion results
-- Most Palestinians say they will re-elect Yasser Arafat in up-coming
presidential elections. He remains most trusted figure.
-- Most Palestinians who believe in the urgency of reform do not think
that changing people is the path for reform. Elections was considered best
method to achieve reform.
-- Recent Israeli incursions further radicalized Palestinian public
opinion increasing support for Arafat, Fateh and Hamas and depreciating
support for Palestinian Authority agencies and negotiations.
-- More Palestinians consider goal of Intifadah is to liberate historic
Palestine, not ending Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Following is a summary of survey results:
Effects of Israeli incursion policy on Palestinian public opinion
* The recent Israeli incursion policy influenced Palestinian public
opinion on various levels. The Israeli incursions caused an increase in
support for Palestinian President Yasser Arafat, Fateh Movement and Hamas
Movement, while causing a decrease in support for the Palestinian Authority,
security agencies and negotiations.
In answering a question on how did the incursion raids influence your
position of the following,
38.4 percent said it increased their support of President Arafat as
opposed to 34.2 percent who said their support of Arafat decreased.
42.7 percent increased their support of Fateh, while 26 percent decreased
their support.
58.9 percent increased their support of Hamas, while 13.1 percent decreased
their support.
65.6 percent increased their support to suicide operations, while 14.8
percent decreased their support.
16 percent increased their support for the Palestinian Authority, while
49.1 percent decreased their support.
16.7 percent increased their support of the security agencies, while
52.2 decreased their support.
12.3 percent increased their support of negotiations with Israeli,
while 60.6 percent decreased their support.
* Those interviewed were divided on their opinions towards the performance
of Palestinian Authority institutions during the incursions wherein 44.5
percent considered that within the limited capabilities it was not possible
for the institutions to work better, while 43.3 percent considered the
performance of these institutions during the incursion disappointing. Only
6.4 percent considered the performance at its best.
There was a more positive evaluation of Arafat's performance during
the incursion when 27.7 percent said his performance was good and 14.4
percent said it was bad. Meanwhile, 26 percent said Arafat's performance
was medium (in between).
Public opinion on reform
* The survey showed that the majority of the Palestinian people, 57.6
percent, believe the time is ripe for conducting reform within the Palestinian
Authority while 26.8 percent believe that the time is unsuitable for reform.
Of those interviewed, 47.2 percent of those who do not see the timing for
reform as appropriate justified it with the current conflict with Israel,
while 25 percent of those who do not see reform as appropriate said that
Palestinians are not ready for reform while only 24.1 percent said they
fear the reform would not be genuine.
Most of those who believe it is high time for reform, 41.7 percent,
see elections as the best method to achieve reform, while 29.1 percent
considered that reform should be done through improving laws and regulations
and implementing them on everyone. But only 23.3 percent saw that reform
should be through changing figures.
Political and religious figures and factions
* President Arafat and Fateh faction are still the most popular amongst
the Palestinian people.
Most Palestinians, 47.5 percent, expected that if free elections were
held, the Palestinian people would elect President Arafat again, while
37.8 percent expected otherwise.
President Arafat remains the most trusted Palestinian figure by the
Palestinian people wherein 25.1 percent said so as opposed to 27.9 percent
in March 2002 and 24.5 percent in December 2001.
The second in line of trust is Sheikh Ahmed Yassin who was chosen by
8.8 percent of those interviewed as the most trusted figure as opposed
to 9.7 percent in March 2002 and 12.8 in December 2001. This marks a retract
in Palestinian trust of Yassin.
The third in line of trust is Marwan Barghouthi who was chosen by 6.3
percent as opposed to 2.8 percent in March 2002 and 2.7 in December 2001.
Barghouthi has maintained the third position for almost a year.
As for Palestinian factions, Fateh maintained the most trusted faction
reaching 27.3 percent as opposed to 29.5 last March and 26.1 percent in
December 2001. The Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, was chosen by 22.6
percent as opposed to 19.8 percent last March and 21.3 percent in December
2001. In addition, al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades was chosen as the most trusted
by 1.4 percent as opposed to 1.9 percent last March.
Intifadah and resistance
* A great majority remained supportive of continuing the Intifadah
with a slight retraction to 78.9 percent from 83.9 percent in March 2002
and 80.1 percent in December 2001.
Popular opinion increased its radicalization when 51.1 percent said
that the aim of the Intifadah is to liberate all Palestinian land (historic
Palestine) as opposed to 42.8 percent who said the Intifadah's aim is to
end the Israeli occupation. This marks as a change from the December 2001
results when only 43.9 percent said the Intifadah's aim is to liberate
all of historic Palestine and 48.1 percent considered the goal to end the
occupation.
The majority of those interviewed, 71.7 percent, believe that Palestinian
military operations are a suitable response during the current political
situation as opposed to only 22.5 percent who objected to military operations
during the Intifadah and considered them harmful.
Most Palestinians, 47.9 percent, do not see a difference between Palestinian
military operations conducted inside Israel or in the occupied territories.
As for suicide bombing operations, 68.1 percent of those interviewed
supported them and only 26 percent opposed them. This is a retract of support
for suicide bombings when in March 2002 72 percent supported them and in
December 2001 when 74 percent supported them.
Methodology
A random sample of 1179 people over the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face
throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip between 29, 30, 31 May and 1, 2,
June 2002. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes, and
the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according to
Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen
randomly according to population.
In the West Bank 739 people were surveyed from the following
areas: Jenin: Jenin, Jenin Refugee Camp (RC), Kufr Ra'ee, Arabeh, Zababdeh,
Akabeh, Sarees, Maythaloun and Al-yamoun . Nablus: Nablus, 'Asira Al-qabalieh,
Kufr Hares and Marda. Tulkarem and Qalqilya: Tulkarem, Tulkarem RC, Qalqilya,
Jayous, Bal'a and Beit Leid. Hebron: Hebron, Halhoul, Doura, Beit Kahel,
Alfawar RC, Adna, Bani Na'eem and Tarqoumia. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Beit
Sahour, Al-khader, Al-doha, Artas and Duhesheih RC . Jericho: Jericho,
Aqabet Jaber RC. Ramallah & al-Bireh: al-Bireh, Ramallah, beit Rema,
Jalazon RC, kufr Malek and Na'leen . Jerusalem: a-Dahia, A-ram,
Shufat, Beit Hanina, Beit Hanina Al-tahta, Old City, Ras al-Amoud, Qalandia
RC, al-'Isawia , Silwan, Kufr 'Aqab, Wadi Al-joz
In the Gaza Strip: 440 people were surveyed from: North Gaza:
Jabalia RC, Jabalia, Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun. Gaza City: Sheikh Radwan,
al-Darj, al-Tufah, Sabra, al-Naser, al-Zaytoun, al-Shaja'ieh, al-Rimal
north and south, Shati RC. Deir al-Balah: Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat RC Al-Breig
and Al-Maghazi RC. Khan Younis: Khan Younis, Khan Younis RC, Bani Sahila,
Abssan al-Kabeera, Abssan AL-Saghera. Rafah: Rafah, Rafah RC, Tal al-Sultan
RC.
The margin of error is 3 percent, with a confidence level of 95.
Q2. What do you think of the Oslo agreement? Would you say you strongly
support, support, oppose or strongly oppose it?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Strongly support | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Support | 28.4 | 29.4 | 26.8 |
| Oppose | 38.1 | 35.7 | 42.0 |
| Strongly oppose | 27.2 | 28.6 | 25.0 |
| No answer | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 |
Q.3 In principle, do you strongly support , Somewhat support, Somewhat
oppose, or Strongly oppose peace negotiations between Palestinians and
Israel?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Strongly support | 6.2 | 5.8 | 6.8 |
| Somewhat support | 40.4 | 39.1 | 42.5 |
| Somewhat oppose | 25.2 | 25.4 | 24.8 |
| Strongly oppose | 27.1 | 28.4 | 24.8 |
| No answer | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
Q.4 How optimistic or pessimistic are you towards reaching a peaceful
settlement for the Arab-Israeli conflict?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Very optimistic | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Optimistic | 24.4 | 21.0 | 30.2 |
| Pessimistic | 38.1 | 37.5 | 39.1 |
| Very pessimistic | 33.8 | 37.1 | 28.4 |
| No answer | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
Q5. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or
strongly oppose the continuation of the al-Aqsa Intifada in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Strongly support | 43.3 | 39.4 | 50.0 |
| Somewhat support | 35.6 | 37.3 | 32.7 |
| Somewhat oppose | 13.1 | 12.6 | 13.9 |
| Strongly oppose | 5.8 | 8.1 | 1.8 |
| No answer | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
Q.6 Some believe that the Intifada is the best path to achieve our
national goals and end the occupation; others believe that the negotiations
are the best way to do so. There are some who believe that the continuation
of the Intifada and the negotiations together is the method to achieve
Palestinian national goals, so in your perspective what is the best way
to achieve our national goals?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza Strip |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Only the Intifada | 32.5 | 32.5 | 32.5 |
| Only negotiations | 10.4 | 11.6 | 8.4 |
| Intifada and negotiations together | 51.4 | 50.2 | 53.4 |
| I don’t know | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| No answer | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 |
Q.7 In your opinion, what should be the end result of the current
Intifada, is it improving the negotiation conditions for Palestinians,
ending occupation based on UN Resolution 242 and the establishment of the
Palestinian state or liberating all of historic Palestine?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Improve negotiation conditions for Palestinians | 3.5 | 2.6 | 5.0 |
| Ending occupation on basis of UN Resolution 242 and establishing the Palestinian state | 42.8 | 40.7 | 46.4 |
| Liberating all of historic Palestine | 51.1 | 54.1 | 45.9 |
| Other | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| I don’t know | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| No answer | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
Q8. The current Intifada includes popular characteristics such as
the demonstrations and military characteristics . in your opinion, do you
support the continuation of a popular or military Intifada or both of them
together?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| I am with the continuation of a popular resistance Intifada | 18.7 | 21.0 | 14.8 |
| I am with the military resistance Intifada | 17.2 | 21.5 | 10.0 |
| I am with both of them | 58.3 | 51.4 | 69.8 |
| I don’t know | 4.1 | 4.6 | 3.2 |
| No answer | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2.2 |
Q.9 Do you support the resumption of the military operations against
Israeli targets as a suitable response within the current political conditions,
or do you reject it and find it harmful to Palestinian national interests?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| A suitable response within the current political conditions | 70.7 | 68.7 | 73.9 |
| I reject it and find it harmful to Palestinian national interests | 22.5 | 23.5 | 20.7 |
| other | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| I don’t know | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| No answer | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 |
Q.10 Are you with the resumption of the military operations only
inside Israel, only inside the occupied territories or inside Israel and
the occupied territories?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Inside Israel only | 18.2 | 19.1 | 16.6 |
| Inside the occupied territories only | 10.5 | 11.1 | 9.5 |
| Inside Israel and the occupied territories | 47.9 | 42.9 | 65.4 |
| I am not with the resumption of the military operations | 18.3 | 20.8 | 14.1 |
| No answer | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.4 |
Q.11 What is your feeling towards suicide bombing operations against
Israeli civilians, do you support it or oppose it?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Strongly support | 38.8 | 35.6 | 44.3 |
| Somewhat support | 29.3 | 30.9 | 26.6 |
| Strongly oppose | 16.2 | 16.8 | 15.2 |
| Somewhat oppose | 9.8 | 9.2 | 10.7 |
| I Don’t Know/ No opinion | 5.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 |
| No answer | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
Q12. Saudi Arabia proposed a political initiative which was adopted
at the last Arab Summit in Beirut. It stipulates withdrawal of Israel to
1967 borders including East Jerusalem, solve the refugee problem based
on UN resolution 194, establishment of a Palestinian state in return to
Arab states' recognition of Israel and establishing normal peace relations
with it. What is your opinion on this initiative?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Good initiative because it is congruent with Palestinian goals | 13.5 | 11.0 | 17.7 |
| Bad initiative because it contradicts with Palestinian goals | 38.3 | 43.4 | 29.5 |
| A somewhat reasonable initiative but it should be amended. | 36.5 | 32.3 | 43.4 |
| no opinion | 9.2 | 9.5 | 8.9 |
| no answer | 2.5 | 3.8 | 0.5 |
Q13. During the Israeli invasion of the PNA territories, a debate
emerged between Palestinians over the performance of the PNA apparatuses;
some believe that the PNA performance during the invasion was the best,
others believe that its work was disappointing while another group believes
that within its limited capabilities it could not have done more, what
is your opinion?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| I believe that the PNA apparatuses performed in the best possible manner. | 6.4 | 4.3 | 9.8 |
| I believe that the PNA apparatuses performance was disappointing. | 43.3 | 46.5 | 38.0 |
| I believe that the PNA apparatuses worked within the limits of its restricted capabilities and could not have done better. | 44.5 | 43.6 | 46.1 |
| I do not know | 2.6 | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| I have no opinion | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
| No answer | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
Q14. what do you think about chairman Arafat As a leader for the
Palestinians during the Israeli incursion?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Very good | 13.2 | 10.0 | 18.6 |
| good | 27.7 | 27.1 | 28.9 |
| In between | 26.0 | 28.4 | 22.0 |
| Bad | 14.4 | 15.4 | 12.7 |
| Very Bad | 14.4 | 14.1 | 15.0 |
| No Answer | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 |
Q15. How did the Israeli incursion affected your perspective towards
the following:
| a-Chairman Arafat: | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Increase my Support | 38.4 | 36.4 | 41.8 |
| Decrease my support | 34.2 | 36.9 | 29.5 |
| It didn’t influence my support | 23.2 | 21.0 | 27.0 |
| No answer | 4.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 |
| b- Fatah Movement: | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Increase my Support | 42.7 | 36.4 | 53.2 |
| Decrease my support | 26.0 | 32.2 | 15.5 |
| It didn’t influence my support | 26.5 | 24.2 | 30.5 |
| No answer | 4.8 | 7.2 | 0.8 |
| c- Hamas movement: | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Increase my Support | 58.9 | 56.8 | 62.5 |
| Decrease my support | 13.1 | 15.3 | 9.3 |
| It didn’t influence my support | 23.5 | 21.4 | 27.0 |
| No answer | 4.5 | 6.5 | 1.2 |
| d- PNA: | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Increase my Support | 16.0 | 14.2 | 19.1 |
| Decrease my support | 49.1 | 54.5 | 40.0 |
| It didn’t influence my support | 30.2 | 25.0 | 38.9 |
| No answer | 4.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 |
| e- Palestinian Security Service: | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Increase my Support | 16.7 | 13.7 | 21.8 |
| Decrease my support | 52.2 | 57.6 | 43.0 |
| It didn’t influence my support | 26.1 | 22.2 | 32.7 |
| No answer | 5.0 | 6.5 | 2.5 |
| f-The negotiations with the Israelis: | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Increase my Support | 12.3 | 13.9 | 9.5 |
| Decrease my support | 60.6 | 60.9 | 60.2 |
| It didn’t influence my support | 22.0 | 19.2 | 26.6 |
| No answer | 5.1 | 6.0 | 3.7 |
| g- The suicide bombing: | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Increase my Support | 65.6 | 62.5 | 70.9 |
| Decrease my support | 14.8 | 16.2 | 12.3 |
| It didn’t influence my support | 14.9 | 14.5 | 15.7 |
| No answer | 4.7 | 6.8 | 1.1 |
Q16- a major debate emerged recently in the Palestinian society regarding
the need to have reforms in the PA; some believe that it is time to hold
internal reforms, while others believe that the time is not appropriate
to engage in internal reforms and a third group believes that there is
no need for any kind of reforms, what is your opinion?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| I believe that it is time to hold internal reforms. | 57.6 | 56.2 | 60.0 |
| I believe that the time is not appropriate to engage in internal reforms. | 26.8 | 27.7 | 25.2 |
| there is no need for any kind of reforms. | 10.8 | 10.1 | 11.8 |
| I have no opinion | 4.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 |
| No answer | 0.8 | 0.6 | 1.4 |
Q17- if you believe that the time is not appropriate? Why?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=316 | N=205 | N=111 |
|---|
| because it is not appropriate to engage in internal reforms during the struggle with Israel. | 47.2 | 44.4 | 52.3 |
| because we are not ready internally to hold real and serious reforms. | 25.0 | 25.9 | 23.4 |
| because I fear that the reforms will be superficial. | 24.1 | 25.9 | 20.7 |
| because I do not believe that there is no need for reforms | 2.8 | 2.4 | 3.6 |
| I do not have any opinion | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 |
* Asked to those who answered “I believe that the time is not appropriate to engage in internal reforms” in question 16
Q18- what do you think is the best way to achieve real reforms that
the people are talking about these days? Is changing persons is the best
way? Or changing the laws and regulations? Or is holding elections the
best way to achieve reform?*
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=995 | N=620 | N=375 |
|---|
| the best way to achieve real reform is to change the structure of the official people | 23.3 | 23.9 | 22.4 |
| the best way to achieve real reforms is to improve the accountability laws and regulations and implement them on others. | 29.1 | 28.2 | 30.7 |
| the best way to achieve real reforms is to hold free democratic elections | 41.7 | 41.1 | 42.7 |
| to change the structure of the official people, to improve the accountability laws and regulations and implement them on others and to hold free democratic elections | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Other | 1.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| I do not know. | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| No answer | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
* Asked for those who answered “I believe that it is time to hold internal reforms” & “I believe that the time is not appropriate to engage in internal reforms” in question 16.
Q19- if free democratic elections are held under these conditions,
do you expect the Palestinian people to re-elect President Yasser Arafat?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Yes | 47.5 | 47.5 | 47.5 |
| No | 37.8 | 37.8 | 37.8 |
| No answer | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
Q20. Which Palestinian personality do you trust the most?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Yasser Arafat | 25.1 | 22.7 | 29.1 |
| Ahmed Yassin | 8.8 | 6.8 | 12.3 |
| Marwan Bargouti | 6.3 | 5.4 | 7.7 |
| Sa’eb Erekat | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Haider Abdul Shafi | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.0 |
| Ahmed Abdul Rahman | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Ahmad Sa’dat | 1.8 | 1.5 | 2.3 |
| Hanan Ashrawi | 1.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| Farouq Al-qadoumi | 1.6 | 2.3 | 0.5 |
| Others | 13.6 | 12.7 | 15.0 |
| I Don’t trust anyone | 24.5 | 27.3 | 19.8 |
| Don’t Know | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
| No answer | 7.2 | 8.7 | 4.8 |
* The Following questions were open ended questions
Q21. Which Palestinian political or religious faction do you
trust most?
| | Total | West Bank | Gaza |
|---|
| | N=1179 | N=739 | N=440 |
|---|
| Fateh | 27.3 | 22.5 | 35.5 |
| Hamas | 22.6 | 19.9 | 27.0 |
| Islamic Jihad | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.5 |
| PFLP | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| AL- aqsa Birigades | 1.4 | 0.8 | 2.3 |
| Other Factions | 3.9 | 4.2 | 3.4 |
| Don’t trust anyone | 27.2 | 32.5 | 18.4 |
| Don’t Know | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| No answer | 9.3 | 11.8 | 5.2 |
* The Following questions were open ended questions
