|
JMCC Public Opinion Poll
No. 46
On Palestinian Attitudes Towards
the Palestinian Situation and the
Second anniversary of the Intifada
September 21 - 25, 2002
JMCC Public Opinion Polls are supported
by a fund from Fredrich Ebert Stiftung Foundation, Germany
Introduction
Significant Opinion Results
-
On the eve of the second anniversary
of the Intifadah, the majority of Palestinians remain supportive of continuing
the Intifadah with both its popular and military resistance forms in Israel
and the Palestinian territories.
-
A majority of Palestinians is pessimistic
of the future saying neither a peaceful settlement to the conflict or peace
with Israelis will be achieved.
-
Palestinians support conducting general
elections in January 2003, and most of them say Yasser Arafat will be re-elected,
showing a significant increase of support for his re-election.
-
A majority of Palestinians do not believe
that the Palestinian leadership can conduct serious reform and internal
changes during the current situation (Israeli re-occupation, attack and
besiegement of Arafat).
Intifadah and Resistance
A great majority of Palestinians,
80.6 percent, steadily remained supportive of continuing the Intifadah
with 48.4 percent saying its goal is to end the Israeli military occupation
and establish the independent Palestinian state based on UN Security Council
resolution 242. Only 16.4 percent strongly or somewhat oppose the continuation
of the Intifadah.
Popular opinion considering the
aim of the Intifadah is to liberate all of historic Palestine dropped to
43 percent from 51.1 percent last June. When asked what is the favored
solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, 44 percent said a two-state
solution, 28.9 percent said a bi-national state in historic Palestine,
and 12.6 percent said there is no solution. In March 2002, 41.6 percent
preferred a two-state solution, 31.6 percent said a bi-national state.
The majority of Palestinians, 52
percent, believe that the continuation of the Intifadah and negotiations
together is the best path to achieve Palestinian national goals and end
the occupation, showing similar results as June 2002 (51.4 percent).
Of those interviewed, 73 percent
said they are either pessimistic or very pessimistic that a peaceful settlement
for the Arab-Israeli conflict would be achieved while 24.8 percent said
they are optimistic or very optimistic, very similar beliefs were found
last June and March. Still, 57.2 percent believe that the peace process
is alive either having an unknown future, 44.5 percent, or negotiations
could be resumed, 12.7 percent, compared with 66.3 percent who believed
the process is alive last June. Those who believe the peace process is
dead were 38.9 percent compared with 28.4 percent last March.
Throughout the Intifadah, the majority
of Palestinians, 59.5 percent, support the continuation of both popular
and military forms of resistance. A significant majority, 69.5 percent,
believes that Palestinian military operations against Israeli targets are
a suitable response during the current political situation as opposed to
23.2 percent who oppose them and consider them harmful to Palestinian national
interests.
Yet, as in previous surveys this
year, 46.1 percent do not see a difference between Palestinian military
operations conducted inside Israel or in the occupied territories, while
only 20.5 percent support them inside Israel only and 12.2 percent support
them inside the occupied territories only.
As for suicide bombing operations
against Israeli civilians, there is a slight trend of decreased support
for them since 64.3 percent of those interviewed supported them dropping
from 68.1 last June, 72 percent last March and 74 percent last December.
Only 27.7 percent opposed them. Yet 61.1 percent of Palestinians strongly
or somewhat oppose ending all military/suicide operations inside Israel
as opposed to 30.5 percent who strongly or somewhat support ending all
operations.
Reform and Elections
Last June, 57.6 percent of Palestinians
said the time is ripe for reform, but now, 64.2 percent of Palestinians
say the Palestinian leadership is incapable of conducting serious reform
and internal changes because of the current situation of Israeli re-occupation
of Palestinian territory and the current besiegement of Yasser Arafat’s
headquarters in Ramallah, 23.9 percent said the leadership is still capable
of reforming and 10.7 percent said they didn’t know.
Forty-six percent of Palestinians
believe the Palestinian leadership is serious in conducting reform as opposed
to 40.7 percent who do not believe so while 12.1 percent said they did
not know.
A majority of Palestinians support
conducting elections in January 2003 with 65.2 supporting presidential
elections and 73.2 percent supporting Legislative Council elections.
Fifty-two percent of Palestinians
said Palestinian Authority performance is generally bad or very bad while
43.3 percent said it is good or very good. Also, 47.8 percent-said Legislative
Council performance is bad, 37.7 percent said it is in between and only
9.7 percent said very good.
A slight majority of those surveyed,
50.9 percent said they were very or somewhat satisfied with Arafat’s performance
as president compared with 42.3 percent who said they were very or somewhat
dissatisfied with his performance. But 52.2 percent of Palestinians believe
Arafat is totally or to some extent in control of Palestinian internal
situation as opposed to 45.2 percent who said he is totally or to some
extent not in control.
Most Palestinians, 60.6 percent,
expected that if free elections were held, the Palestinian people would
re-elect President Yasser Arafat compared with 47.5 percent last June,
while 28.6 percent expected otherwise compared with 37.8 percent last June.
Palestinians are divided on the
need for a prime minister position in the Palestinian Authority where 42.5
percent said there is a need and 41.7 percent said there is no need; 12.9
percent said they did not know.
Trust and Distrust in Figures
and Factions
Palestinian President Yasser Arafat
and his mainstream Fateh faction are still the most popular amongst the
Palestinian public with a slight rise in popularity. A rise to 27.6 percent
of Palestinians who said Arafat is the most trusted Palestinian figure
compared with 25.1 percent last June.
The second in line of trust is Sheikh
Ahmed Yassin, founder and spiritual leader of Hamas, who was chosen by
10.3 percent of those interviewed as opposed to 8.8 percent last June.
The third in line of trust is Marwan
Barghouthi, Fateh leader detained in Israeli jails, who was chosen by 3.3
percent as opposed to 6.3 percent last June.
There are 26.7 percent of Palestinians
who do not trust any Palestinian figure.
As for Palestinian factions, Fateh
maintained the most trusted faction at 32.9 percent rising from 27.3 percent
last June. The Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, was chosen by 20.9 percent
compared to 22.6 percent last June.
There are 25.8 percent of Palestinians
who do not trust any faction.
Methodology
A random sample of 1199 people over
the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and
Gaza Strip between 21-25 September 2002. The interviews were conducted
in randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also
selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted
in 60 sampling points chosen randomly according to population.
IIn the West Bank
759 people were surveyed from the following areas: Jenin: Jenin,
Jenin Refugee Camp (RC), Arabeh, Zababdeh, Silat Al-harithia and
Sanour . Nablus: Nablus,Zawata, Hiwara, Kufr Qaleel, salfit, Balata
RC. Tulkarem and Qalqilya: Tulkarem, Tulkarem RC, Qalqilya, ‘Azoun,
Rameen and Beit Leid. Hebron: Hebron, Yatta, Beit umar, Sa’eer,
Dura, Beit Kahel, Beit Ula and Aroub RC. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, Beit
Sahour, Za’tara, Husan and ‘Azza RC. Jericho: Jericho, ‘Ain al-Sultan
RC. Ramallah & al-Bireh: al-Bireh, Ramallah, beit Rema, Al-Amari
RC, Koubar and al-Mizra’a al-Sharqiya . Jerusalem: a-Dahia,
A-ram, Beir Nabala, Shufat, Beit Hanina, Beit Hanina Al-tahta, Old City,
Ras al-Amoud, Qalandia RC, al-‘Isawia , Silwan, Wadi Al-joz and Jabal
al-Mukaber.
In the Gaza Strip:
440 people were surveyed from: North Gaza: Jabalia RC, Jabalia,
Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun. Gaza City: Sheikh Radwan, al-Darj, al-Tufah,
Sabra, al-Naser, al-Zaytoun, al-Shaja’ieh, al-Rimal north and south, Shati
RC. Deir al-Balah: Deir al-Balah, Nuseirat RC Al-Breig and Al-Maghazi
RC. Khan Younis: Khan Younis, Khan Younis RC, Bani Sahila, Abssan
al-Kabeera, Abssan AL-Saghera. Rafah: Rafah, Rafah RC, Tal al-Sultan
RC.
The margin of error is 3 percent,
with a confidence level of 95.
Occupation
respondents
Students 10.6%,
laborers 9.1%,
Farmers/fishermen 4.3%
Craftsmen 1.9%
Businessmen/private business 7.8%
Employees e.g. secretaries/municipal
employees/teachers/nurses 17.2%
Professionals - e.g. doctors/lawyers/
pharmacists/engineers 1.9%
Housewives 34.3%,
Unemployed 10.3%
Retired 1.3%,
No answer 1.3%.
Results
Q1. In general how optimistic
or pessimistic do you feel towards the future?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| |
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Very optimistic |
3.3
|
4.2
|
1.8
|
| Optimistic |
39.3
|
38.7
|
40.2
|
| Pessimistic |
30.1
|
27.9
|
33.9
|
| Very Pessimistic |
26.7
|
28.3
|
23.9
|
| No answer |
0.6
|
0.9
|
0.2
|
Q.2 In principle, do you strongly
support , Somewhat support, Somewhat oppose, or Strongly oppose peace negotiations
between Palestinians and Israel?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Strongly support |
7.4
|
9.0
|
4.8
|
| Somewhat support |
39.1
|
37.8
|
41.4
|
| Somewhat oppose |
23.4
|
22.7
|
24.8
|
| Strongly oppose |
28.5
|
28.5
|
28.6
|
| No answer |
1.6
|
2.0
|
0.4
|
Q.3 How optimistic or pessimistic
are you towards reaching a peaceful settlement for the Arab-Israeli conflict?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199 |
N=759
|
N=440 |
| Very optimistic |
2.1
|
2.8
|
0.9
|
| Optimistic |
22.7
|
19.8
|
27.7
|
| Very Pessimistic |
41.1
|
39.9
|
43.2
|
| Pessimistic |
31.9
|
34.5
|
27.3
|
| No answer |
2.2
|
3.0
|
0.9
|
Q4. What do you think of the
Oslo agreement? Would you say you strongly support, support, oppose or
strongly oppose it?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Strongly support |
3.4
|
3.7
|
3.0
|
| Support |
25.1
|
24.4
|
26.4
|
| Oppose |
35.5
|
33.5
|
39.1
|
| Strongly oppose |
30.8
|
31.6
|
29.3
|
| No answer |
5.2
|
6.8
|
2.2
|
Q5. Do you strongly agree, somewhat agree, somewhat
disagree, or strongly disagree that at a certain point peace will be achieved
between Palestinians and Israelis?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Strongly agree |
6.0
|
7.6
|
3.2
|
| Somewhat agree |
34.0
|
31.9
|
37.7
|
| Somewhat disagree |
30.1
|
27.7
|
34.3
|
| Strongly disagree |
23.2
|
23.6
|
22.5
|
| No answer |
6.7
|
9.2
|
2.3
|
Q.6 Under the current conditions, some believe that
the peace process is dead and there is no chance of resuming the negotiations,
while others see that the peace process is passing through difficult conditions
with an unclear future and there is another group that believes that the
peace process is still alive and there is a possibility of resuming negotiations?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| The peace process is dead and there is no chance of resuming
the negotiations |
38.9
|
41.0
|
35.2
|
| The peace process is passing through difficult conditions
with an unclear future |
44.5
|
42.0
|
48.6
|
| The peace process is still alive and there is a possibility
of resuming negotiations |
12.7
|
12.6
|
12.7
|
| Other |
0.4
|
0.4
|
0.5
|
| Don't know |
3.3
|
3.6
|
3.0
|
| No answer |
0.2
|
0.4
|
0.0
|
Q7. Do you strongly support,
somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose the continuation
of the al-Aqsa Intifada in the West Bank and Gaza Strip?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| |
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Strongly support |
44.1
|
42.0
|
47.7
|
| Somewhat support |
36.5
|
34.4
|
40.2
|
| Somewhat oppose |
11.7
|
13.2
|
9.1
|
| Strongly oppose |
4.7
|
5.7
|
3.0
|
| No answer |
3.0
|
4.7
|
0.0
|
Q8. The current Intifada includes popular characteristics,
such as the demonstrations, and military characteristics . In your opinion,
do you support the continuation of a popular or military Intifada or both
of them together?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| I am with the continuation of a popular resistance Intifada |
19.4
|
22.3
|
14.5
|
| I am with the military resistance Intifada |
11.5
|
14.5
|
6.4
|
| I am with both of them |
59.5
|
50.6
|
74.8
|
| I don't know |
7.3
|
9.7
|
3.0
|
| No answer |
2.3
|
2.9
|
1.3
|
Q.9 Some believe that the Intifada is the best path
to achieve our national goals and end the occupation; others believe that
the negotiations are the best way to do so. There are some who believe
that the continuation of the Intifada and the negotiations together is
the method to achieve Palestinian national goals, so in your perspective
what is the best way to achieve our national goals?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Only the Intifada |
31.9
|
29.6
|
35.7
|
| Only negotiations |
11.3
|
14.0
|
6.6
|
| Intifada and negotiations together |
52.0
|
49.7
|
55.9
|
| I don't know |
3.6
|
4.9
|
1.4
|
| No answer |
1.2
|
1.8
|
0.4
|
Q.10 In your opinion, what should be the end result
of the current Intifada, is it improving the negotiation conditions for
Palestinians, ending occupation based on UN Resolution 242 and the establishment
of the Palestinian state or liberating all of historic Palestine?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Improve negotiation conditions for Palestinians |
5.8
|
7.5
|
3.2
|
| Ending occupation on basis of UN Resolution 242 and establishing
the Palestinian state |
48.4
|
46.9
|
50.9
|
| Liberating all of historic Palestine |
43.0
|
41.8
|
45.0
|
| Other |
0.6
|
0.9
|
0.0
|
| I don't know |
1.6
|
2.4
|
0.2
|
| No answer |
0.5
|
0.5
|
0.7
|
Q. 11 After two years of the Intifada, are you very
optimistic, somewhat optimistic, somewhat pessimistic or very pessimistic
towards achieving it’s object ( the one that you chose in the previous
question):
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Very optimistic |
6.9
|
6.6
|
7.3
|
| Optimistic |
45.9
|
41.0
|
54.3
|
| Pessimistic |
28.6
|
28.7
|
28.4
|
| Very Pessimistic |
15.8
|
19.9
|
8.6
|
| No answer |
2.9
|
3.8
|
1.4
|
Q.12 Some believe that the "Two - State Formula" is
the best solution for the Israeli - Palestinian conflict while others believe
that the historical Palestine cannot be divided into two states and therefore
the best solution would be a "Bi-National State" in all of Palestine where
Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal rights, which of these two solutions
would you prefer?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| "Two - State Formula" is the best solution for the Israeli
- Palestinian |
44.0
|
47.2
|
38.6
|
| The best solution would be a "Bi-National State" in all
of Palestine |
28.9
|
28.6
|
29.5
|
| A Palestinian State |
8.3
|
4.5
|
14.8
|
| An Islamic Palestinian State |
2.1
|
2.5
|
1.4
|
| There is no solution |
12.6
|
12.4
|
13.0
|
| Other |
1.0
|
0.9
|
1.1
|
| I don't know |
2.3
|
3.0
|
0.9
|
| No answer |
0.8
|
0.9
|
0.7
|
Q.13 Do you support the resumption of the military
operations against Israeli targets as a suitable response within the current
political conditions, or do you reject it and find it harmful to Palestinian
national interests?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| A suitable response within the current political conditions |
69.5
|
63.8
|
79.3
|
| I reject it and find it harmful to Palestinian national
interests |
23.2
|
26.1
|
18.2
|
| Others |
0.9
|
1.3
|
0.2
|
| I don’t know |
5.4
|
7.5
|
1.8
|
| No answer |
1.0
|
1.3
|
0.5
|
Q.14 Are you with the resumption of the military operations
only inside Israel, only inside the occupied territories or inside Israel
and the occupied territories?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Inside Israel only |
20.5
|
20.8
|
20.0
|
| Inside the occupied territories only |
12.2
|
14.4
|
8.4
|
| Inside Israel and the occupied territories |
46.1
|
38.5
|
59.3
|
| I am not with the resumption of the military operations |
16.3
|
19.6
|
10.7
|
| No answer |
4.9
|
6.7
|
1.6
|
Q.15 What is your feeling towards suicide bombing operations
against Israeli civilians, do you support it or oppose it?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Strongly support |
35.1
|
29.2
|
45.2
|
| Somewhat support |
29.2
|
28.3
|
30.7
|
| Strongly oppose |
18.3
|
1.4
|
18.2
|
| Somewhat oppose |
9.4
|
12.6
|
3.9
|
| I don't know/No opinion |
5.9
|
8.8
|
0.9
|
| No answer |
2.1
|
2.7
|
1.1
|
16. Do you strongly, or somewhat, support or strongly,
or somewhat, oppose stopping all kind of operations inside Israel ?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Strongly support |
12.3
|
14.9
|
8.0
|
| Somewhat support |
18.2
|
18.4
|
17.7
|
| Strongly oppose |
28.7
|
26.6
|
32.3
|
| Somewhat oppose |
32.4
|
28.3
|
39.3
|
| I don't know/No opinion |
6.8
|
9.5
|
2.3
|
| No answer |
1.6
|
2.3
|
0.4
|
17. Do you strongly, or somewhat, support or
strongly, or somewhat, oppose conducting presidential elections in January
2003?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Strongly support |
30.8
|
31.5
|
29.5
|
| Somewhat support |
34.4
|
29.5
|
42.7
|
| Strongly oppose |
15.9
|
17.0
|
14.1
|
| Somewhat oppose |
9.6
|
10.5
|
8.0
|
| I don't know/No opinion |
7.3
|
9.0
|
4.5
|
| No answer |
2.0
|
2.5
|
1.2
|
18. Do you strongly, or somewhat, support or strongly,
or somewhat, oppose conducting Legislative Council elections in January
2003?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199 |
N=759
|
N=440 |
| Strongly support |
38.6
|
40.4
|
35.5
|
| Somewhat support |
34.6
|
30.2
|
42.3
|
| Strongly oppose |
12.0
|
12.6
|
10.9
|
| Somewhat oppose |
6.4
|
5.9
|
7.3
|
| I don't know/No opinion |
6.8
|
9.0
|
3.0
|
| No answer |
1.6
|
1.9
|
1.0
|
Q19- If free democratic elections are held under these
conditions, do you expect the Palestinian people to re-elect President
Yasser Arafat?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Yes |
60.6
|
60.2
|
61.4
|
| No |
26.6
|
26.4
|
32.5
|
| No answer |
10.8
|
13.4
|
6.1
|
Q20. In your opinion, do you think that there is a
need for a Prime Minister position in the Palestinian National Authority?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| There is a need |
42.5
|
44.3
|
39.3
|
| There is no need |
41.7
|
37.2
|
49.5
|
| I don't know |
12.9
|
14.9
|
9.5
|
| No answer |
2.9
|
3.6
|
1.7
|
Q21. In general, how do you evaluate the performance
of the Palestinian National Authority? Very good, good, bad or very bad?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Very good |
4.4
|
5.4
|
2.7
|
| Good |
38.9
|
37.9
|
40.7
|
| Bad |
33.4
|
30.6
|
38.4
|
| Very bad |
18.6
|
18.8
|
18.2
|
| No answer |
4.7
|
7.3
|
0.0
|
Q22. In general, how do you evaluate the performance
of the Legislative Council? good, in between, or bad?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Good |
9.7
|
9.9
|
9.3
|
| In between |
37.7
|
36.5
|
39.8
|
| Bad |
47.8
|
46.2
|
50.5
|
| No answer |
4.9
|
7.4
|
0.4
|
Q23. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner
Yasser Arafat manages his position as a Palestinian Authority President?
Very Satisfied, somewhat satisfied , very dissatisfied or somewhat dissatisfied?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
|
N=1199
|
N=759
|
N=440
|
| Very satisfied |
16.3
|
15.5
|
17.5
|
| Somewhat satisfied |
34.6
|
37.2
|
30.2
|
| Very dissatisfied |
14.9
|
11.5
|
20.9
|
| Somewhat dissatisfied |
27.4
|
26.9
|
28.4
|
| No answer |
6.8
|
8.9
|
3.0
|
Q.24 There is a debate among international circles
as to whether the Palestinian president is in control of the internal Palestinian
situation, or whether he is in control up to a certain degree or whether
he is not in control up to a certain degree, or whether he is not in control
at all, what is your opinion?
|
|
Total
|
West Bank
|
Gaza Strip
|
| The president Yassir Arafat is in control of the internal
Palestinian situation |
12.8
|
12.1
|
14.1
|
| The president Yassir Arafat is in control up to a certain
degree |
39.4
|
37.0
|
43.6
|
| The president Yassir Arafat is not in control up to a
certain degree |
27.2
|
28.3
|
25.2
|
| The president Yassir Arafat is not in control at all |
18.0
|
19.5
|
15.5
|
| No answer |
2.6
|
3.1
|
1.6
|
| 
