Table of Contents

Part One:

Voting Patterns of the Palestinian Electorate

I. Explanation of the Election Results Using Survey Materials

1. Perceptions of the Electorate

2. Perceptions of Council Members

II. Prospective Voting Behavior in Future Elections

Part Two:

Evaluation of the Performance of the Legislative Council

i. General Impressions of the Legislative Council

1. Perceptions of the Electorate

2. Perceptions of Council Members

ii. Perceptions of Whether the Legislative Council Represents the Population

1. Perceptions of the Electorate

2. Perceptions of Council Members

iii. The Council’s Relations With Different Sectors of Palestinian Society and the Executive Authority

iv. Perceptions of the Legislative Council’s Level of Democracy

Conclusion

Annexes

Annex 1: Results of Poll on the Legislative Council Elections

Annex 2: Results of Survey of Legislative Council Members

Public opinion polls are new in Palestine. It was only five years ago that regular scientific polls based on proper methodology were first carried out. This coincided with the emergence of political debate in Palestine over the issue of participation in the peace process, debate which began in 1991 and flourished after the establishment of a Palestinian Authority and the election of a Legislative Council.

Policy research and analysis based on public opinion polls is an even newer phenomenon in Palestine, and this is due largely to the lack of familiarity with this new discipline by society and policy-makers, but also to the gap existing in general between the process of research and research circles and the process of decision-making and decision-making circles.

Jerusalem Media and Communication Centre, which has been active in conducting regular public opinion polls since March 1993, realized that, in spite of the rich data sources emerging from opinion polls conducted in and about Palestine, there was only minimal utilization of these in research. As a result, JMCC decided to expand its Public Opinion Polls Unit to include and produce data analysis based on its polling work. Palestine’s Interim Agreement With Democracy is our first attempt in this direction.

JMCC is proud to introduce this major contribution to researchers and politicians concerned with the issues of democracy and the efforts at democratization in Palestinian society. This study, which is based on an extensive public opinion poll and intensive interviews with politicians in addition to a survey within the Council itself, examines the public perceptions of the Council’s contribution to the democratization process and the extent to which the Council is really representative of the public, the Council’s impressions of its performance and its level of democracy in general, and includes intensive interviews with Palestinian Authority politicians and opposition figures.

Ultimately, this study attempts to assess the level of the Council’s contribution to Palestinian democracy. In order to accurately gauge the change in the democratization process and the Council’s contribution to this process, this study utilized another extensive survey on these same issues which was conducted one year before the existence of the Legislative Council, as a baseline in order to study the changes and measure the Council’s impact.

We hope that this study will prove useful to all those who read it, including the legislators whose performance is placed under scrutiny.

The aim of this study is to examine the role of the Palestinian Legislative Council, its contribution to democratic governance, and how it is perceived by the Palestinian public at large. The information on which this study is based has been obtained through a comprehensive public opinion poll, a survey conducted within the Legislative Council, and interviews with key members from across the political spectrum. The combination of a popular survey and a survey within the Legislative Council enabled us to target several core issues where the Legislative Council and the public diverge, or agree, in this critical stage in Palestinian state-building. Secondly, this two-track approach allowed us to analyze perceptions of the Legislative Council from the point of view of both the public and the Council in order to provide a balanced and accurate picture.

In September 1993, the Palestine Liberation Organization and Israel — after having conducted secret talks for eight months — signed the Declaration of Principles in Washington. Although the Declaration of Principles did not specifically refer to the establishment of a Palestinian state, it nonetheless envisaged an entity with most of the elements required for a sovereign state. A legislative body is one of these requirements and, therefore, the election of the first Palestinian Legislative Council was considered by many as not only a major step in the establishment of a future Palestinian state, but also as an essential component in the establishment of a democratic Palestinian state.

In January 1996, the majority of Palestinians were proud and excited over the chance to participate in their first national elections, despite the fact that these elections were an outcome of the Oslo agreements — towards which many Palestinians have a negative attitude. For the Palestinian electorate, these elections were an unprecedented experience and the opportunity to express their desire for change. They considered the elections not only as a first step towards national independence, but hoped that by voting they could help usher in a democratic, effective and more orderly political system, which would provide them with stability and economic prosperity. More than a year and a half has passed since then, and many Palestinians have yet to come to terms with the fact that democracy does not depend on elections alone, but is based on a whole range of democratic prerequisites which have been largely absent in Palestinian society and which take time to develop. As a result, the high expectations in regard to the first elected Legislative Council have been followed by disillusionment. Neither democracy nor political and economic prosperity came overnight, and now the Legislative Council is — in part wrongly — being held responsible. Most recent public opinion polls have rated the Legislative Council as either negative or ineffective.

This report will place this fairly bleak public evaluation of the Legislative Council in perspective. Does the blame fall entirely on the Council and its members? Do they know the limitations of their jurisdiction? Do they understand the needs of their constituencies? Or, do restrictions by the Executive Authority play a major role in impeding the independence of the Legislative Council? What about the limitations put upon the Council by “Oslo II”: how much can the Council maneuver within the perimeters laid out in this interim agreement? To what extent is the gap between the expectations of the public and the expectations of Council members a valid factor? Or does lack of experience on the part of Council members have a major influence?

In examining the Council’s performance, it is important to take into consideration the fact that there is no opposition bloc within the parliamentary body, due to the boycott of the elections by those parties opposed to the Oslo accords. Moreover, the majority of the Council is affiliated with Fateh, the party of the president and most highly placed Palestinian Authority officials. This by itself places certain limitations on the level of democracy which can be achieved.

Part I of this study will provide a short analysis of the election results. It will give an overview of the election results, explain why the opposition groups did not participate in the elections and the consequences of this boycott. Moreover, Part I will also analyze how people voted during the last elections, whether they would vote differently in future elections, what the Council members think about the voting patterns of the population.

Part II will first give evaluations of thLegislative Council’s performance by the electorate and by the Council members themselves. Part II will also analyze to what extent the Legislative Council is perceived to have fulfilled the expectations of the Palestinian people, and what the obstacles are. Were people expecting the Legislative Council to bring them economic improvement, political stability or a democratic independent Palestinian state? If so, do they feel the Council has met these expectations? If not, why not? Is the Legislative Council effective in representing the population? Is it democratic or to what extent is there an understanding of democratic tenets within the Council? To what extent is the efficiency of the Council affected by the hegemony of the Executive branch of the Palestinian Authority?

In the conclusion, the findings of this study will summarized and a final evaluation on the performance of the Legislative Council will be given.

This comparative analysis — of public opinion and views of members of the Palestinian Legislative Council — has helped to gain a better understanding of the position of the Council in Palestinian society and the Council’s contribution to the process of democratization in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. It has also illuminated some of the constraints under which the Council is operating and which also impede the state-building process. The international community, as well as Palestinians themselves, are clearly interested in the establishment of a democratic regime in the Palestinian autonomous areas, and an obvious question at the current time is whether that is possible or even realistic. Pressure for the rapid emergence of a fully-fledged democracy should, perhaps, instead be translated into finding solutions to the problem of how Palestinian society, and the Council as its representative, can develop democratically given the current constraints. The Palestinian Authority does not govern an independent state, but is rather a limited transitional government, held back both by its involvement in a bankrupt peace process and the difficulties of making the transformation from a revolutionary movement to a governing body.

The Palestinian national and presidential elections of 20 January 1996 were a historic first step toward democratic state-building. The Council which was ushered in by these elections is highly educated, fairly young, and shares a long history of political activism. It also includes five women among its 88 members. The composition of the Legislative Council, and the results of the public opinion poll, clearly indicate that candidates’ history of involvement in the political struggle was of paramount importance to voters, while factors such as age, gender, and family relations were less influential. In short, the electorate, in general, voted according to political rather than traditional considerations. The educational level of voters influenced to a certain extent how they cast their vote and how they intend to vote in the future. Using selected criteria by the democratic nature of their elected Council and the democratically responsible nature of the electorate could be measured, the Palestinian voting public has a relatively high level of civic and democratic awareness. This is partly the, somewhat ironic, result of 30 years of the Israeli military occupation, which culminated in a popular uprising, the intifada. Palestinians became more aware and more political active in general, and the close proximity and exposure, albeit forced, to the negative and positive influences of Israel’s Western society and politics, juxtaposed with the natural influence of neighboring Arab countries, has made Palestinians more discriminating about what they want and don’t want in their own government.

To sum up the findings in brief, the Legislative Council was found to be generally democratic by both the people and members themselves. The Council does appear to represent the views of the public and to be aware of the needs of the people. There was agreement in a number of areas between the Council and the people. The Council has been responsible for opening and promoting debate on key issues within the Palestinian political and social discourse. Furthermore, the 50 percent of the Council that participated in the survey expressed strong support for and belief in some central tenets of democratic governance.

Yet, despite these positive evaluations, which were shared by the public and Council members in general, the Council is widely seen as ineffective and there is popular dissatisfaction with its performance. The question then becomes: what went wrong? The Council’s low public rating cannot be attributed to its lack of democracy or civic responsibility, or to its lack of courage in placing sensitive issues into a public forum.

The reasons for the gap between expectations and reality emerge clearly in this study: the political constraints obstructing the Council, constraints which are both externally and internally generated. The nature of the agreements by which the Council was set up, and the numerous Israeli political and other restraints on the Council’s activities, together present a formidable obstacle to the Council’s functioning as an effective and independent legislative body.

Equally as formidable are the internal political constraints, which are two-fold. There been ongoing interference from the Executive branch of the government, which appears to see the Council’s attempts to monitor and legislate government activity as stepping outside the bounds of its mandate, and therefore employs delaying tactics or outright ignores the Council’s resolutions or other directives. The second problem is the Council’s unwillingness to back up its firmly-worded resolutions with actions, i.e., a vote of no confidence. In September 1997, for example, the Legislative Council recommended that PA president Arafat accept the resignation of his Cabinet, and assign ministerial posts by professional qualifications rather than other considerations. When no changes were made, the Council threatened to hold a no confidence vote. Arafat then responded by 1) promising to accept the two-month-old resignation of his ministers; 2) to reshuffle the Cabinet within six weeks; and 3) to ratify certain laws, provided certain amendments were made. The issue was finally resolved, not in Council, where it had been raised, but in internal Fateh meetings. This leads to one of the fundamental problems affecting the Council: the lack of any real opposition bloc due to boycott of the elections by parties opposing the Oslo accords.

Yet, despite the presence of a large Fateh block in the Council, n the two years that the Council has been functioning, only two of the myriad resolutions passed by the Council have been signed into law by the Fateh-ruled Executive Authority. This failure to achieve results has created frustration among members of the public and within the Council itself, as witnessed by the resignation of Dr. Haidar ‘Abdel Shafi. Nevertheless, the Council has great potential as an institution and there is a process of democratization, slow but unfolding nonetheless, in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The higher visibility of women on the Council and in the government, relative to Israel and other neighboring countries, is one positive sign. The active monitoring of governmental activity and the open debate on corruption, mismanagement and human rights issues is another, as is the Council’s fundamental respect for the principles and practices of democracy.

Therefore, it is important to note that, according to the results of this study, the Legislative Council is inherently democratic and the electorate that voted them in is aware of its democratic and civic responsibilities and rights. However, the Palestinian electorate may have to temper their expectations of an independent and democratic state lying just around the corner. The Council, for its part, must concentrate on working to the fullest extent ofits powers, together with the Executive branch of the Palestinian Authority, to develop a democratically responsible government.Only time will tell if Palestine’s interim agreement with democracy will develop into a permanent arrangement.