Summary: * The survey showed that the Palestinian people, by the end of the first year of the Intifada, became sterner in political positions towards Israel, the peace process and negotiations. The percentage of those who support the continuation of the Intifada increased from 80.2 percent last April to 85.3 percent this September.
Also, support for the Oslo Agreement declined from 38.1 percent in last June to 29.2 percent this September.
Of those interviewed, 41.9 percent consider the peace process dead and there is no possibility of resuming negotiations rising from 27.4 percent who supported this view last June.
The survey showed that there is a rise in hard-line goals of the Intifada, where the percentage of those considering the goals are to end the occupation based on UN Security Council resolution 242 and 338 dropped from 45.2 percent to 40.1 percent, while those who consider the goal of the Intifada is liberating all Palestinian soil increased from 41.2 percent last June to 48.6 percent this September.
* One of the most noticeable results was that the Palestinian people, after one year of the Intifada, with their staunch support of its continuation, is divided on the feasibility of achieving the goals of the Intifada. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed said they are optimistic or very optimistic that the Intifada will achieve its goals.
There is a noticeable change in the political positions of Palestinians. Palestinian support for a two-state solution as the ideal solution dropped from 47.2 percent in June to 42.9 percent this September, but Palestinian support for an ideal solution embodied in a bi-national state in all of historic Palestine increased from 22.2 percent last June to 31.8 percent this September.
* Palestinian support for factions has also changed slightly where Palestinian trust in Fateh more than any other faction dropped from 34.9 percent in June to 29.2 percent this September while trust in Hamas Movement increased from 18.6 percent in June to 20.7 percent this September.
Palestinian President Yasser Arafat maintained being the most trusted personality of those interviewed despite a decrease in this trust from 27.8 percent last June to 23.5 percent this September.
* The survey showed that the Palestinian people, after one year on the Intifada, increased its support to violence and decreased trust in negotiations and the peace process. For instance, those who consider armed operations a suitable response in these circumstances increased from 70.6 percent last June to 84.6 percent this September. Those who oppose armed operations and see it unsuitable and unbeneficial within the current circumstances decreased from 19.8 percent to 9.9 percent for the same period.
On the question of favoring the peaceful popular characteristics of the Intifada as opposed to the military characteristics, those supporting a military intifada increased from 14.9 percent to 19.1 percent while those supporting both peaceful and military characteristics remained almost steady.
When interviewees were asked which path is the best to achieve the Palestinian people’s aims: Intifada or negotiations? Those supporting the Intifada increased from 28.8 percent last June to 35.9 percent this September.
* On the reasons for negotiations failure and the erfuption o the Intifada a year ago, the majority of Palestinians, 47 percent, said that Sharon’s visit to al-Aqsa Mosque was the reason, while 26.5 percent said that the continuation of the occupation is the reason, and only 13.4 percent considered the failure of negotiations the reason.
The majority of Palestinians, 58.3 percent, believe that the failure of Camp David negotiations was because of the Jerusalem issue, followed by the Jewish settlement issue, 19.6 percent and then the refugee issue, 15.7 percent.
* The Israeli assassination policy is the most harmful to the Palestinian people according to 34.3 percent of those interviewed, followed by the policy of closures and checkpoints, 26 percent.
* The majority of Palestinians, 50 percent, considers and evaluate the Israeli peace camp role and behavior as bad, 36 percent said it is unacceptable while 11 percent considered it acceptable and only 2 percent considered it good.
Methodology:
A random sample of 1198 people over the age of 18 were interviewed face-to-face throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip between 11-17 September 2001. The interviews were conducted in randomly selected homes, and the subjects inside each home were also selected randomly according to Kish tables. The interviews were conducted in 60 sampling points chosen randomly according to population.
In the West Bank, 758 people were surveyed from the following areas: Jenin: Jenin, Jenin Refugee Camp (RC), Kufr Rai’, Silat al-Harthia, Tubas and Arrabeh . Nablus: Nablus, Bidia, Hiwara, Azmout, Zawata, kufr al- Deik , Urief, Askar RC and Deir sharaf . Tulkarem & Qalqilya : Tulkarem, Tulkarem RC, Beit Leed, Qalqilia, ‘lllar and Azzoun . Hebron: Hebron, Halhoul, al-Fawwar RC, Dura , Bani N’iem , Sa’eer, Beit-Ula and Tarqoumia. Bethlehem: Bethlehem, al-Khader, Bateer, Husan and Deiheishe RC. Jericho: Jericho, Ain al-Sultan RC . Ramallah & al-Bireh : al-Bireh, Ramallah, al- Jalazon,Birzeit, Sinjil, Nilin, Silwad and Shuqba . Jerusalem: a-Dahia, A-ram, Shufat, Beit Hanaia, Old City, Ras al-Amoud, Qalandia RC, al-‘Isawia, Silwan, Biddu, Kufr ‘Aqab, Qattannah and a-Sheikh Jarah .
In the Gaza Strip, 440 people were surveyed from: Gaza North: Jabalia refugee camp, Jabalia, Beit Lahia and Beit Hanoun. Gaza: Sheikh Radwan, al-Nasser, a-Durj, al-Tuffah, Sabra, a-Zeitoun, a-Shajai’a, Shati RC, al-Rimal south and al-Rimal north. Deir al- Balah: al-Nusseirat RC, al-Maghazi RC, Deir al- Balah and al-Bureij RC . Khan Younis: Khan Younis RC, Khan Younis, Bani Suheila, al-khuza’ and al-Qararah . Rafah: Rafah, Rafah RC and Tal al-Sultan RC . The margin of error is 3 percent, with a confidence level of 95.
Sample distribution
51.8% of the respondents were from West Bank, 11.4% from Jerusalem, 36.8% from the Gaza Strip.
30.0% said they live in villages, 16.4% in refugee camps, 53.6% in towns/cities.
51.2% were male, 48.8% were female.
65.8% were married, 24.3%, single, 4.8% widowed, 1.8% divorced, 3.3% no answer.
The average age of the respondents was 34 years.
Occupation of respondents
Students 11.1% laborers 11.0% Farmers/fishermen 3.9%
Craftsmen 1.7% Businessmen/private business 6.7%
Employees e.g. secretaries/municipal employees/teachers/nurses 18.1
Professionals - e.g. doctors/lawyers/ pharmacists/engineers 1.8
Housewives 33.5% , unemployed 9.8% and retired 0.4% , no answer 2.0%
* JMCC Public Opinion Polls are supported by a fund from Fredrich Ebert Stiftung Foundation, Germany.
|