Contents

• Palestinian Public Opinion Since the
• Peace Process Acronyms
• Important Dates
• Table of Figures
• Introduction and Acknowledgement: Abdel Rahman Abu Arafeh and Ghassan Khatib
• Background
• Chapter One: The Peace Process
• Chapter Two: Support for the Oslo Track
• Chapter Three: The Palestinian Legislative Council and the Palestinian Authority
• Chapter Four: Support for President Arafat
• Chapter Five: Democracy and Palestine
• Conclusion
• Endnotes

The 1992 Oslo Agreement, was a milestone in the history of the Palestinian people. On the one hand, it allowed the Palestinian people, for the first time, to start on a political road which could lead them to establish an independent Palestinian state. At the same time, they started from the zero point efforts to build an infrastructure of a national authority which could, and is hoped, to lead the Palestinian people toward the establishment of a real state in the political, social and economic spheres.

Among the first steps, was launching of the first Palestinian presidential and legislative elections. These were considered as the beginning of a democratic process which would lead to develop the Palestinian political infrastructure so that it will become a modern political system governed by the principles of justice and the rule of law.

The political road was not easy. The agreements signed with the Israeli authorities were obstructed. In addition, efforts to build our institutions and guarantee separation of authorities through the principle of the rule of law, faced various obstacles because of internal factors and because the political process itself has not been completed yet.

In spite of these strong impediments, it does not seem that the Palestinian people, in general, have lost their faith in the current political process even though the criticisms and frustrations are growing all the time. The views of the Palestinian people in this process, its scope and results have changed since the start of the process and until today. Every stage was influenced by a group of factors and events.

Since the beginning of this process, public opinion polls were conducted on major issues dealing with the peace process, internal building of society and move toward democratic formation. Some of the main polls were conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communication Center (JMCC). What distinguished these polls was not only their follow-up on developments, but also the quality and precision of the questions asked and the skills of those conducting them.

The Arab Thought Forum closely followed up these polls. It felt that there were important elements these polls could offer in relation to its Democracy, Understanding and Development Program, particularly when these polls were consolidated and analyzed in a historical context taking into consideration the time period since the start of the political process and the following four years.

When this idea was discussed by the Arab Thought Forum and JM sides felt strongly about doing this kind of research and analysis in understand the development of the Palestinian society through a reading of public opinion trends and an evaluation of factors that would influence them.

It was therefore fortunate that one of the main people working in the public opinion polls project, Mr. Jamil Rabah, had the time to conduct this study. There is no doubt that his experience in this field and his follow-up of the ongoing political developments gave this study great vitality and realism.

The Arab Thought Forum and JMCC feel they should commend the distinguished effort by Mr. Rabah for preparing this study.

We cannot forget also the special efforts of members of both organizations, particularly Mr. Albert Aghazerian who thankfully reviewed the draft study and made linguistic and substantive comments, as well as Mr. Ziad Abdallah a[ Mr. Muhammad Omar Yousef for their logistic and linguistic contributions. We would also like to thank Ms. Manal Warrad from JMCC, for her role in conducting the opinion polls, and Ms. Zeina Gheith who assisted in typing the research document to bring it out in this form.

Finally, the Arab Thought Forum feels it has to give special thanks to USAID which made it possible through its generous contribution to the Democracy Understanding and Development Program, to materialize this study.

The Arab Thought Forum and JMCC feel that with this joint effort, they are offering a distinguished work in which they seek to qualitatively contribute to the efforts to study the democratization process in Palestine.

 Abdel Rahman Abu Arafeh

The Arab Thought Forum (ATF)

Ghassan Khatib

Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC)

The Palestinian Authority entered the peace process hoping that the Israeli government would succumb to international pressure and return, at least, part of the rights of the Palestinian people. The current situation is discouraging and, as Madeline Albright said, the peace process is moving nowhere: "[t]he Oslo process and the partnership relationship between n Israelis and Palestinians have collapsed" Quoted in Palestine Report. Vol. 2, # 45. P.2. We are facing a dangerous situation in the Middle East because the Arab-Israeli negotiations process has collapsed 1193. Israel is still pursuing policies that are detrimental to the peace process and is not seriously concerned with achieving peace. Even Yaser Arafat himself is loosing faith with the Netanyahu government: the "Netanyahu government's insistence on resuming settlement activities means that it does not want to achieve peace" Quoted in Palestine Report. Vol. 2, #45. April 18, 1997.

Despite the tremendous obstacles imposed on Palestinians of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, it is evident that they are still confident about a peaceful resolution to the Palestinian problem. In a poll conducted by the JMCC in December 1 997, 59.1 % of the respondents said that they are optimistic about reaching a peaceful Arab-Israeli settlement. This optimism could very much explain why the Palestinian public so strongly supports the peace process. Another reason is perhaps due to the feeling among Palestinians that the Israeli public is genuine about concluding peace with the Palestinians, while their government is not. As shown in figure 38, there exists a great gap between how Palestinians think about the Israeli people and how they perceive the current Israeli government.

Their positive attitude towards the Israeli public is, perhaps, what gives them hope, as does their belief that there is no other option that could rid them of occupation. This belief is also reflected in the level of support Palestinians have for Yaser Arafat, for Fateh, and for the Palestinian Authority. Despite his shortcomings, a great majority of Palestinians believe that Arafat is doing his job in a good way. This does not mean that they do not criticize him, nor his performance. What is evident from the above is that Palestinians are frustrated more about the Israelis than about the Palestinian Authority. The frustration that is loudly heard by the Council members and/or NGOS, and/or academics against Yaser Arafat or the Palestinian Authority does not necessarily mean that the public shares them their views. This may be due to the fact that the PLC is seen by the public in the same manner as they see the Palestinian Authority, or because the public lacks sufficient information about the PLC and about the performance of the PA. In either case, one can not deny that the work of the PLC is carried out in public, its sessions are open to the media, and its work is scrutinized and examined by both NGOs and the media. One cannot deny that there is some transparency and openness in the PA, as one can not deny that there are major problems with it. Perhaps this is not an ideal situation. Clearly all hope for a much better performance.

What the Palestinian public wants is a political solution. Rightly or wro, the Palestinian people are more concerned with achieving peace and ending occupation, than they are concerned about human rights. The issue of democracy is not their primary concern. Their main problem is Netanyahu and not Arafat, settlements and not corruption, closure and not human rights. Their main concern is to have bread on their table for their children. Bread that can only become available when they achieve their political rights. They trust Arafat to do that for them, and they are definitely giving him the time that, perhaps, neither the Council, nor the academics are giving to them.