JMCC - Poll No. 67, January 2009 - Palestinian opinions after the Gaza War

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last updated Jan. 13, 2010
published Jan. 1, 2009

Poll No. 67, January 2009 - Palestinian opinions after the Gaza War

Summary: The results of the public opinion poll conducted by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC) during the period 29-31 January, 2009 show that the majority of respondents (46.7%) believes that Hamas came out of the war victorious compared with only 9.8% who said that Israel won the war. Over one-third, 37.4%, said that neither side achieved victory in this war.

A striking finding in this field poll is the disparity between opinions in the West Bank and opinions in the Gaza Strip on most of the issues tackled in the poll. For example, 53.3% of respondents in the West Bank believe that Hamas won in the recent war, while 35.2% of respondents in Gaza Strip felt the same.

The poll, with a random sample of 1,198 respondents, found a rise in the popularity of the Hamas movement – especially in the West Bank – and the popularity of its leaders and government in Gaza Strip alongside a decline in the popularity of the Fatah movement and its leaders and government in the West Bank.

When asked if PLC elections were held today, the percentage of those who would vote for Hamas rose to 28.6% in this poll compared with 19.3% last April. On the other hand, the popularity of Fatah Movement declined from 34% last April to 27.9% in this poll.

This change was also reflected in the level of public trust in the two movements. Trust in Hamas rose from 16.6% last November to 27.7% in this poll. With regards to Fatah, popular trust in the movement declined from 31.3% to 26% in the same period. It is clear from the poll that the rise in Hamas’ popularity is due to an increase in its popularity in the West Bank – it rose from 12.8% last November to 26.5% in this poll.

This same trend applies to public trust in leading figures. The percentage of those who trust discharged PM Ismail Hanieh went up from 12.8% last October to 21.1% in this poll; this is due to a rise in his popularity in the West Bank from 9.2% to 18.5%. Trust in President Mahmoud Abbas went down from 15.5% last October to 13.4% in this poll.

The percentage of respondents who believe that the performance of the government of Fayyad is better than the performance of Hanieh’s government declined from 36% last April to 26.9% in this poll, while those who believe that the performance of Fayyad’s government is worse than Hanieh’s government rose from 29.1% to 40.7%.

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